Monday Mailbag: Overlooked pitchers, Top 30 breakouts

Another weekly mailbag article looks at breakouts, and overlooked pitchers.

Photo Credit: WTM

Dan McGurk - So, I’ve been using Ethan’s roster spreadsheet. On the MiLFA tab, I noticed that only Abrahan Gutierrez and Cristofer Melendez remain after all the others elected free agency. Is this usual for so many players to elect free agency? Is this a by-product of the new roster rules, as conveniently, 40 players remain between Indy and Altoona?

What would make all the others leave but not those two?

I believe Ethan answered this on Twitter, but Cristofer Melendez was on the restricted list all year, so he basically rolled over, and then Gutierrez already resigned.

The Pirates were high on Gutierrez, so it’s not a surprise they worked something out with him before we even got into the offseason.

Carson (@CAWafflez): Most overlooked pitcher in the system? (side note, check out this Medium page here, with a recent article on Luis Ortiz)

I like this question because it has multiple layers, at least to me. I think an answer people might not expect is Thomas Harrington. I watched nearly every start he had last year, and I believe he is much closer in talent to the top guys than some give him credit for. I get the feeling some view him as a high-floor/low-ceiling type of guy, I may have even been guilty of that earlier in the year.

But there is a lot more upside than I think people believe. He finished in a tie with Jared Jones for the system lead in strikeouts, his fastball plays well up in the zone, and has two above-average secondary pitches. There’s a lot there, and I don’t think people realize it yet.

I asked Greensboro manager Robby Hammock what player he thought wasn’t getting enough attention, and he said Derek Diamond. He raved about his pitchability and figured he could pitch pro ball for a long time.

I’ve been burned many times by lower-level relievers, but Joshua Loeschorn checks many boxes you want, he had the lowest xFIP in the system and struck out a good amount of hitters while showing good control. His sinker induced many grounders, and the slider gets loads of whiffs.

There are so many, still, I believe Owen Kellington is a tick or two with his fastball and better control (I’ll even settle for just control right now) away from making a huge jump.

PNC Yark (@eYARKulation): Top 5 guys from this we should be most excited about in 24?

I saw a little of Zander Mueth in a stream of Instructionals, and I’m really excited about him. We probably won’t see much of him though in 2024, so I’ll put him on the shelf for now. If all falls into place, I’ll be in Bradenton during the FCL season, and will try to plan it to see him pitch.

Alessandro Ercolani - Don’t let the AFL stint cloud any opinion on him, I think there is a lot there to like. He has a good fastball, a cutter that was recognized by BA, and the curve was unhittable in the AFL. He’s probably going to get beat up in Greensboro, but he’s another bigger picture prospect.

Michael Kennedy - The Pirates like there lower arm slot/horizontal release point pitchers, and Kennedy falls into that. I like his stuff, and while the command was spotty, was unhittable at times as one of the youngest pitchers in the AFL and Single-A.

Owen Kellington - He’s another guy that may get beat up in Greensboro, but his change is filthy, and throws four other pitchers with it. With more velocity/control, he flies up rankings.

Jun-Seok Shim - Injuries wiped out most of his 2023 season, but the reports were strong on him in his brief time.

Valentin Linarez - Want a super deep sleeper for the Pirates bullpen in 2024? Linarez was money once moving to the bullpen. Looking up his Winter League numbers a week ago and it looks like he’s still pitching well. I saw him pitch in Greensboro and he was blowing fastballs past hitters with ease.

Michael - 412 Double Play Podcast: Prospects poised to break into Top 30 list in 2024? (side note: listen to their podcast; they do a great job, once my house thing is situated, I hope to jump back on with them for an episode).

We’ll have a more in-depth article on this closer to the season, and more Top 30 list are unveiled, including ours here at the site.

One name that isn’t talked about outside of the site, at least that I’ve noticed, that I’m high on is Omar Alfonzo. He checked a lot of boxes last year in Bradenton - exit velocity numbers based on his age were good, showed great plate discipline and contact while playing strong defense behind the plate.

I'm not sure what his overall upside is, but think he’s Top 30 capable, and probably one guy I’m watching closely next year.

Owen Kellington and Alessandro Ercolani are two pitchers from Bradenton I really liked too. Ercolani really struggled with his control in the AFL, and there are some concerns in general with it, but that stint will probably leave a sour taste in most peoples mouth.