Different looks could help Paul Skenes' fastball play up better
How the two new pitches Paul Skenes is adding could help the rest of his arsenal
Spring Training is one of the best times of the year. It marks the start of baseball once again, and there isn’t much better than hearing the pops of the ball hitting the glove or the crack of the bat after a long off-season.
Some players begin work trying something new, like a pitch they’ve been working on in the off-season. Two pitchers are working on adding something new to their arsenal for the Pirates.
It turns out that the best way to keep hitters off guard is to add more pitches to the arsenal for Paul Skenes. Turns out he will be adding a two-seamer and cutter to the mix in 2025.
It’s hard to poke any holes in Skenes’ game without coming off petty, but looking at some of his lefty/righty splits, you could argue adding the two-seamer could add a secondary look off his four-seamer.
While hitters overall had a rough time making contact against the fastball, mainly due to his ability to dial it up well into triple-digits, much of that damage was against lefties.
Skenes held left-handed hitters to a .182 average while righties hit .283. Right-handed hitters also posted a wOBA of .304, and lefties came in at .270. The three highest wOBA hitters put up were against righties (four-seam, slider, curveball).
It will be interesting to see how the two-seamer looks from a shape standpoint. His four-seam already has a lot of horizontal run and a steeper approach, especially considering his arm slot.
I don’t think this will be too different than what the Pirates did with Carlson Reed. He had a more ‘deadzone’ fastball coming into pro ball, and they had him split it up last year, and it paid off.
Bringing up Skenes’ fastball always leads to an interesting conversation. His elite velocity, combined with his command in the zone, allows him to have the success that he does.
Realistically, that could be the end of the conversation. It graded out well based on the physical results, and that generally is all that matters.
Some underlying traits (.420 xwOBA, an almost 100-point higher wOBA against lefties compared to the average (.270 to .182) could hint at some regression. Still, realistically, if he is painting 100 mph on the corners, few will hit the pitch.
Adding a distinctively different-looking fastball, however, could help limit the damage done when they do make contact.
That’s where the cutter comes in, as well. If he can get some different movement from the two-seamer, and then the cutter moves in on lefties, that’s two pitches that will be similar to the four-seamer that ends up not being it.
The cutter could help the slider, which was his ‘worst’ pitch on statcast. Righties hit .313 against it with a .422 wOBA.
Skenes isn’t the only one adding a two-seamer to the mix; it appears Braxton Ashcraft will as well.
This is a more interesting move, as the ideal pitch for him to put more emphasis on would have been the change-up. He hasn’t thrown much and struggled with it a bit when he did in Triple-A.
Throwing from a higher release point, Ashcraft’s approach angle was always going to be a little steeper. The induced vertical break he gets on his fastball is below average for his release height, and he doesn’t get much extension on it.
Analytically, it’s not a great fastball, although the velocity isn’t bad. He benefits from two above-average (to plus) breaking pitches and plus control, especially in the zone.
The fastball tunnels well off the breaking pitches, even up in the zone. So, I like him adding the two-seamer, especially if he’s going to use it down in the zone more.
Ideally, that’d be the change-up, but if that’s not going to work, splitting the fastball into two can still have nearly the same effect.
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Fangraphs top 100 is out, only Chandler and Ashcraft made the list. I noticed last year and now this year how much they value power over hit tool (the opposite of BC). Many of the players ranked have only the power tool as the only plus tool, not sure I agree with that, but what do I know.
Braxton Ashcraft has the pitches to be a Top 3 SP in a lot of Rotations. As such, he could be the key to finding a young, LH power hitting Outfielder who can also be a plus on defense. Lawrence Butler of the Athletics is an excellent possibility. That same team has JJ Bleday already in the OF and RH hitting Colby Thomas (.559 Slg at AAA, 568 Slg at AA) coming up quickly. They also have Henry Bolte in AA. If they had a pitcher like Ashcraft, they could challenge in the AL West. They have hitting to spare and we have pitching to spare - make a deal Ben