Carmen Mlodzinski: Fastball/Sweeper could see even more success this year

After a success switch to the bullpen, Carmen Mlodzinski could be primed for an even bigger jump.

Photo Credit: WTM

Carmen Mldodzinski was the second-draft pick of Ben Cherington and, in a way, has always been a bit of an overlooked prospect.

He was sandwiched between Nick Gonzales - the first pick of the Cherington era and was one of the top second base prospects for a bit - and Jared Jones, who is generally a census top 100 prospect.

After spending the first couple of years in pro ball as a starter, Mlodzinski made the move to become a reliever and not only performed well but looked the part of a potential long-piece solution in the back of the bullpen.

The strikeouts weren’t overly impressive in the majors, but there is plenty to suggest that he could generate more swing and miss the long he pitches with the Pirates.

Four-seam Fastball

He didn’t pitch long enough to qualify for most of the percentile ranks on Baseball Savant, but what did show up was quite impressive when you talk about the fastball.

It had a Run-Value of +7 and was in the 79th percentile regarding velocity (95.7 mph). In general, hitters barely made solid contact, with a barrel rate of just 4%, and put up a near 50% ground ball rate.

Hitters batted just .193 against the fastball and slugged just .316. The expected stats also played in his favor, and he should be able to maintain that (.218 xBA, .367 xSLG).

While he doesn’t get much inverted break to it (13.5”), and the horizontal movement puts it around the ‘dead zone’ area,, the release points and approach angle are all elite.

He’s already set up for success with how he attacks hitters with the pitch. If he can add a couple of ticks when it comes to the IVB (around 15/15.5” is considered average), the pitch might be even more dominant.

Mlodzinski’s release and approach angle generally translate to having a lot of success with the fastball, especially at the top of the strike zone, and as you can see with his pitch map, that’s where he focuses on throwing it.

Sweeper

Mlodzinski throws his fastball nearly 50% of the time, followed by his sweeper at 22%.

Like the fastball, it doesn’t get the kind of swing and miss you would expect (21% whiff rate), but there is a lot to like about the movement and where he places the pitch.

He used it primarily against righties, who went 5-29 against it, all of the hits being singles. Lefties did go 3-10 with a home run against it, but Mlodzinski mainly used the cutter and change-up against them.

Mlodzinski adjusted well to the shift to the bullpen and looks to play a big part in perhaps the deepest position unit on the team.

While a high strikeout total isn’t necessary to be a reliever, it does help, especially considering there will be times he comes into the game with runners on base.

He’s had a strong history of putting up decent strikeout numbers in his minor league career, so there is the possibility of seeing more as he gets more adjusted to the majors.