Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Keller got bundled with Hayes' underwater deal to NY for Jones and Schlittler. Perfectly even deal by BTV and Cherington wants that Hayes money to go away.
My definition of clutch is a guy that delivers in a pressure situation, especially when the game is on the line. I think fangraphs formula for clutch is different.
Clutch (Clutch Score): The difference between a player’s totalWPA/pLI and their WPA/LI defined above or translated: how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than they do in neutral ones.
I think they are pretty loose on their definition of a high leverage situation. It seems Nick has to be close to the top of the Pirates list on game winning hits in clutch situations. Does it say their definition of a high leverage situation?
Thanks for the read. There is methodology and pretty neat to look at. I read it once and most made sense. I was a little fuzzy on how the inning is calculated on the pLI. I know they use a multiplier, but that's all I know. My guess is they count the early innings more than I would. I think it is who comes through the most in game changing opportunities, which if they want to call that clutch that is fine I guess. It seems like Nick has had big hits late several times. I hope a manager wouldn't pinch-hit Jared Triolo for him late because the chart says Nick is the 3rd worst on the team. Always fun to look at and break apart, kind of like WAR or any stat really.
Trevor Williams was getting lit up in a DH last week and was allowed to throw 54 pitches in an inning allowing 6 runs. Then he pitched 2 more innings after that! Now he's going under the knife for partial UCL or a full TJ.....tbd.
I guess the Nats interim is old school.....that decision may haunt him.
If you're going to trade Keller, having the two NYC teams competing against each other is the way to go. But if Ben can't get a return that leaves the Yankees/Mets fanbase crying that they gave up to much, then he needs to hold on to Keller.
My dude in this trade is Ben Rice. Can't see the Yankees paying the 110% tax which makes Keller cost $35M next season. But it ain't my money and they are desperate for a good SP.
I'd be fine with Jones on pure upside even with the downside as part of a deal. Lombard + Jones I'd actually be fairly happy with but it's an overpay. We sort of have to get Spencer Jones to put in the lineup near Jared Jones, right? Next August we could see Jared Jones starting games with Spencer Jones playing LF and Jared Jones at 1B.
I’ve always been a little skeptical of their stuff. It’s been awhile since I went there, but their values used to swing wildly for prospects.
Mitch’s value is hard to figure. Even though his Ks are down, he’s also brought his walks way down. He’s controlled for 3.5 more years. So that should definitely warrant a top 100 guy and some other good pieces…which is what a Lombard/Jones combo is. But I don’t think the Yankees do that because they’ll probably want someone with more…high octane stuff and swing and miss.
I like BTV. They give pretty in depth updates about how their models are performing and how they change them. Here's how they evaluate, sort of: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history
You seem to be the poster with the issues here. I'm just talking about the trade deadline, weirdo. I hope you find a practical way to get your anger under control.
The blind assumption that the owners would negotiate a *larger* portion of revenue toward player salaries under a capped league and the idea that it’s the players handicapping young stars in the face of owners wanting to lavish them with more money are the most asinine things I’ve ever heard in baseball labor relations.
Did you read the part where over 50% of MLB players are making basically the same amount as the minimum wage of hockey?
Do you think it’s possible if Owners and Players actually start acting like partners in a business, rather than adversaries, the business would thrive and all would benefit economically?
I suspect it'd be smaller at the top of the pyramid and larger at the base which I would be fine with. So many of the biggest contracts end up shitty anyway. Fewer Carlos Correa's and Juan Soto might get $100M less.
The evidence justifying continuing the existing system for the betterment of players, owners, and especially fans, is impossible to find.
It’s blatantly obvious MLBPA only cares about the top relatively few players and most notably, their agents. And the Owners won’t band together to insist on meaningful changes to improve the economics of the sport because neither the big or small markets want it to change.
And lastly, the Commissioner is toothless and only concerned with placating the big market owners of the sport.
I think MLB is likely to go to the mat for changes this time. It’s not that they care about competition. They never have. They care about money. They wanted the Yankees and Dodgers to go deep in the postseason every year because they felt those were the big drivers of revenue.
But now competition and revenue align because streaming is replacing cable. Until recently, MLB just had to sell its broadcast product to networks and cable companies. But with streaming, it needs to sell directly to individual customers. Suddenly, fans in Pittsburgh and Kansas City matter. MLB can’t afford to let those markets continue to wither. So Manfred suddenly wants competition.
Jim Rosati disagrees with you. He believes MLB doesn’t want to rock the boat with TV deals set to expire in ‘27.
Not sure which one of you is right.
I don’t trust Owners, MLBPA, or Manfred to do what’s best for the sport.
It’s blatantly obvious to me the Owners stance of shielding their books, and MLBPA’s stance on the Owners being the enemy, have only resulted in a worse sport for the majority of fans.
I expect pain and suffering. Anything better will be a pleasant surprise.
"“While Frazier is certainly not the impactful offense upgrade the Royals will seek as the July 31 Trade Deadline nears, the club has long thought its bench needed a veteran presence to give what the industry likes to call a “professional at-bat” — working the pitch count, working a walk, poking a single the other way, moving runners over or getting them in from third, etc. — coming in late in games when needed.”
Those GMs who labor under this assumption have thus passed Frazier back and forth like a jumbo tub of popcorn at a movie theater; this was his second stint in Pittsburgh, and it will be his second stint in Kansas City, too."
Question: I know we look at this trade deadline as the time to trade our major league players that won't be back next year. Is it also time to trade our minor league players that probably won't be back next year, if we can find any takers? It looks like Peguero, Alika and maybe a few others will not stay on the 40 man this offseason.
Cards save just shy of 1 million to sign Liam Doyle. So I would think Hernandez is under slot also, not a bad outcome if he doesn't sign could have 2 picks in the top seven next year.
"“Devanney has been lifting and pulverizing everything soft in the zone to all fields, hitting 11 home runs before Memorial Day,” Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan wrote in this year’s Royals prospect list.
Devanney has added another seven home runs in the seven weeks since Memorial Day, and is currently rocking a 137 wRC+ in Triple-A while playing shortstop most of the time."
https://pinstripesnation.com/yankees-trade-package-fixes-holes-without-losing-top-rookies-2025-07-14/
Hate this one
Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Keller got bundled with Hayes' underwater deal to NY for Jones and Schlittler. Perfectly even deal by BTV and Cherington wants that Hayes money to go away.
We were promised a roster move to happen today
We just traded away our "hitter" with the highest clutch numbers in Frazier: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=3&season=2025&month=0&season1=2025&ind=0&sortcol=11&sortdir=desc&team=27&qual=60
Cutch then Reynolds then Nick G are the worst.
My definition of clutch is a guy that delivers in a pressure situation, especially when the game is on the line. I think fangraphs formula for clutch is different.
Clutch (Clutch Score): The difference between a player’s totalWPA/pLI and their WPA/LI defined above or translated: how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than they do in neutral ones.
I think they are pretty loose on their definition of a high leverage situation. It seems Nick has to be close to the top of the Pirates list on game winning hits in clutch situations. Does it say their definition of a high leverage situation?
The difference between their [total WPA:http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/wpa/ divided by their pLI: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/li/] and their WPA/LI: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/wpa-li/
Its all there in those glossary articles. I'm not going to argue they have it right or wrong, personally, but there's at least a methodology there.
Thanks for the read. There is methodology and pretty neat to look at. I read it once and most made sense. I was a little fuzzy on how the inning is calculated on the pLI. I know they use a multiplier, but that's all I know. My guess is they count the early innings more than I would. I think it is who comes through the most in game changing opportunities, which if they want to call that clutch that is fine I guess. It seems like Nick has had big hits late several times. I hope a manager wouldn't pinch-hit Jared Triolo for him late because the chart says Nick is the 3rd worst on the team. Always fun to look at and break apart, kind of like WAR or any stat really.
Trevor Williams was getting lit up in a DH last week and was allowed to throw 54 pitches in an inning allowing 6 runs. Then he pitched 2 more innings after that! Now he's going under the knife for partial UCL or a full TJ.....tbd.
I guess the Nats interim is old school.....that decision may haunt him.
Boo. I always liked Trev. Stupid Gnats.
According to mlbtraderumors Yankees have interest in mitch Keller as do the Mets, Cubs. I'm ok with moving Keller if the offer is above average.
If you're going to trade Keller, having the two NYC teams competing against each other is the way to go. But if Ben can't get a return that leaves the Yankees/Mets fanbase crying that they gave up to much, then he needs to hold on to Keller.
My dude in this trade is Ben Rice. Can't see the Yankees paying the 110% tax which makes Keller cost $35M next season. But it ain't my money and they are desperate for a good SP.
Spencer Jones? Dude terrifies me.
Edit: I do not mean Jones as a centerpiece.
I'd be fine with Jones on pure upside even with the downside as part of a deal. Lombard + Jones I'd actually be fairly happy with but it's an overpay. We sort of have to get Spencer Jones to put in the lineup near Jared Jones, right? Next August we could see Jared Jones starting games with Spencer Jones playing LF and Jared Jones at 1B.
Overpay based on what? And I’m good with Jones if it keeps us up with the Joneses. Or makes our team the Joneses!
BTV models
I’ve always been a little skeptical of their stuff. It’s been awhile since I went there, but their values used to swing wildly for prospects.
Mitch’s value is hard to figure. Even though his Ks are down, he’s also brought his walks way down. He’s controlled for 3.5 more years. So that should definitely warrant a top 100 guy and some other good pieces…which is what a Lombard/Jones combo is. But I don’t think the Yankees do that because they’ll probably want someone with more…high octane stuff and swing and miss.
I like BTV. They give pretty in depth updates about how their models are performing and how they change them. Here's how they evaluate, sort of: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history
BTV model suck and only a loser would be going on and on about it...
Bill J Lo Clinton
Retire Nutting
Bob Nutting
You can change your handle dozens of times, but as soon as you start posting it's quite obvious. The Asperger traits are too big of a tell.
You seem to be the poster with the issues here. I'm just talking about the trade deadline, weirdo. I hope you find a practical way to get your anger under control.
Even organizations have swing for the fences sometimes.
Apparently they've signed a undrafted free agent. RHP Treyson Peters from Western Kentucky. Senior signing.
Expecting lots o’ these.
Not sure about this but do all draft choices have to be signed by the end of july? If not signed team loses the player.
5pm July 28
This was a good read: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/players-association-spin-mlb-salary-cap-easily-disproven/b8cbc2bc9f3d32d0dc3af17f
As the owner of the club, I'm in.
what an embarrassingly naive article.
I didn't have that reaction. The union sucks for all but the upper 20th percentile of players.
The blind assumption that the owners would negotiate a *larger* portion of revenue toward player salaries under a capped league and the idea that it’s the players handicapping young stars in the face of owners wanting to lavish them with more money are the most asinine things I’ve ever heard in baseball labor relations.
Did you read the part where over 50% of MLB players are making basically the same amount as the minimum wage of hockey?
Do you think it’s possible if Owners and Players actually start acting like partners in a business, rather than adversaries, the business would thrive and all would benefit economically?
I do.
I prefer Nick to Frazier
I suspect it'd be smaller at the top of the pyramid and larger at the base which I would be fine with. So many of the biggest contracts end up shitty anyway. Fewer Carlos Correa's and Juan Soto might get $100M less.
I take the simplest point of view — the union and the owners are all assholes.
The evidence justifying continuing the existing system for the betterment of players, owners, and especially fans, is impossible to find.
It’s blatantly obvious MLBPA only cares about the top relatively few players and most notably, their agents. And the Owners won’t band together to insist on meaningful changes to improve the economics of the sport because neither the big or small markets want it to change.
And lastly, the Commissioner is toothless and only concerned with placating the big market owners of the sport.
I think MLB is likely to go to the mat for changes this time. It’s not that they care about competition. They never have. They care about money. They wanted the Yankees and Dodgers to go deep in the postseason every year because they felt those were the big drivers of revenue.
But now competition and revenue align because streaming is replacing cable. Until recently, MLB just had to sell its broadcast product to networks and cable companies. But with streaming, it needs to sell directly to individual customers. Suddenly, fans in Pittsburgh and Kansas City matter. MLB can’t afford to let those markets continue to wither. So Manfred suddenly wants competition.
Jim Rosati disagrees with you. He believes MLB doesn’t want to rock the boat with TV deals set to expire in ‘27.
Not sure which one of you is right.
I don’t trust Owners, MLBPA, or Manfred to do what’s best for the sport.
It’s blatantly obvious to me the Owners stance of shielding their books, and MLBPA’s stance on the Owners being the enemy, have only resulted in a worse sport for the majority of fans.
I expect pain and suffering. Anything better will be a pleasant surprise.
Jim Rosati is an idioit
I disagree.
But that doesn’t mean I think he’s right.
I don’t underestimate the stupidity of owners, MLBPA, and Manfred.
Who is he? Genuinely don’t know the name.
Pretty much everybody connected to the sport is expecting a work stoppage, so I’m not sure where no rocking the boat comes from.
He claims all sides are pretty happy with the status quo.
Red Sox making a run at it / sure would like Mayer in return for some of our pitching
Brazoban just got robbed of a walkoff HR. Kid looks much better than I expected.
"“While Frazier is certainly not the impactful offense upgrade the Royals will seek as the July 31 Trade Deadline nears, the club has long thought its bench needed a veteran presence to give what the industry likes to call a “professional at-bat” — working the pitch count, working a walk, poking a single the other way, moving runners over or getting them in from third, etc. — coming in late in games when needed.”
Those GMs who labor under this assumption have thus passed Frazier back and forth like a jumbo tub of popcorn at a movie theater; this was his second stint in Pittsburgh, and it will be his second stint in Kansas City, too."
LOL
And a jumbo tub of popcorn drenched with warm butter just never gets old.
FCL Bucs actually beat the effing delayed double steal. Got a nice return throw to the plate in time.
This LHP, Ronaldys Jimenez, has really good stuff, just walks too many. Not “wild” exactly, just misses by a little much of the time.
Ron Jim?
From LA? As in Lower Alabama.
Question: I know we look at this trade deadline as the time to trade our major league players that won't be back next year. Is it also time to trade our minor league players that probably won't be back next year, if we can find any takers? It looks like Peguero, Alika and maybe a few others will not stay on the 40 man this offseason.
As an add on, it'd be hard to move guys on the 40 though.
If we trade them, do they have to go on the other team's 40 man?
Yep if they're on the Pirates 40 man.
That would make it difficult to trade those guys for anything of much value. Thanks.
Cards save just shy of 1 million to sign Liam Doyle. So I would think Hernandez is under slot also, not a bad outcome if he doesn't sign could have 2 picks in the top seven next year.
If he's under slot it would be minimal, he's going to get more than Hunter Green got from the Reds at least.
There's absolutely no indication hes not going to sign
This one seems to good to be true. The Royals already had a relationship with Frazier.
But getting a post-prospect SS with. .931 OPS who hits HRs in AAA is eye-opening. On paper this grades as a "10" for Ben.
"“Devanney has been lifting and pulverizing everything soft in the zone to all fields, hitting 11 home runs before Memorial Day,” Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan wrote in this year’s Royals prospect list.
Devanney has added another seven home runs in the seven weeks since Memorial Day, and is currently rocking a 137 wRC+ in Triple-A while playing shortstop most of the time."
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trade-season-comes-in-like-a-lamb/
Hello Bob, I see you decided to un-retire. That's a good photo of you.
Just excited about a new bat in the system. I hope the guys in Indy don't screw with Devanney too much.
Don't get too excited. He's 28 and never been in the majors.
Great point!
Because this guy has been blocking him: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bobby-witt-jr/25764/stats?position=SS
https://x.com/Royals/status/1943754891433787728
And this guy
Bad ass bling on Garcia there.
Could you imagine having that much talent on a baseball roster?