A deeper look at Nick Gonzales' hot start with Indianapolis
How sustainable is Nick Gonzales' hot start, especially in the majors?
Many of the minor league hitting prospects have had rough seasons, but one standout has been former first-round pick Nick Gonzales.
The first pick of the Ben Cherington era has been one of the best hitters in the International League so far, recently having his 14-game hit streak ended, as well as the last time around being the first time he didn’t reach base this season.
On the season, Gonzales has slashed .385/.434/.593 with two home runs, 11 doubles, 13 RBI and a wRC+ of 167.
Gonzales, who turns 25 in May, is off to a strong start. Given the major league team’s offensive struggles, he may be able to provide a spark for the Pirates.
The Good
The biggest question about Gonzales going into the year was his strikeout rate, especially against breaking and off-speed pitches. His strikeout rate has climbed throughout the minors as he’s moved up the ladder.
He’s had an overall strikeout rate of 17.2% this season, nearly 10% lower than last year while in Triple-A. Even when looking specifically at breaking pitches, he’s struck out at a lower clip (11.4%) than he has against fastballs (17.5%).
Gonzales is batting .314 with an OPS of .829 against breaking pitches. Combine that with his .449 average and 1.220 OPS against fastballs, it’s easy to see why he’s off to such a great start.
The contact in the zone has been excellent (86.2%), and he’s worked his overall whiff rate down to 24.2%.
That being said, is there any cause for concern that some of this might not translate to the next level?
The Questionable
While Gonzales is making contact and picking up hits against breaking pitches, there are a few questions about the approach and the quality he is getting behind the contact.
He has just a .239 xwOBA, which gauges the quality of contact he’s getting based on how he is getting on base against breaking pitches. He is still chasing out of the zone with a 35.1% out-of-zone swing rate but climbs over 40% when facing non-fastballs.
That’s not even counting in off-speed pitches, where he has a near 50% whiff rate and has a 42.9% strikeout rate.
Gonzales has a higher in-zone contact rate against spin than he does fastballs, but if he is constantly chasing out of the zone, that’s where major league pitchers will throw it.
What to Do?
It’s an interesting situation for Gonzales. You would probably expect a 24-year-old former first-round pick in his second year at Triple-A to do this, although maybe not to this level.
Some underlying numbers suggest Gonzales could struggle again when he gets his opportunity due to the quality of contact he’s been getting in Triple-A.
Really there is only one way to know for sure, and if the Pirates are looking to shake things up a bit, he’s certainly made a strong case to be a part of that.
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Looks like Nick has ditched the Haines approach and sacrificed exit velocity for . . . you know . . . actual results.
I’m sure Haines will fix that first chance he gets.
If Nick has a 35% whiff rate, but only strikes out 17% of the time, that tells me his is swinging away early and has a different approach with 2 strikes.