Examining Who Qualifies for the Prospect Promotion Incentive After 2023

As part of the most recent labor agreement between the league and the players association, a compromise was made to try and address the players’ concerns about service time manipulation—the Prospect Promotion Incentive, or PPI.

Potentially rewarding teams that roster top prospects with draft picks was seen as a possible way to incentivize teams to roster players whom they may not have before. The hope is that an extra draft pick outweighs the additional years of control the players were worried about teams trying to gain, holding back the paths to free agency for specific players.

In order to qualify for the incentive in any given season, players must fit several criteria:

• Appear on two of the three—ESPN, MLB Pipeline, and Baseball America—agreed upon preseason Top-100 prospect lists

• Qualify for rookie eligibility

• Have less than 60 days of service time

• Accrue a full year of service during the season

If the player meets all those thresholds, they can qualify their teams to earn a PPI pick, which comes immediately after the first round in the draft. To earn a pick, a player must either win Rookie of the Year or finish top-three in MVP or Cy Young voting in any season before hitting arbitration. A player can only earn their respective team one draft pick over their pre-arbitration years.

With that quick crash course out of the way, the goal is to break down who qualified for PPI in 2023 and what the list looks like moving into 2024 and beyond.

At the start of 2022—the first year of the incentive—it was reported that record numbers of top prospects were starting on rosters, and 2023 was no different. Twelve qualifying prospects opened the 2022 season on a roster, while fourteen did in 2023:

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox

Cade Cavalli, Washinton Nationals

Oscar Colás, Chicago White Sox

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

Josh Jung, Texas Rangers

Logan O’Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels

Ryan Pepiot, Los Angeles Dodgers

Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies

Miguel Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers

Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees

Ken Waldichuk, Oakland Athletics

Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals

Of course, this list implies that heading into 2023, these players were Top-100 prospects that were rookie eligible with less than 60 days of service; however, the hardest part of the equation—the full year of service—was the final piece of the puzzle that needed to be sorted out.

Despite not opening the season on the active roster, a player can still accrue a full year of service, just so long as they are recalled or selected in enough time to accrue 172 days of service. A handful of players (Grayson Rodriguez, Francisco Álvarez, Taj Bradley, Oswald Peraza, and Brett Baty) fit the bill here, but four ended up being optioned back down at some point during the season. Álvarez of the New York Mets was recalled on April 7^th and never returned to the minors, accruing 178 days of service and qualifying for PPI moving forward.

Several other players on the opening day list were sent down at certain points, with Colás, Pepiot, Vargas, and Walker all serving long enough minor league stints to drop them under a full year of service.

That left eleven players eligible for picks after 2023:

Francisco Álvarez, New York Mets

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox

Cade Cavalli, Washinton Nationals

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

Josh Jung, Texas Rangers

Logan O’Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels

Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies

Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees

Ken Waldichuk, Oakland Athletics

During the 2023 awards season, both Carroll and Henderson ended up winning Rookie of the Year, qualifying their teams for picks after the first round. Of note, Carroll’s long-term extension he signed heading into 2023 did not disqualify him or his team from the incentive.

The order of PPI picks follows the new format for postseason teams—revenue-sharing recipients come before payors, with reverse record determining the order for teams in the same buckets. Currently, the Diamondbacks are slated to pick 31st and the Orioles 32nd with both teams being recipients and Arizona having the worst record in 2023.

That means, moving forward, Carroll or Henderson could place in MVP voting, and their teams would not receive any further picks. What about other players who remain eligible to earn their team’s picks moving forward? Currently, there are 17 players that qualify:

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays, 2024

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds, 2024

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds, 2024

Geraldo Perdomo, Diamondbacks, 2024

Jeremy Peña, Houston Astros, 2024

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins, 2024

Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies, 2024

Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals, 2024

Francisco Álvarez, New York Mets, 2025

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros, 2025

Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox, 2025

Cade Cavalli, Washinton Nationals, 2025

Josh Jung, Texas Rangers, 2025

Logan O’Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels, 2025

Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies, 2025

Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees, 2025

Ken Waldichuk, Oakland Athletics, 2025

Of course, the listed years assume full years of service for each player moving forward. Also, a player must stay with the teams they originally earned their eligibility with—MacKenzie Gore, originally of the San Diego Padres, was set to earn eligibility in 2022 before being traded to the Washington Nationals as part of the Juan Soto trade. Despite accruing a full year of service, Gore can’t earn either the Padres or Nationals a pick.

Also, players like Baz and Cavalli are interesting to point out, as both players earned full years of service simply by spending all—or at least a good portion—of their respective seasons on the 60-day IL. Since the full rules specifying who does or doesn’t qualify still aren’t available, it’s technically possible that Cavalli doesn’t qualify, as Baz was at least active for a portion of the season, while Cavalli was not.

It seems odd that the specifics are shrouded in mystery after two years, but I’m comfortable enough with what’s public to have this as my working list moving forward.