Fun With Statcast: Pirates, sprint speed, and stealing more bases

Should the Pirates be running more?

Jared Triolo Photo Credit: WTM

The fun part of Statcast is finding out data that you didn’t expect, or that conflicts with other data you’ve seen. Like discovering that Jack Suwinski, who bizarrely got a “20” grade from FanGraphs for both speed and defense, was actually above-average in both areas. Or another one: Contrary to the prevailing view among Pirate fans, Connor Joe is a little above-average defensively both in the outfield and at first. (That’s true whether you use Statcast’s OAA figure or FanGraphs’ UZR.)

Here’s a more complicated one: Two of the weakest arms on the Pirates belong to Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jared Triolo, who rank in the 26th and 28th percentiles, respectively, for arm strength. But, who cares? Hayes every year is close to being the best defensive player in all of MLB, at any position, thanks to range that, in 2023, ranked in the 99th percentile. Despite moving around a lot, Triolo also ranked very well in all the defensive measures thanks in part to 87th percentile range.

Of course, sometimes the data shows just what you’d expect. Rowdy Tellez, for instance, checks in with 1st-percentile speed and 2nd-percentile arm strength. He’s the Anti-Tool Guy.

Tellez notwithstanding, the Pirates figure to have very good team speed. In 2023, they tied with the Reds and Phillies with an average sprint speed of 28.0 ft/sec, at the very top of MLB. It’s not totally surprising, as the Pirates have several players we knew had elite speed. Oneil Cruz wasn’t around to put up much data in 2023, but he had 98th percentile sprint speed in 2022 (We’ll see whether the broken ankle affects that). Ji Hwan Bae ranked in the 97th percentile and Liover Peguero 95th.

There were a number of other players with above-average sprint speed, some well above, and a couple may be surprising. Andrew McCutchen was still in the 77th percentile at age 36. Suwinski’s ranking was 81st, Joshua Palacios 72nd, and Bryan Reynolds 61st. Hayes was only in the 43rd percentile, but in past seasons he was in the 60s, so it’s likely the back problems had an impact.

A couple of surprises are Nick Gonzales, with near-elite speed at 86th, and Henry Davis at 72nd. Jared Triolo, another big guy, ranked 77th. Offseason acquisition Edward Olivares was in the 83rd percentile in 2023 (he also checks in with 90th percentile arm strength. Unfortunately, the overall defensive numbers for him in the outfield are dismal). The only below-average marks for players who put up any data in 2023, apart from Tellez and (hopefully temporarily) Hayes, were Joe at 43, Jason Delay at 29, and Canaan Smith-Njigba at a glacial 15.

What this ought to translate into is some offensive improvement through aggressive baserunning. Despite the team speed, the Pirates ranked only 14th in MLB in FanGraphs’ baserunning runs above average measure, at 1.2. Their track record in stealing bases probably had a significant negative impact here. Despite the early-season outburst of base stealing, the team finished exactly average in steals at 117. In caught stealing, though, it was tied for third-most. The Pirates’ success rate of 74.1% was far below the MLB average of 80.1%.

The big offenders in the caught stealing department were Hayes, who was only 10-for-16; Joe and Davis, who were each 3-for-8; and Rodolfo Castro, who was 1-for-5. Hayes historically has been an efficient base stealer, so this could be another impact from the back trouble. Castro is gone, and Joe and Davis maybe just shouldn’t steal much. (Davis may have surprisingly good sprint speed, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into getting good jumps). Triolo, Peguero, and Palacios, on the other hand, combined to go 17-for-20, and they could be playing more in 2024.

So, with good coaching, there’s at least the potential of the Pirates improving their offense by running more aggressively. Of course, it’s a bit of a stretch to expect good baserunning coaching from a team that has the Pirates’ track record with hitting and pitching.