Mailbag: Key FCL Players, Pirates 2024 draft picks
Another mailbag talks the FCL and who the Pirates might take in the 2024 draft.
Korey Karbowsky (@KoreyKarbowsky): What’s going on with Yordany De Los Santos, Estuar Suero, and Tony Blanco Jr.? Figured they’d be playing and haven’t seen much of anything about them?
They are all still teenagers, and after the struggles that De Los Santos had last year in Bradenton, they probably aren’t in a rush to push them.
What also may have changed things, at least when it comes to Yordany or Estuar, is that the Florida Complex League season was moved up this year. So, the Pirates could ease them into things and still have a whole extra month left in Bradenton now.
Blanco would always spend the entire year in the FCL, at least I would imagine. He’s got quite the swing-and-miss issue to deal with.
Bob Strazza (@pittsburghbob69): MLB mock draft. Pirates picks at 9, 37, and 47 (day one). Maybe a couple of day two guys you like and some day three sleepers.
This draft has been overwhelming and frustrating to get a handle on, as it feels like it can go so many directions.
It’s clear that the first tier of players stands at about eight, which is significant because the Pirates pick ninth. So, if things all fall into place, the Pirates will just miss out on one of the top players in the draft. Baseball America notes that there is quite a drop-off in the draft after that tier, especially on the college side.
But we know that there is going to be a player who slides, it happens every year. Someone will go off board, which will force someone else to drop.
Thinking about it, I really think the ninth overall pick comes down to three scenarios.
Someone slips, take him—Thinking about it, and the Future Projection podcast reiterated it, JJ Wetherholt and Nick Kurtz makes the most sense right now to slip out of the top eight, which was a crazy thought not too long ago.
They both come with their own set of questions, but they represent what the Pirates generally target early in drafts. Kurtz has a growing list of injury concerns, and wasn’t playing overly well earlier in the season but has been on a tear for the last month.
Wetherholt is actually a local kid who has perhaps the best hit tool in the draft, when healthy, which he has had issues staying this year.
Take a prep player—One of Konnor Griffin or Bryce Rainer should still be available. With the top tier of players gone, the Pirates could swing for the fences here. They’ve gone with the ‘safe’ pick with the ‘advanced’ hit tool all too often and they haven’t exactly worked out so far.
Maybe it’s time to try to do something different. I’ve been really high on Rainer throughout the process (even as a pitcher). Think he could take over as the top hitting prospect in the system rather quickly.
Hunt the next tier, perhaps cut a deal—Someone like James Tibbs III has been climbing up the rankings rather quickly, can he move straight into the top 10? The Pirates could get cute here and try to cut a deal with one of the next tier of prospects, hoping to load up with their later picks.
Vance Honeycutt and Seaver King also fit the mold here, although I’m not as high on them as Tibbs.
As far as the other picks, I’m not going to pretend to guess how things will fall, but knowing how the Pirates draft - a college player and prep pitcher would be my guess. Looking at Pipeline and Baseball America (both did recent updates), here are a few names I like in the 30-50 range.
College
Christian Moore - Might have to move to second, but has 19 home runs in the SEC while cutting back on the strikeouts yet again.
Ben Hess - My viewings haven’t been his best outing, but has the frame, velocity, and pitch mix to be an interesting college signing here.
Luke Holman - Fastball doesn’t seem overpowering, but it blends well with the curveball and has shown a change-up
Griff O’Ferrall - The Pirates don’t have many legitimate shortstops in the system. He doesn’t have much power, but has more than doubled his career output at UVA this year along (four, three coming into season).
Prep Pitcher
Joey Oakie - One of my favorite prep pitchers in the class. Throws from a lower arm-slot that the Pirates like.
Levi Sterling - Young for the draft, he won’t turn 18 until September. He’s also flashed a four-pitch mix as well, including a change-up.
David Shields - Another young, projectable pitcher that throws from a lower arm-slot. A September birthday as well, and he’s a local kid.
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I really hope Wetherholt isn’t the one who slides. Profiles a lot like the other twelve 2B prospects we already have in the system. Kurtz would be the dream scenario for the Pirates
I really hope they don't take Griff, he's a right hand hitting Jebb. Hopefully Sirota or Santucci makes it to pick 37 or a a high upside prep player. Burke looked bad last night maybe at 47 but there should be more higher value players at 37. I think you nailed it with the pick at 9, don't get cute just take the one who slides or one of the 2 high ceiling prep bats. If you go with savings Tibbs is probably the safest bat, reminds me of Michael Busch with the bat but a much better fielder that can handle a corner outfield or first base. Trey Yesavage would be a college arm I wouldn't be upset if they took but don't think they would save much.