Control and pitch usage key for Kyle Nicolas in 2024
Kyle Nicolas upped the usage on a pitch in 2024 that led to more success
Initially acquired in the Jacob Stallings trade, Kyle Nicolas has long been known for his stuff, even going back to his days at Ball State. He was the 61st overall pick in 2020, the same draft the Pirates took Jared Jones and Nick Gonzales.
He made the full-time shift to the bullpen while in Triple-A in 2023 and made his major league debut later.
It wasn’t the best of debuts, as Nicolas allowed seven earned runs on seven hits and four walks in 5.1 innings pitched while striking out another seven. That was good for an 11.81 ERA.
While he still fought with his control overall in 2024, Nicolas had a much better year this time around. He posted a 3.95 ERA in 54.2 innings pitched, striking out 55 (22.6%) with 31 walks (12.8%). That was about a 3% drop when it came to his walk rate.
He had a notable meltdown in Paul Skenes’ debut, where he threw 13 straight balls, but had a strong showing from June-August (2.43 ERA in 37 IP) before fading in September.
It’s a small sample size comparing his pitch usage, but one notable difference could have aided his success in 2024—he used his curveball more.
Nicolas threw it just eight times in 2023 (7.2%) and then upped it to 22.5% usage. It ended up being his second most used pitch behind his fastball. All eight of those curveballs in 2023 were also outside the strike zone.
So, another key part was finding the zone on a much more consistent basis.
Even though the pitch graded out as a -1 Run Value, hitters batted just .219 against it, with a .251 xwOBA, and whiffed 44.7% of the time. That was the highest whiff rate of any of his three pitches.
Having a different look helped keep hitters off the fastball, which saw hitters go from hitting .429 against it down to .230 in 2024.
Nicolas had a lot of success attacking two ways (fastball/slider, fastball/curveball) in the minors, and we started seeing that with the Pirates in 2024.
With two different breaking pitches that finished with a whiff rate of around 40%, Nicolas has the stuff to be a back-of-the-bullpen reliever if he can continue to take steps with his control.
That could include time as the closer should the Pirates continue to look for other options after taking David Bednar out of the role late in 2024.
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I am Groot.
Bucs pick #6 in the draft who do we pound the table for?.