Nick Gonzales has been hitting, but has anything changed?

Nick Gonzales has provided a spark for Pirates' offense, but can he keep it up?

Photo Credit: Ryan Palencer

Few players in the minors this season, Pirates’ system or not, got off to a better start than Nick Gonzales.

Starting the year with Triple-A Indianapolis, the former first-round pick Gonzales was among the league leaders in most offensive categories in the International League.

With the Pirates struggling to score runs, they recalled Gonzales on May 10, and he didn’t waste too much time getting things rolling. In 10 games this season in the majors, Gonzales has already picked up two home runs and a double while batting .273 (.432 slugging).

Direct or not, the offense has also averaged 4.8 runs per game in the 12 he’s played. It’s a small sample size, but as much as they have struggled to put runs on the board, it’s been a welcomed stretch, even if they are just .500 in that span.

Gonzales has more or less been as advertised as far as what he could bring to the Pirates’ lineup. He’s doing most of his damage against fastballs, with both home runs coming against them.

He’s gone 2-15 when facing breaking pitches with three strikeouts and a 28.1% whiff rate. The expected took a good step forward, but it is still something to be desired after picking up his first two hits on the season against breaking pitches (.208 xBA, .119 xwOBA).

It’s still a small sample size, and these numbers look a lot better than they previously did before the Giants series. He’s heading in the right direction, so we will see how things go after stabilizing a little more.

That was part of the issue with him in Triple-A, as although he was making more contact with breaking pitches, the quality wasn’t great (.270 xwOBA in AAA). The in-zone contact rate was better against spin than it was versus fastballs (83% to 80%).

So, there is some hope. The main issue was his extending out of the strike zone too often, which has carried over to the majors (his chase rate is currently well below average).

Gonzales has a double against off-speed pitches, and his expected numbers are right up there with his work against fastballs. He’s only whiffed 11% of the time against off-speed, which is way down from last year and what he’s done in Triple-A (46.2%). The in-zone contact rate was the best against off-speed, so it will be a matter of how often he can cut back on the chase.

It’s a small sample size, but Gonzales' work against fastballs has been incredible. He legitimately could become one of the best fastball hitters in the league.

His average exit velocity against fastballs is 95.9 mph, which, along with the launch angle (19°), it’s no wonder his expected stats are through the roof (.344 xBA, .644 xSLG, .430 xwOBA).

Part of the success Gonzales is having is in his aggressiveness. He leads the team in Swing% (swings at 56.3% of the pitches he sees) and swing rate in the zone (75.8%).

The aggressiveness has led to a 41.3% swing rate out of the zone, but he also has a 95.7% in-zone contact rate right now.

There is a chance he’s in line for a regression if he doesn’t cut back on that chase rate. Doing so would create more opportunities in the strike zone, which he’s thriving at currently.

If pitchers continue to throw strikes early in counts, especially fastballs, Gonzales could keep up his current pace.

He’ll have to adjust if they start throwing more out of the zone early in counts, but that’s part of establishing yourself as a major league regular.

Regardless, Gonzales continues to show just how good of a fastball hitter he is, and that alone could allow him to go on tears occasionally if things align for him. Even if the success against breaking pitches never comes, he’s starting to align himself to be successful against two of the three types (fastball and off-speed), which should allow him to continue to hit.

Which right now, the Pirates need as the offense continues to look for consistency.

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