Arizona Fall League Preview: Players to Watch
Players to watch during the 2024 Arizona Fall League
The 2024 Arizona Fall League is set to begin tonight as prospects from all over baseball converge to participate.
We know the Pirates are bringing over nine prospects, five pitchers, and four hitters while playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions. There are plenty of other players around the AFL worth monitoring. I go through two from each team that I am watching this fall.
Glendale Desert Dogs
A first-round pick by the Chicago White Sox, Colson Montgomery hit 18 home runs this year in Triple-A but struggled overall with a .214/.329/.381 line across 130 games played. He’s still just 22 years old and expected to be a core piece for the White Sox at some point in the future.
As bad as things went for the White Sox this year, some hope may be on the horizon, with Montgomery potentially being some of it. Many of the hitting metrics aren’t far off, but he has to get the strikeouts down.
Zyhir Hope was part of the Michael Busch trade after being drafted in the 11th round of the 2023 draft. He missed a chunk of the season with an injury but was solid in 54 games at the Single-A level.
Hope packs a punch for a smaller frame, as he hit nine home runs in those 54 games and could have 20/20 potential. The contact rates were super encouraging, and he even garnered some Top 100 talk during the season.
Now healthy, he can be one of the more dynamic players in the AFL and one of the youngest.
Mesa Solar Sox
I cheated a bit with this one, as it’s nearly impossible to limit it to two when you start bringing up prospects in the Rays’ system.
Starting with Moises Ballesteros, this could give a preview of one of the Cubs' young hitters in the system. He made it to Triple-A at 20 and didn’t look out of place (.281/.340/.454, 10 HR).
The batted ball data is impressive, even more so when you consider his age compared to the level he was at. Based on the data, the big question will be whether he can cut the chase down.
There are also questions about whether or not he is a catcher at the next level, and at his size (5’7”), his defensive options are limited.
But he can hit, and it will be fun to watch in a more hitter-friendly environment in Arizona.
The Rays have several intriguing names who will play, including a familiar name for some Pirates fans: Jack Hartman, the prospect they traded in the Ji-Man Choi deal.
At 25 years old, Hartman pitched at two levels, striking out 50 in 44 innings pitched and getting the walk rate under 10% (8.2%).
Xavier Issac is the more prominent name on the roster, a top-100 prospect. He has some of the most power in the minors and hit 15 home runs in 71 games with High-A Bowling Green this year, but strikeouts got the best of him in Double-A. He hit just three home runs in 31 games after the promotion.
Another Pirates connection, Tre Morgan was the first baseman at LSU when Paul Skenes was there. He emerged as one of the best contact hitters in all of the minors.
Morgan finished the year with a combined .324 average and struck out 48 times in 373 plate appearances (11%).
Peoria Javelinas
Another name familiar to the Pirates’ fanbase, Jun-Seok Shim, is set to make his 2024 debut in the AFL. He didn’t pitch during the regular season due to a shoulder injury but avoided surgery.
He was an international free agent signing of note, but due to injuries, he has pitched just eight innings in the minors in two years.
Those who have seen him pitch have returned with strong reports; it has just been few and far between.
The Padres will send the two youngest players to the AFL—Leo De Vries and Ethan Salas.
De Vries played the entire season as a 17-year-old at Single-A and didn’t look out of place. In 75 games, he hit .237/.361/.441 with 11 home runs and 13 stolen bases. He had 36 extra-base hits after adding 22 doubles and three triples.
He’s a player that some have said has the potential to be the top prospect in all of baseball, and he’ll get a look at some pretty advanced pitching here.
Salas was where De Vries was last year, except the Padres pushed him more aggressively. He finished the 2023 season at Double-A, where he struggled.
He played over 100 games at High-A and didn’t hit well, with a slash of .206/.288/.311 with just four home runs in 469 plate appearances. Salas is a strong defensive catcher, throwing out 27.7% of base stealers this year, but there is room for improvement at the plate.
Salt River Rafters
There aren’t many top-end prospects, but Diamondbacks are sending their first-round pick from the 2023 draft out of Stanford, Tommy Troy, to the AFL. FanGraphs gives him an 80 grade for speed, and he swiped 16 bags in 65 games in High-A this year.
He flashed some solid contact rates, although his overall line wasn’t impressive (.227/.319/.347) and didn’t hit for much power. The Diamondbacks have plenty of options in the majors regarding the infield, and that’s not including Jordan Lawlar.
This could be an opportunity to showcase him should they look to trade from a position of strength.
A former top-100 prospect, Robert Hassell III has become more of a forgotten name in the Nationals’ system, especially seeing the success of James Wood and Dylan Crerws in the majors.
The former first-round pick has struggled, both on the field and staying on the field. He finally made it out of Double-A but posted a -11 wRC+ in 69 Triple-A plate appearances.
Hassell has struggled to impact the ball, with just 16 extra-base hits in 362 plate appearances this year. He’s still 23 (he turned it in August), but time is running out for Hassell. If he can put things together, he could join one of baseball's most exciting young outfields.
Scottsdale Scorpions
The Pirates are among the teams that will send prospects to the Scorpions, highlighted by Termarr Johnson and Khristian Curtis. There are a few other names to watch that are coming from other teams.
Bryce Eldridge could be in line for some nice travel awards, as he’s made a stop at each level of full-season baseball in the Giants organization. It was less than 20 combined games in the upper level, but he still wrapped up the 2024 regular season in Triple-A.
He’s almost the opposite of Bubba Chandler, as he was a two-way player who turned to hitting instead of pitching.
The 19-year-old Eldridge (who will turn 20 during the AFL) hit .289/.372/.513 with 23 home runs, 27 doubles, and a walk rate of 11.4%.
Another prep first-round pick from the 2023 draft, Jett Williams, missed most of the 2024 season with an injury, only playing in 33 games. Most of them came with Double-A, where he struggled (.172/.287/.241).
He got into six games with Triple-A to close the season and went 8-22 with four doubles, eight walks to seven strikeouts, and a stolen base. He’s got a lot of speed (45 stolen bases in 2023) and walks plenty (over 100 last year), and the AFL will give him a chance to make up some plate appearances.
Surprise Saguaros
The power combination between Chase DeLauter and Jac Caglianone may be the best duo in the AFL this year.
Caglianone was drafted in the top 10 in this past draft by the Kansas City Royals and was immediately in the conversation for the player with the most raw power in the minors.
He hit two home runs and nine doubles in 126 plate appearances in High-A while hitting .241/.302/.388.
As was the case in Florida, Caglianone had good contact rates and insane exit velocity numbers, but he’s a free-swinger who has chased nearly 50% of the pitches out of the zone he’s faced so far.
That will need to come down if he wants to have more success in the upper levels, and this is a good test for him.
When he’s on the field, DeLauter is among the best prospects in baseball; the issue has been keeping him there. He played in only 39 games this year, batting .261/.341/.500 with eight home runs and 19 walks to only 22 strikeouts in 164 plate appearances.
He also played in the AFL last year, batting .299/.385/.529 with five home runs, 27 RBI, and five stolen bases in 23 games. He also walked (14) more than he struck out (11).
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This will be the first offseason of my 42 year life that I don't pay any attention to at all. Cherington is a charlatan. A dancing clown meant to keep us from getting angry at Nutting. Shelton is Charlatanton's shield. Why would I pay attention to an institution that does nothing but piss me off? At some point, that's on me. Turning a new leaf. I suggest all of you who are fed up like I am do too although I can't recommend this community enough aside from C22 who is a constant and unrepentant douchnozzle. I didn't outright win the preseason prediction at Bucsdugout but I tied so I know a thing or two.