10 Obersvations: Hitting Trends Within The Pirates System

This week's 10 observations looks at a trend on some hitting prospects throughout the system, and fatigue playing a factor late in season.

Murphy 9/5: Did some thinking during the Altoona game, and it feels like since the Pirates are outsourcing a lot of their development, Matt Gorski should be the next one they ship out. The swing mechanics are so funky, but it seems like he is just a slight change away from really just unleashing. Maybe it’s too late, but hard to just throw away that kind of power potential that can legitimately play centerfield.

Murphy: I won’t say that’s the case with all of them, or that a player can’t get better when they get sent back to the minors, but I’ve noticed an interesting trend with some of the players in Triple-A.

Nick Gonzales is hitting the ball pretty well, and Roansy Contreras has looked mostly good since getting to Indianapolis.

It’s good to see that, but it also should be remembered that both have seen their fair share of major league opposition now, and they should probably be succeeding more in AAA than before.

If we want to get a pulse on if they’ve improved, you have to pay attention to what it was that got them sent back to the minors.

Murphy: Speaking of Contreras, with about a month left, I think getting him back in the majors in some form or fashion would leave the perfect amount of time to get an idea at the progress he’s made.

The Pirates could probably use another pitcher that can log multiple innings on that staff right now.

Murphy: Paying attention to the radar readings of some of the prospects out there, and it will probably easy to forget that most pitchers are way past what they’ve thrown recently so there is probably a lot of fatigue right now. So we shouldn’t read anything into seeing Anthony Solometo throwing 89-91 again.

He got up to the 93-94 that he did in high school, and maintained it throughout the season. Thomas Harrington also sounded like he has been a tad under what he’s used to throwing as well, but still getting good results.

It also should be noted that Bubba Chandler has seemingly gotten strong as the season as gone on.

Nola (9/7): We’re winding down on the minor league season, and RHP Sean Sullivan saved probably his best professional start for one of the better late season Double-A rosters.

Sullivan took care of business on Thursday, throwing seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits, an unearned run, and not walking a batter while striking out nine. It’s the third time this season that he was able to complete seven innings, and the nine strike outs were the second highest of his career, behind a game where he struck out eleven last season (also against a Nationals affiliate).

The 2021 8th round pick is more of a high floor prospect than high ceiling, but he’s put together a strong year in Altoona dropping his ERA under 4.00 after his Thursday start. Pitched all year at just 22 years old, turning 23 in October.

WTM (9/8): The Jack Suwinski, three-true outcome model seems as though it’s becoming the norm in the Pirates’ system. Low average, pretty good power, high walk rates and astronomical K rates. A case in point is Rodolfo Nolasco. After hitting a game-winning grand slam on September 7, his numbers look like this:

218/353/448
BB%: 15.8%
K%: 43.2%

Compare to Suwinski:

206/332/445
BB%: 14.7%
K%: 33.2%

It’s not just Nolasco. Here are the rankings for the Bradenton hitters in the ten-team Florida State League:

BA: 7th
OBP: 1st
SLG: 3rd
HR: 2nd
BB%: 1st (by a mile)
K%: 1st

WTM: One of the Pirates’ more off-beat experiments is Shawn Ross, who’s been with Greensboro all year. Ross went to an NAIA college, where he hit for a lot of power but also struck out a ton. He wasn’t drafted and spent 2022 in independent ball, where he hit for a lot of power and struck out a ton. He signed a minor league deal with the Bucs last December. With the Hoppers, Ross is hitting for good power and striking out a ton. In fact, he’s striking out in almost exactly half his ABs, so he fits in with the Pirates. He’s hitting 201/327/443 with a dozen HRs. He has a massive home/road split, but it’s the opposite of the usual; he’s doing better on the road. The odd part comes from the fact that he’s catching. Originally an infielder, he started catching some time after Abrahan Gutierrez moved up to Altoona. He’s thrown out 33% of base stealers, well above the league average of 24%, so he seems to be doing something right. He does have an awful lot of passed balls.

WTM (9/9): Another player who seems to be emerging from obscurity, also at Greensboro, is Luke Brown. He was a college teammate of Henry Davis at Louisville, drafted in the ninth round in 2021 as a very speedy outfielder with a dubious bat. One thing that jumps out is that he didn’t hit a home run during his college career. In 2021-22, he played to form as a seldom-used backup in rookie ball and class A, batting .191 and slugging just .265. This year, he played in only 26 games in the season’s first three months and hit almost nothing. Since July, though, he’s batting 339/393/591, earning regular playing time and a spot in the middle of the order. On Thursday, he had four hits, including two home runs, and eight RBIs. On the season, he’s now at 272/368/477 with eight home runs.

WTM: And another dark horse: Joe Perez. The Pirates signed him to a minor league deal after Houston released him this August. He got a $1.6M bonus as a second round draft pick in 2017; he’s not eligible for minor league free agency until after the 2024 season. Perez is a bat-only third baseman who’s hit respectably in the minors. He has a career line of 271/344/443 that’s pretty much what he’s hit at all levels. It seems odd that Houston would release him, but he’s been plagued by injuries throughout his career. The Pirates sent him to Altoona, where he’s torching the ball, hitting 329/465/633 in 23 games as I write this. It’s unwise to get too excited about it; Perez has played 95 games in AAA, so he should do well in AA. But a 1.098 OPS is still better than, say, .850. Hopefully, he’ll go to Indy once the Curve’s season is over.

WTM: Aaron Shortridge has been something of a tough-luck guy in the Pirates’ system. The team liked him a lot coming out of the pandemic season, but Tommy John wiped out his 2021 season and he spent the second half of 2022 in TJ recovery mode. So 2023 was seemingly a big season for him, but he’s sitting in Altoona with a 5.19 ERA. Most of the time, he pitches well, but when he gets on a bad run, it’s bad. He had a four-game stretch in late May to early June when he allowed 18 earned runs in 11 innings. He was on an outstanding run in August, with a 1.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over five starts. Then, in his first September start, he was bizarrely left in to give up 12 earned runs over two and two-thirds innings, adding over 70 points to his ERA. He has another year before minor league free agency.