Bucs on Deck: How many wins will the Pirates finish with in 2024?

The staff picks how many wins the Pirates finish with, plus team player awards.

Photo Credit: WTM

The 2024 major league regular season is upon us, and teams are set to start their 162-game marathon.

To get things started, WTM, Nola Jeffy, and I all gave our predictions on who would be the team MVP, best hitter, pitcher, and breakout player. Then, each gave their prediction on how many wins the Pirates would get and how they came up with that number.

WTM

MVP:  Hayes
Best Hitter:  Cruz
Best Pitcher:  Keller
Breakout Player:  Cruz

Win total:  75

It’s hard to project a step forward for the team overall when Ben Cherington made no effort during the offseason to address its gaping holes. The pitching is a potential disaster, especially if Cherington fills the rotation with a bunch of washed-up veterans like Marco Gonzales. 

Reinforcements will arrive at whatever time works best for Bob Nutting’s wallet, but a lot of damage can get done before then, and you can’t expect prospects, even ones as talented as Paul Skenes, not to go through any adjustment period. 

The bullpen is looking far shakier than it did at the start of spring training, with injuries and relievers performing well below expectations. It figures to be hampered by the need to carry middle relievers and spot starters to make up for the major problems with the rotation.

The hitting should improve due to Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Henry Davis, but as usual, Cherington’s veteran additions figure to drag the offense down. 

It’ll still be well below average. 

The story is similar with the defense. Michael A. Taylor will help a lot, and Jared Triolo will be an upgrade. So will Cruz, considering the mess that Cherington allowed to linger at shortstop for much of last season. 

Unfortunately, Yasmani Grandal and Rowdy Tellez are downgrades from last year, Tellez a very substantial one. And there’s always the general problem of a front office and manager who don’t have winning games on their priority list.

Murphy

MVP: Ke’Bryan Hayes

Best Pitcher: Mitch Keller

Best Hitter: Ke’Bryan Hayes

Breakout Player: Henry Davis

Win Prediction: 78

Under Ben Cherington, the Pirates have improved in terms of wins (and win percentage) each year. However, taking that next step will be difficult, and while there is a chance they look very much like a better team, this may not always translate into wins.

I think they still end up with more wins than the year prior, but maybe not as much of a jump on paper.

The pitching certainly has some holes, especially the bullpen now, with a few key injuries out the gate. They have reinforcements on the way, and they arguably did more with less than the stretch.

Marco Gonzales and Bailey Falter struggled in the spring, and both will start in the rotation.

The offense should be able to put up some runs, especially with Oneil Cruz returning to the lineup. Henry Davis looks to be ready to make an impact at the major league level.

Ke’Bryan Hayes put up a 3.3 WAR last year while being slightly above league average when it comes t hitting (101 wRC+), if he’s able to put up any where near the numbers he did at the end of the year, there’s dark horse MVP upside.

There are a lot of questions about this team, and there certainly are some bust potential, which is why I think they will look better at times, it just won’t look like as big a jump on paper.

They could very much be in the playoff push till the end, but maybe fade away a bit at the end.

Nola Jeffy

Team MVP: Hayes

Best Hitter: Davis

Best Pitcher: Keller

Breakout Player: Davis

Win total: 83

I'm going to try and be cautiously optimistic. I believe adding Michael A. Taylor lengthens the roster by improving the defense across the outfield, putting less pressure on Suwinski and Reynolds needing to be anything more than competent defensively. Letting them just hit taters.

I'm not exactly sure what to fully expect offensively from Triolo, but as a whole, I see him as Giant Iggle Hayes. He's gifted defensively, and having him in the infield along with Hayes should help offset of Cruz's throwing and Tellez's scooping lag. The BABIP won't be sustainable, but I think he could pair league average offense (at worst) to go with well above average defense.

Davis and Cruz should spend most of the year providing a surplus of excitement for fans. I hope they both take steps forward defensively and don't give back much of their value due to their gloves.

Pitching should be league average, rotation, and bullpen. Time will tell how many arms will take a step forward, but it shouldn't be an area that causes concern throughout the year.