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hamiltonthebabeporter's avatar

Great deep dive by Eno in The Athletic today about Skenes. Talks about his drop in velo (and mentions that he is throwing a bit more across his body this year) and drop in movement in his pitches, mentioning his reliance on his fastball compared to other pitchers that have had drops in their stuff+ this year (like Alcantra).

I especially appreciated this part of the article, though: "For the season, he has the ninth-best strikeout-minus-walk rate, an enormously powerful predictive stat. He sits between Jacob deGrom and Cristopher Sánchez on that list. He gets there with the eight-best strikeout rate, just behind Zack Wheeler and some dude named Tarik Skubal. And this skill has continued through the slump: he's ninth in K-BB since June began, he's 14th since July began, and in his worst stretch over the last 30 days, he's 27th. None of those numbers predict a middling ERA.

The advanced ERA estimators agree. His xERA, which looks at the quality of contact along with the strikeouts and walks, thinks he should have a 3.11 ERA. His SIERA, which does something similar and usually does well in projection battles, says he should have a 3.10 ERA. Last year, when he had a 1.97 ERA, his SIERA said he should have had a 3.10 ERA. In terms of component results, not much has changed. The defense behind him has been a little worse — only 10 pitchers have had worse defense behind him this year — and the luck has been a little worse."

In other words, he doesn't seem to be overly concerned by Skenes performance. Velo drop is concerning but seems to suggest a bit more a change in mechanics than injury. And the overall performance might be more bad luck and bad defense than anything larger.

WTM's avatar

Looking at the Pipeline top 30, after Seth the next pitcher is Levi Sterling at *12th.* I certainly don't take these things as gospel, but a year ago I didn't think I'd be saying they really need to add some pitching prospects. (Not a knock on Sterling, btw. He's been really good despite a mediocre ERA.)

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