Minor league observations of the 2025 Pirates ZiPS Projections
Looking at some notable prospect data from the latest ZiPS projections for the Pirates
The ZiPS projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates and the 2025 season were released earlier this week. We reviewed some of the major league projections in the Morning Rundown the other day, but we wanted to explore what they said about some of the prospects in the system.
After digging through all of the projections and looking at some of the players who still have prospect status, here are a few names that stood out, good or bad.
Nick Cimillo
Surprisingly, there is an argument that could be made that the ZiPS projections were the most favorable to Nick Cimillo this year.
ZiPS had him at 89 OPS+ and 0.2 WAR, which isn't bad for a player who has only reached Double-A. His projected OPS+ is better than Billy Cook, Nick Yorke, and Ke’Bryan Hayes.
Cook and Yorke are two prospects expected to at least make an impact in the majors this year, and Hayes has multiple years in the majors. Cimillo is at least expected to improve, with a three-year OPS+ of 92.
His 80th percentile OPS+ outcome is 110. So, one of his better potential outcomes this season would make him an above-average hitter.
Cimillo has an intriguing blend of hitting ability and power potential, which likely played into the projections liking him so much.
Jack Brannigan
Looking at some of these numbers aren’t impressive on the surface. None of them will say, ‘Get him to the majors, now,’ but you have to remember a lot of these guys aren’t expected to make their debuts this year, anyway.
Jack Brannigan is one of those names that stand out. His 80 OPS+ isn’t far off from where Yorke's (84) or Isiah Kiner-Falefa's (82) project. His 80th percentile OPS+ ticks just north of average at 103 and is nearly a two WAR player in that scenario.
It's not bad for a guy that hasn’t hit above A-Ball yet. His ability to elevate the ball likely plays a big part in the favorable projection.
Thomas Harrington
It’s likely the floor to Thomas Harrington that has ZiPS transforming him straight to a back-end starting pitcher in 2025 and a league-average pitcher over the next three years.
They give him a 96 ERA+ in 2025 and a 100 3YERA+. He’s slightly over a two-win player in his 80th-percentile outcome for the upcoming season. Even in one of his worst outcomes, he is still worth slightly under a win (0.7 WAR).
Braxton Ashcraft
An injury likely kept Braxton Ashcraft from making his major league debut in 2024, but he should be in line for that at some point this upcoming season.
ZiPS likes what he could bring to the table value-wise, with a 105 ERA+ and 107 3YERA+. They have a 20th percentile ERA of 4.65 and a 0.7 WAR, not bad for one of his ‘worst’ possible outcomes.
Jaden Woods
Although last year's results weren’t exactly stellar, the consensus is that Jaden Woods has the stuff to pitch in the majors someday. ZiPS is projected to have a league average of 100 3YERA+ and 95 ERA+ in 2025.
There is plenty of underlying data to suggest the 4.93 ERA he put up in Altoona can easily come down going forward.
Bubba Chandler
Perhaps the most surprising of the prospects was the lack of love they had for Bubba Chandler, at least compared to the hype surrounding him now. Despite being one of the early favorites for NL Rookie of the Year, ZiPS has him at a 93 ERA+, along with a below-average 20% strikeout rate.
His three-year ERA+ is still below 100 (98), so although there are improvements, not by much overall.
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Sorry for all of you who have a bromance with Dan, the Zips creator, but the fact they have Nick G better than BRey this year, Skenes only winning 8 games, and Bubba as below league average in 3 years is proof his system is flawed.
Way too many stats now in sports. More than half the time I don't know what they are trying to show.