Examining Paul Skenes’ Service Time

Service time implications coming from the Pirates promoting Paul Skenes

Photo Credit: Ryan Palencer

The time is finally upon us—highly touted pitching prospect Paul Skenes is slated to make his major league debut on Saturday.

You’ll be able to find any number of breakdowns at any number of outlets—his upbringing, development, future projection, etc. et al—but I don’t care all that much about any of that. I care about service time and what that means regarding MLB logistics.

So, let’s take a look, shall we?

If Skenes is selected on Saturday—and assuming he doesn’t get optioned back to the minors—he would finish with 142 days of service (.142). This obviously is short of the full season (172 days) that it would have taken for Skenes to possibly qualify for a PPI pick. That means despite his success now or in the future, no picks can be garnered based on Skenes’ performance.

However, when crafting the newest CBA, both a carrot and stick were implemented in an effort to combat service time manipulation, and the Pirates could end up getting hit with the switch.

While players like Shōta Imanaga and Jared Jones will make it difficult, if Skenes comes up and performs as everyone hopes, there is at least an outside possibility he places top-two in Rookie of the Year voting.

If that happens, Skenes’ service time after 2024 would automatically go from .142 to 1.000. In theory, this would take a year of contractual control away from the Pirates, as Skenes’ free agency date would move from after 2030 to after 2029. This isn’t totally out of the cards, as it happened with Tanner Bibee and the Cleveland Guardians last season.

Bibee came up late—April 26^th—but that’s still a two-week head start on where Skenes will be. So, while it’s not exactly likely, it’s at least a component of the timing that needs to be considered.

What wouldn’t move back—without a future demotion that is—is Skenes’ arbitration timeline. Coming up this early puts his service time well above any recent Super 2 cutoff, with 2.134 going into 2019 the highest it’s been since at least 2015. For what it’s worth, I’m currently projecting this offseason’s cutoff at 2.133—which is obviously subject to change—but we have no idea what it’s going to look like after 2026. This is when Skene’s would first qualify for arbitration, then run through 2030.

Skeptics might say that a midseason reset around the All-Star break—a la Roansy Contreras in 2022—would keep him away from both the Super 2 and Rookie of the Year conversations, but that may just be the history of a scorned Pirates’ fan talking.

Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Gregory Polanco, Gerrit Cole: The list of top prospects to come up in June, safely after the perceived Super 2 “deadline” is long, but Skenes is now the second example of breaking precedent just this season alone.

Obviously, Jones starting on the Opening Day roster is the other, and while two may not make a trend, Skenes’ timeline, in particular, may simply be an example of what the Pirates’ plan was all alone—boxes checked, no manipulation required.

If all goes according to plan, Skenes has the potential to “hurt” the Pirates (off the field at least) in several different ways: qualifying for Super 2 in the future, losing rookie eligibility (which, if the team brought him up late enough this year, could have kept him in the running for a PPI pick next year, and putting himself in the Rookie of the Year race.

The Pirates, at least for now, are scoffing in the face of these speed bumps, history be damned.

So, maybe…just maybe…Skenes’ highly anticipated debut shouldn’t be the only thing for Pirate fans to be excited about moving forward.

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