10 Observations: Taking notice of Greensboro pitching
Greensboro pitching standing out in the early stages of the 2024 season.
Murphy 4/11 - It shouldn’t be too much of a shock because he was coming off of Tommy John last year, but the Hunter Barco I’ve seen on the mound this year has looked completely different than in Bradenton in 2023.
I haven’t gotten a radar reading yet on the fastball, but the one I saw him throw last year was incapable of blowing hitters away like he’s doing.
So far, he’s flashed three above-average pitches, at the very least, and I still think the change-up has a chance to be a plus offering.
The Pirates are loaded with pitching prospects, and we may eventually need to add a new name to that upper tier.
Murphy (4/12) - When he can throw strikes, man, Luis Peralta has that stuff. He had things going for him this past Friday for the Grasshoppers. He pitched two innings, didn’t allow a hit or walk, and struck out five batters. Of the 32 pitches he threw, 20 went for strikes.
This was always a role he was meant to move to, so it will be interesting to see if he can find any consistency working out the bullpen this year.
Murphy (4/12) - I’ve been asked on multiple podcasts, and I’ve been a guest on who I thought could be a sleeper guy that no one is talking about.
Even though I lean towards the pitching side of things, my answer all offseason has been Omar Alfonzo.
Bradenton has struggled offensively this year, with Alfonzo being one of the few consistent hitters. He hit his first home run of the season Friday night, an absolute missile.
He looks a little more filled out, so perhaps first base is his final home, although I thought he was excellent behind the plate last year.
It’s clear, though, that the bat will be the carrying tool.
Murphy 4/12 - I don’t think Carlson Reed has a future as a starter, but after watching his first two starts, I’m willing to give him maybe a little extra time than I generally would to figure things out.
His secondary stuff is insanely good. After his first start, his sweeper got one of the best Stuff+ grades in the Florida State League, and the change-up plays well.
I was also blown back by the fastball metrics and could see it a bit in his last start. It’s just going to come down to maintaining that velocity and throwing strikes consistently.
NolaJeffy 4/12 - Greensboro Starters combined for 16 IP and two earned runs (as of Thursday evening). Dotel, Ercolani, and Barco each threw four scoreless, with Reilly tossing four innings and two earned runs. Winston-Salem isn't the hitter’s haven that is a lot of South Atlantic League ballparks, but it's still encouraging to see. All four have been able to miss a lot of bats thanks in large part due to quality fastballs, in addition to some promising secondaries.
Murphy - Lonnie White Jr. feels so close to a complete breakout. You see the rapid improvement, and he constantly flexes that raw power, showing his strength in ripping breaking pitches on the outer half of the plate.
I feel like he’s always going to be working with, at best, a 45 when it comes to the hit tool, but the rest of the belt is so loaded he could make it work if he gets there with it.
The strikeouts need to come down a bit, but he still hasn’t played a whole season’s worth of games in his minor league career, and he’s playing in High-A in what would be his draft year if he went to college.
Bonus - NolaJeffy - I just wanted to mention it as an oddity, but in the first inning of his start, Alessandro Ercolani was wearing sports goggles. Later, we noticed he was no longer wearing them. Curious if they were causing an issue or he just decided he'd rather not wear them. We'll see in future starts.
WTM 4/13 - In the 2022 and 2023 drafts, the Pirates spent three high picks on hitters whom scouts thought had highly advanced hit tools: Termarr Johnson (1st round, 2022), Mitch Jebb (2nd round, 2023) and Garret Forrester (3rd round, 2023). The three have produced some striking parallels. In their first action after being drafted, all three showed the contact ability they were reputed to have. But after spending fall instructionals and spring training with the Pirates, all three suddenly started swinging and missing at a frightening rate.
That’s continued this year with Johnson, who, as I write this, is batting .083 with a 30.0% K rate. Jebb, who struck out only 11 times in 153 plate appearances in 2023, has fanned ten times in 23 PAs this year, a 43.5% K rate. Forrester is still at Bradenton, a low level for a third-rounder from a major college program. He’s batting .143 and fanning at a 32.0% clip. The sudden change with three hitters who were supposed to be high-contact guys, all coming at the same point and producing the same result, is too striking to be a coincidence. There’s something deeply and fundamentally wrong with how this organization coaches hitters.
Murphy 4/13 - I may have said this last week, but I’ll say it again because I’m reminded of it almost daily: Javier Rivas may be one of, if not the best, defensive infielders in the system right now.
The Pirates have two of them in the majors in Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jared Triolo, but after that, Rivas may be closer to Jack Brannigan than some think.
The next step is to start getting the ball in the air more, as he’s hitting the ball hard this year.
Murphy 4/14 - According to the Winston-Salem broadcast, Wilber Dotel hit triple-digits with his fastball, twice, as well as being 97+ a few other times in the first inning of his Sunday start.
He didn’t make it out of the second, which was more than likely a mix of a strict pitch count (the second time he pitched this week) and him losing his control after walking back-to-back batters.
I haven’t seen triple-digits from Dotel before, but he wasn’t a stranger to upper-90s first-inning fastballs last year in Bradenton.
Dotel has a live arm, the work is being effective deeper into games so he can remain in the rotation. If he has to slide to the bullpen though, a triple-digit fastball would be a good starting point.
NolaJeffy 4/14 - His stat line isn't something to write home about, but Tres Gonzalez had a nice finish to the weekend. He started the year 0-for-16 in his first four games, but in his final three he went 4-for-10, with a double and triple on Sunday. Most importantly, he has only struck out four times in 31 plate appearances. The ability to make contact and not whiff has continued to Double-A, with the hits hopefully beginning to drop for him.
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Dotel and Ercolani were major curiosities last year. Poor peripherals, esp BB and K rates, and erratic velocity, but major progress with the results. I was left wondering whether they really had upside or would just remain curiosities. Maybe the former?
Another GBO pitcher to take note of is Enmanuel Chapman. He's a big RHP from Cuba who supposedly throws in the mid-90s. He attracted some attention when he became eligible to sign, but he was something of a mystery because his track record in int'l competition was abysmal due to non-existent control. He's thrown a whopping 3.1 IP so far but he hasn't walked anybody.