81 Comments

Deep Thoughts...

David Bednar is currently the oldest player on the Pirates 40 man, at the ripe old age of 30.

Paul Skenes is currently the youngest player on the Pirates 40 man, at the young age of 22.

What are the odds Skenes throws the first pitch of the 2025 season and that Bednar throws the last???

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26.2%.

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you know KeBryan is from Houston

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He’s also a Gold Glover.

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Forrest Whitley would be a nice return

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5 years ago!!!!

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Jake Taylor description 🤣🤣

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Retired.

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Thank goodness for Forrest it wasn’t “This here guy is dead”.

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Well… we can still cross him off.

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"What exactly the role will be is yet to be determined, but the Pirates did a great job trading from a position of strength to a position of weakness."

Doesn't it remain to be seen how great a job they did? The concept is good, but it's not clear yet that Cook or Yorke will actually address that weakness any more than Park and Castillo (as BF2023 also notes below), say, filled a weakness.

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Spot on

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So, BRey is #1 on the Bucs in Outs Above Average in the outfield for 2024?

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Nope BR had a (-13), Cruz and Cook had (2) each, MAT probably had the most, I'd need to look it up though. MAT had (11).

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2022 Jack Suwinski, let alone 2023, and 2024 Nick Yorke get you 3 WAR platoon in RF.

That's $80m Anthony Santander.

Seems crazy, but it's true.

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Not trying to get all emotional, but it’s a travesty how much Suwinski’s trade value has plummeted from last off-season to this one.

Not opposed to this idea or even seeing Yorke as the right side platoon at 1B, RF is probably a better fit tho with the pieces they currently have on the roster.

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Yorke has had pretty extreme reverse splits through the minors, he hits much better vs right hand pitching. I think he'll adjust and have pretty even splits. It might be just the lack of seeing them, getting sawed off on breaking pitches while hitting the ball off the end of the barrel on arm side run fastballs.

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With you on him filling that role at 1B, too, but I think this is how they're gonna get Reynolds at-bats there.

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I think it going to be Reynolds as well against lefties.

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This is not in any way to defend the Pirates’ outrageous penny pinching, but even the middle tier free agent market can be seriously overpriced. I am not a fan of potentially paying big bucks to guys with obvious flaws like Santander just to say you’ve done something. My problem with Cherington is that he doesn’t appear to have an overall strategy and makes random “value” pickups that don’t mesh together.

I feel the Rays are the model franchise in this regard —- keep going for real value and never overpay. But the current Pirates front office (not to mention latter years NH) does not have the smarts to implement that strategy.

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A lot of the lower mid-tier free agents aren’t really moving the needle that much either, think Conforto at $17 MM. As constructed they could be about an 80 win team. Need internal improvements and avoiding messes like that the 1B/RF debacle last year to push them the rest of the way.

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I would postulate that the majority of those diminishing returns are coming from overpaying lower, mid-tier FAs.

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I couldn't have said it better.

Now if I had the money, I absolutely still would lead with a Santander type and back the potential failure with thrifty options but that doesn't mean the thrifty options stand no chance of beating a Santander.

The main reason I'm not a doomer about the "economics of baseball" is because of the fact that there's HUGE diminishing returns on spending. The difference between a $250m roster and a $150m roster is like, *maybe*, a couple percentage points of win probability. Baseball is inherently random enough to just about wipe that out.

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My only concern is that the trend in spending is pushing salaries significantly higher across the board, and we are at a point where only a handful of teams can afford to pay the very best players in FA. Even some of the mid-tier FAs are being priced out of smaller revenue markets, all other things being equal.

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I don't disagree, but do kinda of feel like as Pirate fans we feel this more than nearly all other clubs.

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You’re almost certainly right, but I want BC to at least give us fans some reason to believe he’s trying harder to win than keep his job. He’s like the smart kid who tries just hard enough to pass.

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The proof will be in the pudding, but they at least have the potential to have some effective platoons which is one way to build a winner on a lower budget.

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Maybe i need a stiff drink or something but somehow this doesn't sound like the worst situation to me. Is that solution any worse than signing one of the realistic options that's left like Kepler? Since that's probably the kind of player we are looking at, might just rather throw $15 mil at the pen

Gonna go touch grass and see if I still think this is a good idea

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I've been preaching this all winter, brother.

Reynolds to first.

One outfield acquisition.

Suwinski platoon.

Rebuild the pen.

They've got a fighting chance at 86 wins right there.

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The first two would be hard pressed to do worse.

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And now one more SP, imo, in case Bubba isn't ready in April. Someone like Quintana, or Quintana himself. Dream signing--Scherzer to mentor Keller, Skenes, Jones, ... I don't know if that's a good idea, but Max has been my favorite non-Pirates pitcher for a while now.

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He’s cooked. Play the kids.

Something romantic about a rotation filled with high octane bad ass early 20’s kids.

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Which one is washed? Q or Scherzer? I actually think both have a little left in the tank. Would love to have either one signed.

As romantic as an all-cherub rotation may be, thats unlikely to last for the duration. They’ll need some outside help.

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I was speaking of Scherzer. I think he’s an injury waiting to happen.

Would love to have Q back if they trade Falter. But not at expense of Chandler. I want Chandler to be on OD roster.

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love that guy.

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it all hangs on matt hague

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Jack, Endy, Henry, Peggy, Cook, Yorke, Bae, Triolo, Kiner-Falefa.... None of those guys have high expectations to do well, but most of them leave us believing they have an untapped skill set. If two or even 3 of them break out next year, that would be huge.

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I think it’s possible several of those guys could beat their performances from last year: Jack, Hank and Triolo for sure.

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Horwitz at 1B means they might be able to get away without the big outfield bat, but I'd still like them to try.

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Do you think they still have Reynolds play some 1B against lefties to spell Horwitz? Still need an outfield acquisition of some kind.

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Edit: I’m a day late, Scott’s got it.

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Horwitz could probably handle RF? I’ve wondered about this.

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He’s going to play 1B nearly every day. I foresee Reynolds manning 1B against the top LHSP’s, but otherwise a regular OF with occasional DH.

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Well, he was saying he wanted Reynolds moved to first, and they could probably still accommodate that despite Horwitz being on the roster?

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The extra bat acquisition just gives them insurance if someone doesn't pull their weight/injuries happen. Now that Tucker is in the division, we desperately need to add at least two viable lefty arms for the pen and let Strahm go to work.

I really find it hard to believe we can't pull out a few 2 WAR solutions between suwinski, yorke, cook, nicky G being put in positions to succeed and mostly facing the handedness that they are best suited for. Hell, when cutch sits its usually against RHP so Suwinski has another 30 games of DH built in right there where he should be above league average.

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I'm thinking a trade for Marte might not be a bad platoon with Suwinski. Mets paying down his salary, hits lefties at an above average level, still has an above average arm, knows how to play left field at PNC (at a diminished level). Then I can still hope for Mauricio as part of the return depending on what the pirates give up

Right or left field will depend on where Reynolds best fits.

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Sorry, I have deep-seated scar tissue about Marte. I can't watch his lolli-gagging style of play on defense or on the base paths or at the plate at times. Yes he's an ultra-talented athlete, but no thanks.

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Marte seems like more of a RF for Pirates if they dealt for him.

I think there’s a decent chance the OF will be Cook/Suwinski platoon in LF, Cruz in Center, and Reynolds in RF.

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Reynolds won’t move from left.

Cook/Jack could man RF

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Probably

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Self-appointed President of the Billy Cook Fan Club (TM) checking in!

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Captain Cook?

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One of my favorite plays I saw him make in triple A was with him in center and a runner on first with one out. A routine fly ball in center, he dropped back a few steps, got a running start, caught it, threw a bullet on the money to the first baseman. It would have been an easy double play, if the first baseman had his foot on the bag. :)

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I saw that play, the young man has a high baseball IQ.

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He probably won't keep up his 81 defensive runs saved pace over 162 games in the outfield but the arm, speed, reads, and routs look promising for well above average. I'm hoping the bat comes along, he could be a real steal if it does.

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I am fully expecting 0.5 runs saved per game until proven otherwise!

Realistically though, he's a 3.5-4 tool player in theory? Arm strength, defense, speed seem legit and it seems like the minors put his power as at least half a tool if not a full point with the contact portion still in question. I know I am the high guy on Cook for the site if not the whole country but I really see a solid to above average big leaguer in there

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Why not in the world? Don't sell yourself short.

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He also was averaging 27 OAA in the outfield over 162 games lol. His homerun to park expectation was higher than the 3 he hit in 15 parks, while only lower in 4, PNC being 1 of the 4.

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I hope you're right about these two but I'll believe it when I see it.

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I get the sentiment. They haven’t had a lot of luck with these multi-positional MI types like Yorke. They end up stuck in no man’s land with a lot of these guys (Marcano, Park, Castillo, etc) as the defense isn’t good enough to play the premium defensive positions, and the bat isn’t good enough to offset that. Maybe Yorke finally changes that dynamic.

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Well said. Perfect summary.

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Great point BF. They consistently screw with these players by not providing stability in role. For a young player it’s repetitive training, he’ll to learning any skill, that leads to success.

These two are perfect examples as both have shown legit On base ability, legitimate bat to ball ability, and potential defensive ability.

There is no Santander signing and god help us avoid the aaaaa veteran signing that BC makes ie Michael Taylor type that takes the regular reps away from the talent acquired.

Best case scenario IMO and this may ruffle some feathers but I would play Cook as the every day LF and Yorke as the everyday RF - period.

Ok well what about Reynolds? He becomes the rotational OF/ every day DH- which leaves Cutch unsigned. Time to move on.

I still like Bae as the official 4th OF/ utility guy as he also can play the IF positions.

Same goes for Horwitz by the by. Shelton needs to stop with the musical chairs and provide a stable spot for development.

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Relegating Reynolds to substitute outfielder and not a regular at first is a wild take to me. So is not resigning Cutch for the expected ~$5m as our fourth most productive hitter last year- we only had four guys above average so we really aren't in position to decide not to bring him back for the amount. Also, if you've ever watched Bae play this sport then I don't think you can realistically think this team has a shot in hell in going anywhere if he's on the 26 man.

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Someone mentioned how Cook has a high baseball iq. It seems Bae has a low baseball iq. Upside is a four letter word in most sports.

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I think Cook is an above average defender that can play first, second or outfield, but hasn't proved himself as a hitter. I think York will hit for sure, but is a below average fielder... especially at third.

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Regarding Yorke, Steamer has him with a .131 ISO this year, assuming that’s about the production you can expect it’s hard to see where the bat and fielding combines to provide ample value. So hopefully he develops a little more pop, or maybe he can turn into a right handed Horwitz, and be OBP machine.

My post was pretty much directed at Yorke, as Cook looks to be more of a niche guy, a Joe replacement? Hopefully.

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Regarding Steamer (and OT on Yorke/Cook), Steamer has Endy, Joey, Hank and Delay combining for 272 games and just over 1,200 PAs. Endy and Joey, in particular with 220 games and 900 AB. Seems like they're onboard with the whole C/DH/1B scenario.

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Yorke posted a .161 ISO against a .383 xwOBA just last year with above average exit velos. I don't know man...

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I'm guessing the .161 ISO would have been in our Top 5 with the Pirates, and the .383 xwOBA could have been even better than the ISO. Just for basics, the .938 OPS in 40 games at AAA Indy with 18 BB/33 K is more than enough to take a shot now. He's listed as a 2B, LF, CF. His glove may not be as good as NG's right now, but we're talking a 23 year old better bat/lesser glove in Yorke and a 26 year old better glove/lesser bat in NG. It's one of those decisions that give GM's gray hair early, but the Pirates have to take gambles to compete.

I doubt we traded for him to sit the bench or play in AAA.

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I think if he keeps the approach he had in Indy there's a good chance he'll hit in the majors. He might not hit a ton of homers, but he could be a doubles machine.

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I watched a lot of Indy games last year. Yorke looks like a real good hitter. (But so did Henry and Jack while I was watching)

Yorke was money. Henry crushed. Jack struck out 2000 times in a row then turned it on late. We need some of these kids to take in the bigs. Big Cook fan also.

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I'm all in on 110-ish wRC+.

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Totally fair to point that out, and you also have pedigree on your side as well, but steamer has him at 97 wRC+, .323 OBP and .131 ISO for this year. That combined with their history with guys like this, some skepticism is warranted IMO.

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zero argument there, brother.

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