Mapping out the potential bullpen situation

With Dauri Moreta set to miss an extended period of time, a look at how the bullpen could shape out.

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Injuries happen and are an unfortunate byproduct of baseball. It’s a reminder of how true the saying ‘you can never have enough pitching’ holds in the game.

The bullpen for the Pirates was looked at as one of the strengths of the team, and in just one day, one player left the game with an injury, and another was announced to be dealing with an issue that forced them to shut him down for now.

Now it looks like Dauri Moreta will be out for a while, and there isn’t any timetable for All-Star closer David Bednar to return to throwing.

So, the team's strength was dealt a significant blow in such a short span. What do they do next?

Let’s assume that Bednar is just early Spring precautionary stuff, and he’s ready for the start of the season.

Without Moreta, five players should be penciled into the eight-man bullpen, with three spots now up for grabs.

Potential Locks

David Bednar

Ryan Borucki

Aroldis Chapman

Colin Holderman

Carmen Mlodzinski

While the exact roles are still yet to be seen (outside of Bednar), Holderman and Chapman figure to be in a late-inning set-up role. Having not only those two but also Mlodzinski in the mix should allow them not to have to overuse Bednar, keeping him fresh throughout the season.

Based on his career numbers, it’s hard to imagine there isn’t some regression set to happen for Borucki, but even if he comes back down to earth some, he can bring plenty of value as a lefty reliever.

Multi-Inning Options

The one thing missing from the bullpen is a reliable option that could go multiple innings. Mlodzinski has the most recent history as a starter, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will shift to a multi-inning role.

Roansy Contreras and Bailey Falter are two players to watch, as they are both out of options and would have to pass through waivers before being sent to the minors.

If they don’t win one of the open rotation spots, they could shift to a bullpen role as a swingman/multi-inning reliever, which can be incredibly helpful early on in the season as the starters continue to stretch out.

Josh Fleming was signed at the start of camp, and while he mentioned getting an opportunity to earn a rotation spot, his splits have historically been better out of the bullpen, and he could be an ideal option here.

Brought in on a minor league contract, Chase Anderson, Brent Honeywell Jr., and Wily Peralta could be multi-inning options. Peralta got four whiffs on 11 swings (36%) with his splitter during a two-inning appearance on March 1.

In his first two spring games, Peralta has picked up seven whiffs on 22 swings (31%).

Honeywell was a former top prospect with the Tampa Bay Rays and pitched over 50 innings in the majors last year with two different teams. He’s posted a 27% whiff rate with his fastball (combined four-seam/sinker) and a 41.6% mark with his breaking pitches (sweeper and screwball) this spring.

His last outing was rough (three earned runs in two-thirds of an inning), but overall, he has been solid and one of the more used pitchers in camp.

Filling Out The Rest

Let’s say the Pirates go with two of those options above, solely to make sure they don’t have to overuse their rotation so early in the season, that leaves one more open spot, which in an ideal scenario goes to Moreta.

Three of those left are on the 40-man roster, so they’d make the most sense.

Jose Hernandez

Colin Selby

Kyle Nicolas

Keeping Hernandez could give the Pirates up to four left-handed pitchers in the bullpen. They could send him back to Triple-A to keep working on his control, which would leave Selby and Nicolas.

Both have struggled to throw strikes in Spring, leading to them to get beat up a bit. Selby has allowed three runs on three walks and four hits across his first two innings. Nicolas hasn’t had the same walk issues (just two) but has allowed eight hits and five earned runs in four innings.

Hernandez currently leads the pitching staff with six walks.

On the Non-Roster side, Hunter Stratton has been off to a fantastic start, throwing four scoreless innings with just one walk and five strikeouts.

Excluding his last appearances against the Rays (no available tracking), Stratton has picked up 12 whiffs on 22 swings. His best pitch, the cutter, has a 63.6% whiff rate so far (7/11).

Until the Moreta injury, it was hard to see a scenario for an NRI to sneak on the roster, but now someone like Stratton has an even better chance of making the team.

The Pirates have a strong core in the bullpen, and while losing Moreta is a big blow, they have a solid enough group left that they should still have success.

After that, it gets a little cloudier, but at the very least, they have a wide range of options to ensure they get things precisely as they want.