2024 MLB Draft: What the mocks are saying the day of the draft
A look at the recent mock drafts the morning of day one
The MLB Draft will begin tonight, with the first 103 selections being made, starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Ben Cherington and the Pittsburgh Pirates have the ninth overall selection and will pick three times on day one (9, 37, 47).
Due to how up in the air things have been at the top of the draft, it’s been hard to get a feel for where the Pirates might go. It’s hard to know who will be available by the time they are on the clock.
Here is how things could shake out based on some of the mock drafts that are currently out.
Editors note: This article was written the night before. I will do my best to update it if any site has something new. I know for sure that FanGraphs will be doing an updated one on Sunday; I will adjust accordingly as they are available. So, if it’s a little behind, bear with me. I will have it updated at some point.
First Pick
I found 10 websites with mock drafts (all will be linked at the bottom of the article), and so far, only three players have been repeated.
Nick Kurtz - 3
Konnor Griffin - 2
James Tibbs - 2
Braden Montgomery - 2
Kurtz is by far the favorite on the internet. Most note that he should be the top bat available and fits a need for the Pirates. First-base-only profiles, instead of the top 10, don’t have the best track record lately, so the Pirates would be banking on Kurtz being different.
There has been much talk that the Pirates have been heavily scouting the two top prep players, Griffin being one of them. He has among the highest upside in the draft, but as a prep player, he isn’t the fast-rising prospect many fans seek.
Tibbs would also fit as a more advanced bat and does have a better track record with a wood bat. Injuries have cost Kurtz time in the Cape and with Team USA, and Cherington has noticeably favored players who have shown success with wood bats.
Montgomery started the year as a potential middle-of-the-first-round pick before going off at Texas A&M. Some mocks have him in the Top 5, but none really have him sliding past the Pirates.
It would be interesting on who the Pirates would pick if given the choice of Kurtz and Montgomery. The latter gives you some defensive value in right field, with perhaps the best arm in the class.
Others showing up on mocks: Bryce Rainer
Rainer is one of the top two prep players that the Pirates have reportedly been scouting heavily. ESPN seems to believe that if he makes it to the Pirates, he will be the pick, stating that this would likely be ‘as far as Rainer falls.’
Comp Round
The Pirates also have a pick in Comp Rd A with the 37th overall pick. Five of the mock drafts have predictions of who they may take, none of them are repeats.
Bryce Meccage, Drew Beam, Griff O’Ferrall, Joey Oakie, Kellen Lindsey
Meccage, the nephew of the Pirates’ bullpen coach, has been linked to the Pirates in multiple mock drafts on separate websites. The Pirates like to go with a prep arm during the early stages of the draft, and two are here with Meccage and Oakie.
From Iowa, Oakie is one of the top prep arms available in the draft, and there is the outside shot he goes before the Pirates pick.
O’Ferrall fits a pattern for the Pirates of drafting/adding high-contact middle infielders with a questionable power tool. He didn’t play in the Cape but did have a strong summer league performance in the Northwoods League.
He does seem like a legitimate candidate to stick at the shortstop position.
Lindsey is one of the better prep position players in the next tier of prospects. He has enough speed that he could be a fit in center field should he not be able to stick at shortstop.
Even Further
47th - Ryan Prager
83rd - Cole Messina
The Sporting News did a full three-round mock and had the Pirates taking Texas A&M left-handed pitcher Ryan Prager and South Carolina catcher Cole Messina with their next two picks.
They went heavy on SEC pitchers last year, and Prager is one of the best left-handed starters in the draft, so this would make sense. The Pirates could also use some extra catching depth in the system in Messina.
It will be interesting to see how the draft unfolds and how the Pirates approach things. As we can see, there are many paths they could follow; it all really depends on how things unfold with the first eight picks.
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Assuming the earlier picks don’t get weird, which they often do, this seems to boil down to Kurtz or Griffin, unless Cherington decides to get clever. You’d hope the divergence in outcomes between Davis and Skenes taught him not to rely on strategery.
9. Kurtz
37. Meccage
47. Shields
83. Aloy