Morning Rundown: NL ZiPS projections, Top 25 list, Jonathan India signs extension
ZiPS gives their projections on the Pirates and Jonathan India signs an extension.
FanGraphs released their National League predictions based on their ZiPS projections, and the Pirates are currently predicted to finish in last place in the NL Central with a record of 75-87.
It gives them a 6.8% shot to win the division, 7.1% for the Wild Card, and 13.9% to make the playoffs.
The model likes the St. Louis Cardinals to go from last to first, with 83 wins potentially good enough to win the division. They are the only team with a winning record, with the Cubs projected to finish 81-81 and the rest under .500.
In year five under Ben Cherington, this isn’t exactly the position you want to be in, but after a slower off-season and the fact they are counting on a lot of unknown quantities to carry them, this record makes sense.
Only the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies are projected to finish with a worse record among all National League teams.
These numbers seem more conservative, as it puts the Dodgers at 93 wins, and with the off-season they had, you would probably expect them to push triple digits.
Jonathan India signed a two-year extension with the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, avoiding arbitration.
This was the first year he was eligible for arbitration, and he will be eligible one more time before becoming a free agent.
India won the Rookie of the Year in 2021, but there were some questions about his long-term fit with the organization with the emergence of some of their other infield prospects like Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain.
He’s played particularly well against the Pirates, batting .300/.391/.477 with four home runs, 20 RBIs, and an OPS+ of 126 in 38 games.
Friday, we released our top 25 prospects in the Pirates’ system, and the response has been excellent so far.
The list was voted on by Nola, WTM, and myself. The write-ups were a culmination of multiple years of watching certain prospects play. It’s quite the read, but it’s well worth it.
You can always sign up for a seven-day free trial to read it and look at some of the other premium articles on the site. I have another one on the works that goes back to the video room for a breakdown of a prospect I’m excited to see what he brings in 2024.
You can also sign up for a yearly subscription right now as a part of our ‘Season Kick-Off’ special and get 20% off, which comes to basically $3.33/month.
Not only does it get you access to our top 25 list and the player write-ups but also my video breakdowns and my player features from when I travel to the games. There are a few other things I’m working on as well to give even more value to your subscription.
We could have a whole thread on the impact of GMs above and beyond ownership. Tampa Bay has shown that excellent management can overcome all the structural obstacles to being competitive in a small market and/or with a cheap owner. Billy Beane did the same in Oakland for two decades before finally running out of mojo. I don’t think Nutting is deliberately choosing mediocre GMs, but his choices are another sign that he’s a poor owner apart from the financial constraints.
I looked up Branch Rickey’s tenure with the Pirates in the early 50s after he left the Dodgers. He was in charge from 1951 to 1955. OK —— a different era (pre-draft, minuscule salaries, etc.). In four years he added Clemente and Face from the Rule 5 draft, and signed Law, Friend, Groat, and Mazeroski. He brought Howie Haak over from the Dodgers to be one of the lead scouts. Incredible.
Joe L. Brown put the finishing touches on the 1960 champions and built the juggernaut development apparatus of the 60s and early 70s, but it was Rickey who laid the foundation.
It’s a lot to ask, but a great GM can make it work in Pittsburgh even now. They just haven’t had the talent in the front office to pull it off.
FWIW on any of these projected standings systems, the Pirates will ALWAYS have to outperform their projections and rely on the randomness of the sport.