NL Central taking an interesting direction in 2024, and beyond

Hayes and others will be Key to 2024

Photo Credit: WTM

On Monday, the 5th, it was reported that the Brewers were signing Jakob Junis. At first, I thought, “Well, there goes another name I’ve seen some fans call for,” but then my mind turned to, “You know, there seems to be a concerted effort in the NL Central to target left-handed starters specifically.” Which itself is funny, as for some reason, I thought he was left-handed, but he’s not. I still began looking into it.

We’ll start with the Pittsburgh Pirates first for the quick and easy. There’s Mitch Keller at the helm of the rotation, to which the Pirates added left-handers Marco Gonzales and Martin Perez. Rumors swirled of their interest in Sean Manaea and Shota Imanaga (who we’ll get to shortly).

Using Roster Resource on Fangraphs (as of 2/6/24), we can see that the Chicago Cubs currently have three left-handers slated for their rotation. 2023 breakout and 5th place in Cy Young voting starter Justin Steele, #7th prospect on Cubs top 30 as rated by Baseball America Jordan Wicks, and high-profiled off-season international signing Shota Imanaga.

Next, looking into our good friends in Milwaukee, they have two LHPs currently listed on Roster Resource in journeyman Wade Miley, then recent acquisition and Baseball America top 100 prospect DL Hall.

It doesn’t stop there as the Brewers also have Aaron Ashby, who has 139.0 IP to his name with a 4.47 career ERA and further promising career FIP of 3.95 and xFIP of 3.24. As well as backend of Baseball America’s top 100, left-hander Robert Gasser.

Moving to Ohio, the Cincinnati Reds only have one projected left-hander starter in former top 100 prospect Andrew Abbott, who put up a 3.87 ERA in his first 109.1 IP in 2023. Graham Ashcraft is worth mentioning, given his 250.2 career innings, he’s had reverse splits of a .865 OPS against RHH and .653 against LHH.

The Reds also have two other former top 100 arms, Nick Lodolo and Brandon Williamson, who’ve shown varying levels of success, with the former battling injuries thus far in his career. They may fight their way into the opening day rotation or be among top-depth options.

Last is the St. Louis Cardinals, who are more of an outlier. As it stands, Steven Matz is the only projected left-handed starter who had a bit of a bounce-back season in 2023, throwing 105.0 innings with a 3.86 ERA. From there, the Cardinals will have a handful of LHP in Triple-A — if not moved to the MLB bullpen — with Zack Thompson, Drew Rom, Matthew Liberatore, and Connor Thomas.

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This matters because the Pirates didn’t particularly hit LHP well in 2023, although they did have a record of 26-28 versus left-handed starters. They finished 25th in team wRC+ of 89. They were tied for 25th with the Colorado Rockies with a .701 OPS. This is an area where Oneil Cruz struggled in 2022, with a .837 OPS against RHP and .532 OPS against LHP.

Another expected key cog of the Pirates offense, Jack Suwinski, had a .856 OPS against RHP and .609 OPS against LHP. Bryan Reynolds didn’t have as significant splits, but he carried an OPS of .821 against RHP and .726 OPS against LHP.

The good news is that of hitters with at least 60 plate appearances, the Pirates had five hitters with a wRC+ above 100, ranging from 114 to 124: Liover Peguero (114), Jared Triolo (115), Ke’Bryan Hayes (120), Andrew McCutchen (120), and Connor Joe (124). They also added Edward Olivares, who would’ve led the group with a .857 OPS and 126 wRC+ against LHP.

This would’ve been another great reason to add Gary Sanchez, who had a .984 OPS and 162 wRC+ against LHP. The Pirates did end up signing a catcher, Yasmani Grandal. As a switch hitter, he doesn't have any glaring splits difference, but has held a slightly higher OPS against LHP (.792) as opposed to RHP (.767).

Roster Resource has the Brewers roster projected to have five LHHs, Cardinals four, Cubs three, Reds three, and Pirates matching Milwaukee with five. If the Pirates want to get a leg up, they’ll likely need to see much more success against left-handed starters.