Handling innings for Zander Mueth down the stretch

A look at Mueth's usage, and how many innings he could have left this year.

Jul 20, 2024

To say that Zander Mueth has been on a roll lately would be underselling it completely. The 67th overall pick in the 2023 draft has been on an absolute tear in the Complex League.

With his latest outing on Friday, Mueth has completed five innings in his previous six starts. In four of those games, he hasn’t allowed a run and in the other two, it has been just a single earned run given up each.

That’s good for a 0.60 ERA over his last 30 innings pitched.

The key to his success has been finding the strike zone more often, as his walks have decreased each month during the FCL season.

He walked 10 in 14.1 innings during May, followed by eight in 18.1 in June. In 15 innings this month, Mueth has walked just four batters while striking out 15.

It does look like he’s had to dial the fastball back a bit to find the strike zone more, but with so much horizontal movement coming from his arm slot, hitters are still helpless in making solid contact.

Mueth, who just turned 19 in late June, is currently the ERA leader in the FCL and is in a tie for most wins. He has the third most innings pitched and is in a tie for fifth for strikeouts.

A fantastic season, which could be coming to a close soon.

The FCL team has just four games left in their regular season. As he’s started on Thursdays recently, that would leave one more start for Mueth at the complex. He wouldn’t be available to pitch in either game, even if they make the playoffs.

So, the question becomes, what to do with Mueth once the FCL season is over?

Mueth currently sits at 47.2 innings pitched on the season, a strong number for someone his age.

Share Bucs On Deck

With the Complex season ending a month earlier than usual, the Pirates could get Mueth up to Bradenton for a couple of starts to sneak in some more innings before shutting him down.

The question is, how much of a workload are the Pirates planning to put on him?

While there is no set number, at least that’s available publicly, we can look around the league and at what other teams have done recently with their prep players.

I looked at all the prep pitchers in the top 100 in the drafts from 2021-2023 to see what other teams were doing.

2021 Draft

Jackson Jobe was the highest-selected prep pitcher in that draft, going third overall. He pitched 77.1 innings in 2022, the first full season for that draft class.

However, he wasn’t the pitcher who logged the most innings, as that belonged to Michael Morales, who was the 83rd overall pick. He pitched 120.1 innings in his first full season as a prep pitcher, easily the highest mark from this sample size.

Fellow Pirates’ pitching prospect Bubba Chandler logged the fewest innings—41.1. He threw at the complex and Bradenton to close out the season.

These don’t consider innings thrown during extended spring training or instructionals after the season, which should be taken into account. But it still gives us a general idea.

2022 Draft

Robby Snelling pitched the most out of the 2022 class, throwing 103.2 innings in 2023. He was the lone pitcher to top 100 innings—with Karson Milbrandt being the next closest at 95.1.

Quite a few players from this class were dealing with injuries, with one (Cole Phillips) still not throwing a professional inning.

Dylan Lesko was the first prep pitcher taken, going 15th overall, but was returning from Tommy John. He ended up throwing 33 innings that year.

2023 Draft

A total of 11 prep pitchers were taken in the first 100 picks of last year’s draft. The numbers here are different because we are in the middle of their first full season, but we are getting a good idea of their usage.

Noble Meyer and Thomas White are both in High-A already, with the latter leading the entire group regarding innings pitched (61).

Alex Clemmey is close (something with lefties), but Mueth is sixth among the 11 prep pitchers taken in the first 100 picks when it comes to innings pitched.

So, the 120.1 innings that Morales threw is the outlier, where does that leave Mueth? Another thing that would have to be considered is how the Pirates have utilized their prep pitchers.

Pirates History

Under Ben Cherington, the Pirates have taken six prep pitchers between 2020-2023. Here’s how many innings they threw in the season following their draft year.

Jared Jones - Bradenton - 66 IP

Anthony Solometo - Bradenton - 47.2 IP

Bubba Chandler - FCL/Bradenton - 41.1 IP

Michael Kennedy - FCL/Bradenton - 46.2 IP

Zander Mueth - FCL - 47.2 IP

*Owen Kellington - Bradenton - 80 IP

I added a * for Kellington because he was limited in 2022 due to an injury, and his first actual season was 2023 with Bradenton.

Not factoring in Kellington’s innings, the first four averaged around 50 innings in their first year, with obviously Jones pushing it up a bit.

So it’s reasonable to believe his next start this coming Thursday could be his last of the year.

Kennedy came out of the bullpen for two games with Bradenton at the end of the year, but again, the FCL season ended later.

So, the Pirates have been on the safe side regarding their prep pitching prospects. Mueth may get some time in Bradenton, but it may not be for too long.

What makes things interesting is the current injury issues the rotation is having. Antwone Kelly, Khristian Curtis, and Michael Kennedy are all on the injured list.

Mike Burrows and Aaron Shortridge spent an extended amount of time rehabbing in Bradenton, which helped cover some of the innings.

They were sent back to Indianapolis, leaving two spots open in the rotation.

Mueth has shown the ability to pitch deeper into games, and maybe more importantly, he has done it consistently.

While they want to go on the safer side, Mueth’s performance has undoubtedly earned a look in Bradenton, and the Marauders need a starting pitcher. They also have the upwards ceiling of Kellington’s 80 innings, although they weren’t technically directly after his draft year.

It’s a match that could push the limit on what the Pirates were hoping for and then some.

Either way, it’s been a fantastic season for Mueth so far, especially considering you can see the improvement as the year has progressed.

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