Thanks for this detailed breakdown and explanation!
A cynical view, though one based on history, is that the Pirates (Nutting) won't be the ones paying him $20MM in 2028 and possibly not even the $18MM in 2027. That's another reason to look at the LRD over the CBT, as the CBT is prematurely giving Nutting credit for something that he might never fully spend.
I disagree with this take, and here’s why: there’s a healthy amount of risk in signing any pitcher to an extension of this size. If he suffers a decline a performance, which isn’t that far out of the realm of possibility, then Nutting will be on the hook for the full haul, especially if that decline substantial. Even team friendly extensions carry substantial risk (see: Polanco, Gregory), which is why some teams like the A’s, never seem to do a lot of them.
I wasn't saying that they don't deserve credit for signing Keller because there is risk and they could be on the hook for all of it, just that I'm not crediting Nutting for running a $100MM+ payroll yet.
And, in reference to another comment, 100 is just an arbitrary figure anyway. The bigger issue is how their spending compares to their peers.
I’d question giving him credit TBH. $77 MM spend isn’t worth credit if it isn’t a good signing, doesn’t lead to further moves to bolster their competitiveness etc. I was just merely saying it IS highly risky, for better or worse.
It is highly risky. I was trying to think of whether I'd be a big fan of a $77MM commitment to a FA pitcher with Keller's track record. I probably would, if for no other reason than it would be such a dramatic change to our paradigm.
In any case, I am happy that we'll have him for the next few years and excited to see what he'll do this year.
It’s safer with Keller than some rando FA I’d say, unless you really liked Imanaga or E-Rod. And hopefully it works out and they don’t use these contracts as an excuse to not sign Cruz etc.
In fairness, we paid out roughly 83% of that contract. According to Spotrac, we sent the Giants $2.5 MM to cover his $11 MM salary for the last year of the deal.
I didn't think I was being unfair to note that they did in fact trade Cutch (as they should have) before paying the entire deal, just as SufferinBuccotash predicted they would.
Not unfair, but I was referencing the fact that at the time, people were claiming he’d be traded after 2013 or 2014 before they paid ANY substantial sum.
Best to treat our stars like children. Let them grow and go. Since it’s virtually impossible to tell which players will regress rapidly after reaching early 30’s and who doesn’t, it’s best to trade them before all the tread is off the tires.
I do like extending the best ones for 2-4 years after FA eligible though.
Sure, I'm not opposed to that at all. I just think it would be misleading for Nutting or his PR people to cite, for example, that our payroll this year is above $100MM (i.e., the CBT value).
Technically, it’s well north of $100m. $81m 40-man + $17m benefits + $2m MLB bonus pool + $20m MLB draft and Int bonuses + $4m MiLB. That’s around $125m in payroll
As someone who made a living playing poker for years, I can tell you that there are some small-stakes online games that you can play and win completely blind. The hole cards are irrelevant. Of course, this is with poker tracker software, where you are only betting the other guys' tendencies. I spent the better part of a year playing almost 60% of the hands in some of these small-stakes online games... literally any 2 cards.
They seem to view signing their own players to longer term deals as less risky than signing a Jack Flaherty to 2 years and $32 MM. Now sure, Keller is more likely to provide better value over those 2 years, but that ignores the fact that the AAV isn’t the risk in signings, but rather the number of years.
A lot of people suggested in that in the replies to my Twitter post.
I have nothing to say as to whether I expect that or not; however, of note, say Keller is traded when you suggest (before 2017), the AAV for the acquiring team would be $19M, as opposed to $15.4M for the Pirates. This is due to a new rule in the most recent CBA in which AAVs are calculated after a trade.
It at least gives the acquiring team some pause, but not too much I would assume, unless you're talking the 2023 Angels.
Thanks. I didn't remember he was extended. After posting I tried thinking of the worst person recently on the pirates and he came first to mind of course
Thanks for this detailed breakdown and explanation!
A cynical view, though one based on history, is that the Pirates (Nutting) won't be the ones paying him $20MM in 2028 and possibly not even the $18MM in 2027. That's another reason to look at the LRD over the CBT, as the CBT is prematurely giving Nutting credit for something that he might never fully spend.
I disagree with this take, and here’s why: there’s a healthy amount of risk in signing any pitcher to an extension of this size. If he suffers a decline a performance, which isn’t that far out of the realm of possibility, then Nutting will be on the hook for the full haul, especially if that decline substantial. Even team friendly extensions carry substantial risk (see: Polanco, Gregory), which is why some teams like the A’s, never seem to do a lot of them.
I wasn't saying that they don't deserve credit for signing Keller because there is risk and they could be on the hook for all of it, just that I'm not crediting Nutting for running a $100MM+ payroll yet.
And, in reference to another comment, 100 is just an arbitrary figure anyway. The bigger issue is how their spending compares to their peers.
I’d question giving him credit TBH. $77 MM spend isn’t worth credit if it isn’t a good signing, doesn’t lead to further moves to bolster their competitiveness etc. I was just merely saying it IS highly risky, for better or worse.
It is highly risky. I was trying to think of whether I'd be a big fan of a $77MM commitment to a FA pitcher with Keller's track record. I probably would, if for no other reason than it would be such a dramatic change to our paradigm.
In any case, I am happy that we'll have him for the next few years and excited to see what he'll do this year.
It’s safer with Keller than some rando FA I’d say, unless you really liked Imanaga or E-Rod. And hopefully it works out and they don’t use these contracts as an excuse to not sign Cruz etc.
If that’s the case, it likely means Keller has outperformed his contract through the first few years.
lol....I made the same comment in the old Bob Smizik blog after Cutch signed his deal way back when, and got thoroughly trashed for saying it.
I totally thought about Smizik. Thanks for the memory.
Smiz Crew reunite!
I remember you from the Smizik days. Good times. I seem to recall agreeing with you quite a bit.
I'm trying to remember his style. Was he a smart ass?
Tried to be. His picture in the gazette honestly made him look like Bozo the Clown.
Thought so. Good call on picture. Just remember that picture and thinking "this dude knows sports?".
And you were right in the end.
In fairness, we paid out roughly 83% of that contract. According to Spotrac, we sent the Giants $2.5 MM to cover his $11 MM salary for the last year of the deal.
I didn't think I was being unfair to note that they did in fact trade Cutch (as they should have) before paying the entire deal, just as SufferinBuccotash predicted they would.
Not unfair, but I was referencing the fact that at the time, people were claiming he’d be traded after 2013 or 2014 before they paid ANY substantial sum.
I'm not sure how else we expect them to have any shot at extended success.
Cherrington has barely cobbled together a competitive core with the benefit of tanking for 5 years.
I was reluctantly in favor of trading Cutch for that reason. And of course it turned out very well.
They'd have to be peak-peak win cycle and the player an immutable force for it to make sense to keep them through the contract.
I could add the front loaded scenerio as a reason to hold,
but its the same reason they will be even more interest
At the end of the day
HOW BAD DO YOU WANT TO WIN?
Skenes go fund me?
EVERY SUNDAY THIS SUMMER
NUTTING DUNK TANK
1 throw $50
3 for $100
Includes Hot dog, Bun if not 86'D
Sometimes you only get one shot
Best to treat our stars like children. Let them grow and go. Since it’s virtually impossible to tell which players will regress rapidly after reaching early 30’s and who doesn’t, it’s best to trade them before all the tread is off the tires.
I do like extending the best ones for 2-4 years after FA eligible though.
Does it ultimately matter if they pay him the whole deal or not? If it comes time to flip him because they’re better off doing so, I’d be for it.
Sure, I'm not opposed to that at all. I just think it would be misleading for Nutting or his PR people to cite, for example, that our payroll this year is above $100MM (i.e., the CBT value).
Technically, it’s well north of $100m. $81m 40-man + $17m benefits + $2m MLB bonus pool + $20m MLB draft and Int bonuses + $4m MiLB. That’s around $125m in payroll
Hey you forgot staff salaries, rent, fertilizer, cleaning supplies, etc...
This $100 million dollar figure is completely irrelevant to me as a fan. What’s relevant is their unwillingness to sign a FA to a multi-year deal.
It’s like playing Texas Hold ‘em poker and only looking at one of your hole cards. Virtually impossible to win.
As someone who made a living playing poker for years, I can tell you that there are some small-stakes online games that you can play and win completely blind. The hole cards are irrelevant. Of course, this is with poker tracker software, where you are only betting the other guys' tendencies. I spent the better part of a year playing almost 60% of the hands in some of these small-stakes online games... literally any 2 cards.
They seem to view signing their own players to longer term deals as less risky than signing a Jack Flaherty to 2 years and $32 MM. Now sure, Keller is more likely to provide better value over those 2 years, but that ignores the fact that the AAV isn’t the risk in signings, but rather the number of years.
Right, has anyone in the Pirate ecosystem ever cited CBT?
It would be exceptionally difficult to find a piece of contractual bureaucracy less relevant to Pirate fans.
A lot of people suggested in that in the replies to my Twitter post.
I have nothing to say as to whether I expect that or not; however, of note, say Keller is traded when you suggest (before 2017), the AAV for the acquiring team would be $19M, as opposed to $15.4M for the Pirates. This is due to a new rule in the most recent CBA in which AAVs are calculated after a trade.
It at least gives the acquiring team some pause, but not too much I would assume, unless you're talking the 2023 Angels.
Who's not to be named?
therapist
That was a good SNL skit. Assuming that's where you got it. I know what happens when you assume so spare me.
I haven’t watched snl in years
Me either. Not since the days of Turd Ferguson.
Go watch Gillis make them squirm last weekend lol
Man, I heard it was awkward but damn…he made sure to offend people lol
Too of us ….
Felipe Vazquez. He was arrested on sexual assault charges.
I do believe it’s gone way past arrested. Arrested insinuates he’s still innocent until proven guilty.
The guy.
The guy who did that thing….
The very bad thing.... that guy.
Thanks. I didn't remember he was extended. After posting I tried thinking of the worst person recently on the pirates and he came first to mind of course