A Jack Suwinski turnaround would be huge for the Pirates
Was the struggles Jack Suwinski has had always destined to happen? Is there any fixing?
There might not be a player on the Pirates’ roster right now who needed a three-hit game more than Jack Suwinski.
Despite coming in a losing effort, picking up multiple hits, one of which was a home run, had to be an excellent feeling for Suwinski, who has had a less-than-ideal season that included one trip back to Indianapolis.
After leading the team in home runs last year, it’s been an extreme struggle for Suwinski, batting under the Mendoza line with just seven home runs in over 200 plate appearances.
Since entering the league, Suwinski has been a high-risk player. His expected batting average (xBA) has hovered around the same in his three years with the Pirates (.204, .218, .215).
He’s also always had dangerously high strikeout and whiff rates that were kept in check due to him not chasing out of the zone. His quality of contact against fastballs has been the most significant change from last year to this.
Suwinski slugged over .500 against fastballs last year and had the data to back it up (.519 xSLG and .381 xwOBA). Both metrics measure the quality of contact through exit velocity and launch angle, among other things.
This year, Suwinski has a .290 xSLG and .262 xwOBA against fastballs, a far cry from where he was a year ago. His Run Value on Baseball Savant is a -5, which is by far his worst number.
One game doesn’t change much in the bigger picture, but Suwinski has also been a notoriously streaky hitter in his career.
While his game has always been volatile, he’s made it work up to this year. You could always make a case that this was always destined to happen, but he’s always found a way to make it work.
At this point in the season in 2023, Suwinski had a 129 wRC+, with a 15.7 BB% and an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph. Those are all down, some by quite a bit, with 53 wRC+, 9.9 BB%, and 88 mph EV marks.
It will be interesting if Suwinski can build off this performance or if it will remain an anomaly in what is turning into a rough season.
The Pirates need some offense in the worst of ways, and having Suwinski turn somewhat a corner would be a huge internal addition to the major league team.
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The only thing that’s going to help Jack is getting to an org that knows more about hitting than the average Mongolian goat herder.
What does it say when a guy is posting career highs in swing rate and contact rate while posting career lows in quality of contact?
I think it means he's swinging at too many pitches and making too much contact.
I don't find the destined-to-happen argument very compelling for Jack specifically because he isn't failing through the manner in which his extremities lead.
This isn't Joey Gallo teetering over the edge of how many strikeouts one can sustain while still being productive.
If anything, 2024 Jack Suwinski is doing the *opposite* of what led to his success.
Think about this: not once in Jack Suwinski's career has he posted an above average month (>100 wRC+) with an in-zone swing rate above 70%. Never.
Yet, he's hovered above 70% in every month of 2024.
Not only is Jack Suwinski inarguable evidence against this braindead narrative about one-size-fits-all Andy Haines, he unfortunately demonstrates what the modern major league pitcher does to hitters who are too aggressive in the zone.
This is a guy trying to do too much. Changed his swing and approach and is finding out that's just not him. Now he's left trying to force that forward or adjust back on the fly against big league arms and his timing's a mess. Needs a reset and he'll be fine.