By WAR, where do the Pirates need upgrades?

A look at what positions the Pirates should upgrade, based off of Wins Above Replacement

Photo Credit: WTM

The Pittsburgh Pirates made their first offseason move, signing Gilberto Celestino to a minor league contract.

It’s the first of a few expected as the Pirates look to build upon their 76-win season in 2023.

There are a few apparent positions of need, including first base, but based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR), are there any other areas they could improve?

Catcher: 2.5 WAR (12th), 57 wRC+ (28th)

This is one of the positions that theoretically could improve from internal options. Endy Rodriguez played in 57 games last year and put up a 0.7 WAR and a 65 wRC+.

As he gets more comfortable in the majors and throughout an entire season, those numbers could improve, making the position better.

Now, they could look to add another catcher to push/spell Rodriguez, but they do have Jason Delay, who has proven to be a serviceable backup in the majors. If the Pirates add everything they want and can circle back, this could be an area they can improve upon.

First Base: 2.8 WAR (10th), 101 wRC+ (21st)

This is one of the positions more on the obvious side, as they currently don’t have a natural first baseman on their 40-man. They brought in Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi last offseason, but both were gone by the trade deadline, finishing the year with Connor Joe and Alfonso Rivas.

Joe is the only leftover at this point in the offseason.

The WAR was boosted by Santana’s defense, who ended up a Gold Glove finalist. He’s a free agent again and expressed interest in returning to the Pirates after being traded.

That'd be encouraging on the defensive side of things, but you would like to see more offense from the position.

Second Base: -1.1 WAR (29th), 71 wRC+ (28th)

This position is probably the most disappointing, especially considering who played there this past season. Some of the organization’s top prospects spent time at second, including Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero, and statistically, it was perhaps their worst position group.

With the sheer number of options on the 40-man roster (add in Jared Triolo and new addition Tsung-Che Cheng), the idea of adding an external option isn’t likely, but a little bit of competition wouldn’t hurt.

Third Base: WAR (3rd), 104 wRC+ (10th)

When you lock up one of your core players, this is what you want to see regarding production. The defense from Ke'Bryan Hayes was always going to be great; it was just a matter of how much he would hit. If he can be a top-10 hitter to go along with being the best defensive third baseman, the Pirates have something here.

Shortstop: -1.1 (30th), 70 wRC+ (24th)

Unless Oneil Cruz flops or has to move positions from the injury, this improves by default. It was only nine games, but he had a 109 wRC+ at the time of his injury.

Again, the Pirates have a crowded middle infield picture right now, so bringing anyone in on a major league contract isn’t likely, but last year showed it may not be crazy to have an established backup plan. Peguero had a -1 OAA at shortstop last year and is probably your backup as of right now, but also one of the leading candidates to start at second.

Left Field: 2.3 WAR (15th), 102 wRC+ (15th)

Bryan Reynolds started 112 (played in 119 total) in left field last year and had a solid season, putting up a 2.3 WAR and 110 wRC+.

Doing basic math, the games he didn’t play in left field, the Pirates put up a zero WAR and 95 wRC+ (there is probably way more math involved, but this is a look at surface level), which is perhaps what you would expect from replacement level type players.

You could probably argue that the 95ish wRC+ out of your backups is a win as well.

Still, having the position your $100 million guy plays at finish league average isn’t ideal.

Center Field: 2.5 WAR (19th), 93 wRC+ (18th)

Depending on the defensive metric, it may tell a different tale of Jack Suwinski in center field. Baseball Savant graded him a plus (+2), while FanGraphs graded him the worst among the 16 qualified center fielders in baseball last year with a -10 DRS.

Suwinski and his 26 home runs will probably head into 2024 as the unquestioned center fielder without a legitimate option to challenge him.

Still, someone who can spell him against lefties and grades out better defensively could help boost Suwinski’s value. The Pirates signed Celestino, who is right-handed and plays strong defense.

Right Field: 0.5 WAR (25th), 90 wRC+ (26th)

The Pirates had a former first overall pick play right field this past season, making these numbers more underwhelming. Henry Davis was tossed there when he made it to the majors after Ben Cherington had him restart in Altoona to give him a chance to catch every day, so his experience in the right field was limited.

If the Pirates have Davis shift focus back behind the plate, this is another hole to fill unless they go with a Josh Palacios/Connor Joe platoon.

Outfield: 5.2 WAR (21st), 96 wRC+ (19th)

The outfield picture becomes clearer with an official decision on Davis. Any signing/trade will paint a clearer picture of the front office’s true mindset.

Starting Pitcher: 6.9 WAR (27th), 4.65 xFIP (23rd)

You always could use more pitching, but considering the Pirates could be without one of the two starters they had at the end of the season, they DESPERATELY need it. Going into the offseason, you could make the case that they needed to add one to two starters; now, with the Oviedo news, do you need three?

As we’ve seen this offseason, pitching doesn’t come cheap, so are the Pirates willing to spend to help solidify things behind Mitch Keller?

They should have Paul Skenes at some point during the season, as well as Jared Jones and potentially Mike Burrows (to an extent). Quinn Priester made his major league debut but wasn’t good, and Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras fell off a cliff in terms of what we saw from them previously.

JT Brubaker will also return after missing all of 2023 due to Tommy John at some point in 2024. He had a 1.9 WAR and 3.87 xFIP in 2022, which were better than what Oviedo put up this past season.

Can enough of them take the right steps forward if the Pirates cannot secure enough arms from outside the organization?

Bullpen: 4.8 WAR (11th), 4.29 xFIP (20th)

David Bednar was worth 2.3 wins last year and put up a 3.86 xFIP in what ended up as his second straight All-Star season. You can never have too many bullpen arms which the Pirates have some interesting guys that could fill in the late-inning roles leading up to Bednar but are far from a sure thing.

Carmen Mlodzinski, Kyle Nicolas, and Colin Holderman are options for set-up roles, but the Pirates could look at some more established relievers to provide insurance. Hunter Stratton also put up some interesting metrics on FanGraphs; although he was non-tendered, he could still be brought back on a minor-league deal to work his way back.