Johan Oviedo and the fifth starter candidates
Making a case for and against each of the potential fifth starting pitcher candidates.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have the potential to have one of the best rotations in the National League going into 2025, but after the trade of Luis Ortiz, they do have a spot open now.
There could be several different names, some more obvious than others. I decided to review some of them today and explain why they could make the rotation and why they wouldn’t.
Johan Oviedo
Why he could: Depending on his health status, Oviedo should have the inside track to be the fifth starter. Acquired by the Pirates in the Jose Quintana trade, the Cardinals had shifted Oviedo to the bullpen but moved back into the rotation after the move.
In his healthy full season of 2023, Oviedo posted a 4.31 ERA (1.8 fWAR_ over 177.2 innings pitched for the Pirates. He fits in perfectly as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater.
Why he wouldn’t: The biggest, and probably only, way that Oviedo isn’t the fifth starter is if he doesn’t appear fully ready to take on that kind of workload during Spring Training. He does have options remaining, so there’s no pressure in trying to force him back before he’s ready.
It can take some time for the stuff to fully come back after this kind of surgery, so Spring is going to be the best (not the most optimal, though) way to find that out.
Braxton Ashcraft
Why he could: After another year of being removed from Tommy John surgery, Ashcraft’s stuff looked like it took another step forward in 2024. He has some of the best control in the system, and sometimes, all you can ask for from a rookie pitcher at the back of your rotation is to throw strikes.
His ability to throw strikes with two breaking pitches that generally grade above average could give him a leg up on some in the competition.
Why he wouldn’t: Ashcraft has pitched well the last two years but hasn’t logged many innings. In 2023, it was to ease back in from Tommy John, but last year, he had multiple stints on the injured list that limited him to two appearances after July.
While he wouldn’t necessarily be locked into being the fifth starter all year, there may be concerns about his ability to hold up for an entire season—since he has yet to do that in pro ball (73 IP is his career high).
Mike Burrows
Why he could: There was a point where Burrows was arguably the best pitching prospect in the system. He’s gradually improved his stock as a starting pitcher, adding a change-up and slider to his arsenal.
He wasn’t quite in his pre-surgery form, but that could come another offseason after Tommy John. If it does, he may have the most well-rounded arsenal. He also picked up a win in his major league debut to end the season last year.
Why he wouldn’t: He probably has the same injury concerns as Ashcraft, and like Oviedo, you want to see how much further he is from the surgery. If we had to rank them according to how likely they are to win the fifth spot (realistically), he’d probably be second to Oviedo.
Bubba Chandler
Why he could: Chandler has some of the most explosive stuff in the minors and has emerged as one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. He’s ahead of where Jared Jones was at the end of the 2023 season, and we saw the leap he made last year.
He has the talent to be a frontline starter, so he may force the Pirates’ hands like Jones did a year ago.
Why he wouldn’t: This wouldn’t have been a question a couple of years ago. He wouldn’t win a rotation spot, and Chandler would have become major league-ready right around the Super Two deadline.
Now that things are different, there is still a chance that Chandler could clearly need more seasoning; nothing would be wrong with that. He also isn’t on the 40-man roster, so he’d be at the mercy of those he’s competing with who are already on it. Which, this year has more competition than it did a year ago.
Thomas Harrington
Why he could: A lot of the thought process that applies to Ashcraft can go again with Harrington. He’s a strike thrower, one of the best in the minors, and unlike Ashcraft, he has more of a track record for eating innings. Harrington has topped 100 innings in his two full seasons in the minors.
Maybe they wouldn’t all be pretty, but Harrington seems like the kind of pitcher that you feel pretty comfortable can get you through five innings consistently. You’ll take that from your fifth starter.
Why he wouldn’t: Heading into camp, he’s probably at the bottom of the pecking order among these names.
This means he’d have to beat out the entire group to get the fifth starter spot, including a roster move to make space for him.
It's not impossible, but it doesn’t seem likely in a month’s worth of exhibition games.
Wild Card: Caleb Ferguson
Why he could: He does have some history as a starter, and with the right tweak of his pitches, the stuff could work in the rotation. He was a starter throughout his minor league career and could have remained there if he had been with a team other than the Dodgers.
They needed a lefty reliever, and it stuck.
Why it wouldn’t: Honestly, I can see a scenario where they aren’t gearing him up to be a starter but more of a piggyback with Oviedo to help ease him in. Ferguson can step in and fill those innings in a game where Oviedo doesn’t go deep enough.
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I am in favor of acquiring a veteran starter with some gas left in the tank to lead this young pitching staff. I was in favor of bringing back Charlie Morton, due to his connection to Strom and history in Pittsburgh, but I believe this team would benefit from someone who is more than just a has-been place holder. All respect to Keller, but having a veteran who has been to the mountain top before that players like Jones, Skenes, Chandler, etc. can turn to for guidance is invaluable. There are teams out there looking to unload salary with veteran pitchers who underperformed last season (Montgomery in Arizona immediately comes to mind) and this team isn’t going to spend money elsewhere this season…. So why not?
Oviedo, Burrows, Chandler: WOULD.