Bucs on Deck: Pirates 2025 season predictions
Who will be the top performers, and how will the season go?
The 2025 regular season begins on Thursday, with the Pittsburgh Pirates opening up with a four game series on the road against the Miami Marlins.
As we are about to get things started, I thought we’d kick around to each of our writers to get their thoughts on the upcoming season.
We each picked a hitter, pitcher, and breakout player for 2025, as well as a win prediction for the upcoming season.
Next week we will run this back with a more minor league focused approach, but for now, here is our thoughts on the 2025 season for the Pirates.
John Dreker
Hitter of the Year: Bryan Reynolds
Pitcher of the Year: Paul Skenes
Breakout Player of the Year: Henry Davis
Win Prediction: 79-83
The Pirates have a chance to be better than my prediction if everything goes right, but that potential seems like it is already out the window with Jared Jones being hurt. They have the pitching in the upper level of the minors to be good for quite some time down the road, but I don't expect smooth sailing as soon as everyone comes up this year.
I feel better already about next year. I see them at least staying close to the final playoff spot, just not making it. The NL Central isn't great as a group, so I don't see any team pulling away. I don't have high hopes for the lineup. That's where everything has to go right to move the needle towards a legit playoff team. It's a good lineup if players reach their potential, but the chances of everyone having one of their better years at the same time are highly unlikely. Paul Skenes will make this year fun. Andrew McCutchen will pass some big names on the franchise's all-time list. Maybe Oneil Cruz finally puts everything together. Bubba Chandler will debut. There will be interesting storylines to keep you entertained throughout the summer. Maybe everything goes right and they grab a playoff spot. That's why you watch. It could be a good building year towards a better team in 2026.
WTM
Hitter of the Year: Oneil Cruz. This is hard because the Pirates just don’t have hitters with high ceilings. Their hitters pretty much all top out, ceiling-wise, at a little above average. I’ll go with Cruz because he’s the closest thing to an exception. I don’t buy into the hope that he’ll turn into a 40-HR guy, but it’s reasonable to hope for the version of Cruz we saw last year after the rust wore off a month or so into the season.
Pitcher of the Year: Paul Skenes. This is not hard. The biggest question with Skenes is whether he can overcome the front office’s disinterest in winning and make a run at a 20-win season.
Breakout Player of the Year: Endy Rodriguez. This also isn’t hard, if only because Rodriguez may be the only one of the team’s young players who gets a real shot. Of course, his hitting during spring training should lead to a lot of enthusiasm. He’s clearly stronger than he used to be, which for him could make a big difference. The team’s willingness to play him at first should also help, assuming Derek Shelton can resist doing something totally idiotic, like playing Adam Frazier at first a couple times a week. Rodriguez also is likely to be a lot better defensively behind the plate than Joey Bart.
Win Prediction: 78-84. It’s very difficult to look at this team and not see last year’s 76-win team. It’s all so . . . Cherington. The rotation isn’t going to carry them to new heights, especially not with Jared Jones out. It should insulate the team against long, disastrous stretches, but without the ability to score runs, it’s just as unlikely they’ll have any long winning stretches. At least 40% of the rotation will be made up of guys—Bailey Falter and Andrew Heaney—whose role is to give the team five decent innings every time out. Guys like that can be fine on a team with a good offense, but that’s definitely not the Pirates. There’ll be some exciting arms in the minors, but it’s hard to see them getting a shot absent injuries. Based on spring training, the bullpen should be better, but they don’t have Aroldis Chapman as Plan B, C, D, and E like last year.
The offense looks the same as it ever was. The lack of high-upside hitters makes it especially damaging to burden the roster with washed-up players like Tommy Pham and Frazier. The Pirates are banking on a bunch of guys just playing better, but it’s not realistic to expect a big turnaround from the position players simply getting more experience because they’re not a young group. In fact, they’re likely to be one of the older groups of position players in MLB. Any improvements are likely to be offset by other guys going in the wrong direction.
And one of the biggest limiting factors is the persistent absence of urgency. As we saw last year, Cherington is completely unwilling to try to address the team’s problems. Pham and Frazier can both hit .120 and not have to worry about their jobs until they get near some contractual incentive level. A 162-game season is a long one and requires constant adjustments to remain competitive. That’s just not Ben Cherington.
NolaJeffy
Hitter of the Year: Oneil Cruz
Pitcher of the Year: Paul Skenes
Breakout Player of the Year: Henry Davis
Win Prediction: 76-86
I don't want to be too much of a Debbie Downer, but I just don't see much of a path for the club as it stands to see a significant win increase from the previous season. I want to be optimistic, but it's hard to be, as the success of the club revolves around the usual collection of praying for 90th percentile outcomes or better from the majority of the roster.
The pitching, looks good. Really good, from an overall pitching staff to its immediate depth. Having to go to Carmen Mlodzinski as the 5th starter with Jared Jones' injury may not be optimal on paper, but it'll suffice as long as it needs to. Whether Moldzinski takes the role by storm and is an effective starter, or the Pirates move him back to the bullpen for another option, be it Jones return, or one of Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcraft, or whomever is ready for their debut.
The bullpen is the bullpen. As most should know by now, I think of relievers as fickle. Get arms with good stuff, and hope that year is their year. The Pirates have a large collection of pitchers with good stuff, especially in upper minors now, so they'll be able to tinker and make roster moves as much as their hearts desire. My only concern would be who the closer is, and at this juncture, I foresee it becoming (or hope) a closer by committee till someone takes the role for good.
Offensively and defensively standpoint, *long pause. Deep Breath. An even longer pause." Without going into a long diatribe, it's a less-than-ideal roster construction that leaves a lot to be desired. Especially considering the Pirates are going into their sixth season with Cherington at the helm. I'm hopeful Endy Rodriguez is fully healthy and we see some of his upside, I'm hopeful Henry Davis finds his offensive profile in the majors (once brought back up) that made him such an intriguing 1-1 selection, and just in general I hope they can get bodies on base for Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz to cause havoc against opposing pitchers.
I hope they can at least mimic an average defense, and they don't find themselves in a similar "Can it actually get worse than Edward Olivares in right field?", and then it did with Bryan De La Cruz. My confidence isn't high with regards to the defense, but I'll say that is partially why I enjoyed their previous MLB Draft selections with some actual focus on defensively gifted players. So, here's to Jack Brannigan and/or Tsung-Che Cheng having huge starts to their year and forcing their way onto the MLB roster while bringing defensive upside. Also, bring back Blake Sabol. Not for any specific reason other than I just love Blake Sabol.
Ryan Palencer
Hitter of the Year: Nick Gonzales
Pitcher of the Year: Paul Skenes
Breakout Player of the Year: Nick Yorke
Win Prediction: 76-86
It was another quiet offseason for the Pirates, as they try to rely mainly on home-grown talent. Based on this, it will be another sub-500 season. Paul Skenes tossing every five days will be fun, and was the obvious pick for Pitcher of the Year. The rotation looks strong, assuming Jared Jones misses only a limited amount of time, but the offense will struggle, and the back end of the bullpen will cost the team games.
As for the breakout player, Bubba Chandler will certainly be the popular choice and for clear reasons. Chandler will knock the door down on opportunity this year and looks extremely impressive. While I love Chandler, I went with Nick Yorke for breakout player. Though he had a tough spring, Yorke has the ability to hit the ball to all fields and make consistent, solid contact. That will play well at the next level.
Murphy
Hitter of the Year: Bryan Reynolds
Pitcher of the Year: Paul Skenes
Breakout Player of the Year: Endy Rodriguez
Win Prediction: 78-84
It was one of two options for me for Hitter of the Year, one is the safer route, the other has more upside in Oneil Cruz. It may not be the flashiest of statlines, but Bryan Reynolds has been one of the more consistent hitters in the majors over the last couple of years.
On a team with a lot of uncertainties, I’ll take the safe bet. Speaking of safe bets, feel like Paul Skenes is the only other one on the team right now. As long as he makes 30 starts, he’ll be in the Cy Young picture.
I wanted to take Nick Yorke as my breakout player, but I feel like these types of picks are more bred from opportunity than skill set, in most instances. In this case, the fact that Endy Rodriguez is going to break camp with the team and see time at two positions gives him more of a chance than Yorke.
Trying to narrow down on a win prediction was rough. It feels like another year where they are going to be counting on a lot of things to go right in order to improve. The strength, the rotation, could be dealing with a big blow depending on how long Jared Jones is out. A combination of Carmen Mlodzinski, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, and Mike Burrows should be able to piece together what production you’d hope from Jones.
The offense is going to be the biggest question mark, even before Spencer Horwitz went down with an injury.
Realistically, this team should improve solely because Skenes will give them 10 more starts. If too many players don’t take a step forward, and the pitching doesn’t hold up, this could be a very rough year.
They should hover around where they were last year, there just wasn’t enough done to push them to the next level.
Support the site by becoming a paid member, and get access to all of our premium content, including our Top 25 list with complete player write-ups and video breakdowns, which come out weekly.
It will also give access to my player feature articles from on-site trips.
We have monthly and yearly plans available, with the latter costing an average of $4.16/month
Ryan with the Nicky G pick! Love it!
Carson Fulmer pitching an A game at PC today. The AAA guys are gone now, but Fulmer just got reassigned.
Carlos Castillo very sharp in the other game (against the O’s of course). KG at SS in an IF with higher level guys — Severino, Toledo and Derek Berg.