Bucs on Deck: Analyzing the midseason Top 30 update

Some thoughts and takeaways from the Pirates' organization and our Top 30 update.

Photo Credit: WTM

We have just completed our midseason update on the top 30 prospects in the Pittsburgh Pirates system, with plenty of movement from our initial list (and we have expanded from 25 to 30 prospects).

There were several new names added to the mix, with players who have jumped out in some of our first looks at them. That also means that a few have dropped, or have even fallen off the list completely.

With the list out, I wanted to go over some thoughts/observations/details on the update in general.

Wilber Dotel has taken a turn for the better

I try not to factor base counting stats into my evaluations too much. At some point, yes, success is needed to take that next step into the major league picture. Until then, it should just be about refining your game, even if that means taking lumps along the way.

Wilber Dotel has taken one of the more notable steps forward in the system, and this is reflected in his placement as a top 10 prospect. He has always had intriguing stuff, but hadn’t quite put things together.

There’s still some work to go, but he has taken the kind of positive step forward at the Double-A level. The biggest key has been the emergence of the splitter, giving him a legitimate third pitch and giving him a safer starter’s profile.

The strikeouts are up, the walks down. He has a fastball that can hit triple-digits.

What’s not to like?

Undisputed top prospect?

Bubba Chandler ended up as our number one prospect again, and despite the walk issues, he’s still among the best pitching prospects in all of baseball.

It wasn’t an actual discussion, but I did toss out whether there were any scenarios in which Konnor Griffin should be considered the top prospect in the system.

The answer wasn’t just no.

Griffin has been a special talent from the very first day. We’ve seen hitters flame out once they hit Double-A before. He feels different.

Bubba still gets the nod due to being the best pitching prospect still in the minors, and the fact that he’s in Triple-A.

But if he doesn’t graduate this year, and Griffin continues to develop at this rate, I think it’s going to have to be a legitimate conversation on who the top prospect in this system is going into 2026.

The system is seeing a shift at its core

For the majority of Ben Cherington’s tenure as the general manager, this has been seen as mainly a pitching-heavy system. Especially when the likes of Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, and Oneil Cruz graduated.

They were all top 100 prospects in baseball, and they are all now in the majors (Endy on the IL).

At least at the top, that’s still the case, as four of the five top prospects are all pitchers.

Once you get past that, it’s completely different, as our top 30 is exactly split in half between hitters and pitchers.

There is more than likely going to be an even bigger shift at the top, as Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows will graduate eventually, leaving two open spots on the list.

A glance and a look ahead, numbers 31 and 32 on our list are both hitters. Meaning, when Ashcraft and Burrows graduate, there will be more hitters on our list than pitchers.

Several of the hitters are from the international market, which explains why things have taken some time. There is still more to see, as many are in the lower levels, but this system is slowly shifting towards being hitter-favored as opposed to pitcher-favored.

The 2025 draft could have a chance to completely sway things one way or another.

Draft reigns supreme, International catching up

Like the pitching, the top of the list is heavily influenced by the draft. The first seven players on the list were all selected through the amateur draft.

Things got very close by the time you got to 30.

Draft - 16
Trade - 2
International - 12

That’s how the Pirates acquired each of the top 30 prospects. After the first seven, over half of the remaining prospects were acquired as international free agents.

It’s a long road that can take several years in the Dominican and another couple at the complex, but you are starting to see more and more take notable advances. The system leader in home runs? Esmerlyn Valdez.

Who is second? Javier Rivas.

Omar Alfonzo has probably the best combination of hit and power in the system behind Griffin.

Dotel. Alessandro Ercolani. David Matoma. Reinold Navarro. All international signings with great stuff on the list.

There is some built-in variance when it comes to the hitters in the lower levels, but the numbers continue to grow, thanks in part to the international side.

Boom or bust system

The Pirates have potential impact players in Griffin and Chandler. They currently have Ashcraft and Burrows on the major league team.

There are some high-floor players, such as Tsung-Che Cheng and Jack Brannigan, who likely project as major league depth players. Billy Cook and Nick Yorke likely fit more as bench players.

This system is really built in a way that it could look really good by the end of next season, or it could be a complete disaster.

Navarro and Matoma are power arms that are likely limited to being relievers. There are quite a few pitchers with reliever risks, but they could also be very solid starters.

Many of the hitters have severe boom-or-bust-type profiles. The system is volatile, and that became very evident when putting this list together.

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Bucs on Deck: Pirates Top 25 Prospects for 2025

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