Initial Estimate for the 2025 Opening Day Payroll

A look at how the payroll is shaping up for next year before free agency

The offseason is getting ready to kick into high gear, which means Pittsburgh Pirate fans everywhere will be wondering just how much payroll is and how much space there is for offseason moves. The only problem is there’s nary a reliable resource when it comes to that.

That’s where this comes in.

This basically works on the assumption that the team will do nothing over the offseason—no trades, no extensions, no free agent signings—just go with the status quo and only use in-house options.

Of course, this isn’t realistic; however, I feel it’s an appropriate way to start the offseason projection. There’s no way of knowing what moves the team will make, so creating a baseline with all internal players shows basically where the team would be at the absolute minimum and adjusting from there every time a move is made from here on out.

Guaranteed Salaries: $41,500,000

The Pirates guaranteed commitments going into the offseason have been creeping up over the last few seasons—there were none in November 2021—with the team extending one player every year since 2022.

At that time, Ke’Bryan Hayes was the team’s highest-paid player. He was eventually surpassed by Bryan Reynolds, who in turn has lost that title to Mitch Keller—whose salary is going up almost $10 million this season—at $15 million. In fact, best I can tell, that will be the highest single-season salary the team has paid in the club’s history, with Andrew McCutchen making $14 million in 2017.

Joining the recent extensions is Isiah Kiner-Falefa at $7.5 million, which makes Hayes the player with the lowest commitment in the group. Remember, the cash paid by the Blue Jays in the trade was all relayed in 2024, meaning the Pirates are on the hook for the entire remaining balance of IKF’s deal.

Arbitration Salaries: $24,100,000

The Pirates have a nine-player arbitration class, but of course, there will be some non-tenders that thin the herd a bit.

Generally, I’m not one to quibble with the great work of Matt Swartz at MLB Trade Rumors, which is where these figures come from, but I must say that I don’t understand Johan Oviedo’s projection of $1.5 million. Out all season, Oviedo is entering his first year of arbitration. Players’ salaries typically stay stagnant after missing an entire season, but Oviedo’s salary is projected to essentially double. A Pirates centered precedent for this is Chad Kuhl in 2020, who made $840,000 as a first-time arbitration eligible player—$276,500 over the minimum—after missing an entire season.

When payroll estimates start to come out nationally, these are what will be reported, as if the team is going to start the season with thirteen players and a $65,600,000 payroll.

Don’t believe them, you’re smarter than that.

Pre-arbitration Salaries: $12,540,000

The rest of the roster was filled out with minimum salaries to get to 26 spots.

The Pirates seemed to switch up their minimum salary formula a tad in 2024, paying three different salaries to players under one year of service as opposed to one, as they have in the past. I implemented a similar structure into my estimate, with salaries ranging from $762,500—$2,500 over the minimum—to $785,000 for players with over two years of service.

I applied this process to 14 of the 16 minimum players on the roster—with Daulton Jefferies and Hunter Stratton receiving modest raises to their respective 2024 salaries of $800,000, which they made as part of their minor league free agent deals.

Minor League Salary: $1,769,956

For the most part, players assigned to the minors make a lower rate than they would otherwise while in the majors.

The minimums for 2025 are $123,900 for players on second contracts or with prior major league service and $62,000 for players on their first contracts. Some players make more depending on what they made the prior season.

This accounts for 10 players, with Endy Rodríguez ($372,500), Ji Hwan Bae ($269,879), and Jason Delay ($260,277) the highest splits on the list, inflating the total slightly.

With no additional players projected to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, the team doesn’t figure to have any players at the $62,000 rate.

Signing Bonuses: $661,500

As in the 2024 year-end recap, this is the prorated signing bonuses for Keller and Reynolds, as it will be for the foreseeable future.

2025 Payroll Projection: $80,571,456

I have all my spreadsheets updated and you can follow along here as I update them throughout the offseason.

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