Pirates' 2023 Minor League Recaps: Altoona Curve
A roster light on clear prospects
Altoona featured some of the Pirates’ highest-profile prospects at different times during 2023, but most of the time the roster was heavily laden with players who appear to have topped out at the AA level. Quite a few were repeating the level, including some who’ll be eligible for minor league free agency. The team’s final record was 67-68.
The hitters were the 12-team league’s third-oldest, a little less than a year older than the average. The Curve finished 8th in scoring, 11th in OBP and 10th in slugging. They drew the league’s fewest walks and also had the fewest strikeouts.
The pitchers were the league’s third-youngest, just a hair younger than average. (For some reason, there was little variance in the weighted average ages of the league’s pitching staffs.) The Curve were ninth in staff ERA, issued the sixth-most walks and struck out the fewest hitters, well below the league average K rate.
HITTERS
On to the Bigs
Henry Davis, ??: Davis can be looked up anywhere under “incoherent development strategy.” The Pirates sent him to Altoona, where he bludgeoned AA pitching for two months. The idea ostensibly was that he needed to be in Altoona so he could catch, as Endy Rodriguez was catching in Indianapolis. Davis then went to Indy and bludgeoned the pitchers there over 14 games, then came to Pittsbugh. All the while, the Pirates insisted Davis is a catcher, so in the majors he’s caught . . . two innings. Instead, he’s playing right, where he’s much less valuable.
Liover Peguero, SS: Peguero had a terrible spring, then went back to Altoona, where he played last year, and got off to a terrible start, both offensively and defensively. Then in May, and especially June (.969 OPS) a light bulb apparently went on. Peguero suddenly started playing, in all phases, like the guy the Pirates thought they were getting in the Starling Marte trade. After a week and a half in AAA, Peguero came up to the Pirates in mid-July. He won’t turn 23 until New Year’s Eve.
On to the 40-Man?
Tsung-Che Cheng, SS: The one Rule 5-eligible position player at Altoona to make any sort of case for a roster spot, Cheng actually made his case at Greensboro, where he had a huge first half. After a July promotion, Cheng got off to a 2-for-25 start, had a solid August (.725 OPS), then slumped to a .604 OPS in a dozen September games. Cheng held his own in AA and his K rates stayed about the same, but his walk rate and power both took a hit. He continued playing very reliable defense. Cheng just turned 22.
Hitting a Wall?
A lot of the Curve’s hitters — in fact, probably the majority of the lineup most of the time — are players who seem to have topped out in AA. It’s hard to see any of these players ultimately making a mark, at least in Pittsburgh. So here’s a quick rundown.
OF Connor Scott came in the Jacob Stallings trade. He had a mediocre season in AA last year. This year he put up a .578 OPS, although he missed over a third of the season due to injury. OF Matt Fraizer had a huge 2021 season that included a stint in AA, but after a .617 OPS at Altoona last year, he returned for a third try and managed only .683. OF Lolo Sanchez was eligible for minor league free agency last year and re-signed for 2023. He had a .652 OPS after .673 last year, and will be eligible for free agency again. 1B Jacob Gonzalez, a minor league Rule 5 acquisition, just reached AA this year after being drafted in 2017. He had a .644 OPS and is eligible for free agency. IF Andres Alvarez attracted some attention with a 20-20 year for Altoona last year, but he increasingly struggled after the early season and had just a .630 OPS this year.
1B Mason Martin is a slightly different story. He got demoted after struggling with Indianapolis last year. As he always has, he drew a lot of walks, hit home runs — 16 in about half a season for the Curve — and struck out a ton. He did put up an .834 OPS for the Curve, but he struggled again after a promotion to Indy. He’s still only 24, but he’ll be a free agent this fall. OF Chavez Young came from Toronto for Zach Thompson. He split his time between Altoona and Indy this year, putting up an OPS of .692 in AAA and just .597 in AA. He’ll also be a free agent this fall.
Trying to Make a Mark
Matt Gorski, OF: Gorski had a huge 2022 season, but the Pirates sent him back to Altoona and he got off to a bad start, with a .546 OPS in April. He recovered after that; not to his 2022 level, but he did have a 20-20 season. He had a 238/296/437 line for Altoona, then a .723 OPS in 14 game for Indy. Gorski didn’t have a terrible K rate this year — 113 Ks across the two levels in 457 PAs — but his walk rate was low and a .294 OBP isn’t adequate, even for an outfielder who, like Gorski, has plus speed and defensive ability. He’ll be 26 in December.
Carter Bins, C: Bins came in the Tyler Anderson trade back in 2021. He spent most of last year with Indy, hitting for some power but not for average. He was injured at the start of this year, then re-injured himself a few innings into his first rehab game. He finally got into 25 games for Altoona and had a .664 OPS. The Pirates are sending him to the Arizona Fall League. He’ll be in his second year of Rule 5 eligibility.
Joe Perez, 3B: A second-round pick of the Astros in 2017, it was odd that they released him in August. He’s generally been a solid, albeit not great, hitter in the minors, although he’s a bat-only guy. The Pirates signed him and he had a 1.100 OPS in 25 games for Altoona, then .775 in eight games for Indy. He’ll be a free agent this fall.
Mike Jarvis, IF: Jarvis is a middle infielder who looks to hit for power. He had ten home runs for Greensboro this year, but nine came at home. He doesn’t strike out a lot. He got into 28 games for Altoona with a .539 OPS.
Jackson Glenn, 3B: A fifth-round pick as a college senior in 2021, Glenn appeared to have some potential. He had a bad year in 2022 with Greensboro, but hit very well there early this year. He got into 54 games after moving up to Altoona and had a .772 OPS. He could turn into a depth guy, although he’ll be 26 in a few weeks.
Abrahan Gutierrez, C: As I mentioned in the Greensboro recap, Gutierrez has been a solid catcher who keeps getting blocked by more prominent prospects. After going on the IL twice for the Hoppers, he finally got to Altoona, only to go out for the season at the end of July. He got into 33 games and put up a .681 OPS with his usual strong plate discipline (16 BB, 16 K). Believe it or not, he’s eligible for free agency this fall.
Veteran Depth
Domingo Leyba, IF: Leyba signed a minor league deal for 2023. He was a ringer at the AA level, as he’s 55 games in the majors and 213 in AAA, where he has a career OPS of .850. He had a .903 OPS for Altoona and then .764 for Indy. He spent over two months on IL, otherwise it’s not improbably that he could have had a shot at appearing in Pittsburgh.
Dylan Shockley, C: Shockley appears wherever needed in the organization. He’s not going to hit much, but he’s very good behind the plate. For example, he threw out 40% of base stealers in 36 games for Altoona, which surprisingly was the most games anybody caught for the Curve this year.
PITCHERS
The Top Guys
Jared Jones, RHP: A recurring theme with the Pirates’ top pitching prospects has been improving command to go with outstanding stuff. That certainly includes Jones, whose fastball and slider get 60s from FanGraphs (and that was before his 2023 showing). A change . . . well . . . . Jones has never really been wild. His BB/9 was 4.6 at Bradenton in 2021 and hasn’t been above 3.7 since then. He dominated at Altoona, with a 2.23 ERA, .201 opponents’ average, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in ten starts. And he just turned 21 in August. More on his Indy tenure next time.
Anthony Solometo, LHP: Jones’ story is going to track Solometo’s: Dominance at a lower level, more of a challenge at a higher one. Solometo got hit harder than in the first half at Greensboro, his K rate was down a bit and his ERA increased to 4.35. His walk rate dropped to 2.4 BB/9, which is good because occasionally losing the strike zone has been a weakness. Solometo’s “struggles” mainly amounted to a rough month of August at the end of a season in which he more than doubled his innings total. And he’s still 20. He may have to open next year back at Altoona, but that’s hardly alarming.
Kyle Nicolas, RHP: Unlike Jones, Nicolas has been flat-out wild throughout his career, which tamps down the enthusiasm generated by K/9 figures usually well into double digits. His 2023 was a tale of three seasons: the first half as a starter for the Curve, followed by a stretch as a starter in AAA, then as a reliever in AAA. (Well, plus a late callup.) Even his time with the Curve was divided. In his first six starts, he had a 5.74 ERA (and that’s not included one very bad start in which the seven runs against him were all unearned) and 4.4 BB/9. In his next six, he had a 3.00 ERA and 3.3 BB/9. That got him to Indy, where we’ll pick up the story.
Braxton Ashcraft, RHP: After missing nearly all of 2020-22 due to the pandemic and Tommy John surgery, Ashcraft had quite a season. Pitching with a very low pitch count, he did well enough at Bradenton and Greensboro to make it to Altoona for eight (short) starts. He did his best pitching in AA, with 1.35 ERA, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9. His command and control were better than before the long layoff and his stuff was at least as good. He’s eligible for the Rule 5 draft.
Reliable Starters
Aaron Shortridge, RHP: The Pirates liked Shortridge a lot in the alternate camp during the pandemic, but Tommy John surgery cost him the 2021 season and half of 2022. He struggled in his (half) recovery season, then spent all of this season in the Altoona rotation. He had some very good stretches, like a five-game stretch in August with a 1.91 ERA and a nine-inning complete game. In his very next game, he was irresponsibly left in to give up 12 earned runs in 2.2 IP. That obviously did a number on his ERA, which finished at 5.01. The bottom line is that he’s a finesse guy without a standout pitch.
Sean Sullivan, RHP: Sullivan is similar to Shortridge and had a similar year, except instead of ups and downs throughout the year, he had two very bad months in June and July, and otherwise pitched well. In August and September, he went 6-0, 2.82, with a 1.14 WHIP. He finished with a 3.88 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He didn’t miss a lot of bats; in fact, his K/9 of 7.7 was exactly the same as Shortridge’s. Sullivan will be 23 in a few days, which makes him over three years younger than Shortridge.
Jackson Wolf, LHP: The Pirates picked Wolf up in the Hill/Choi trade and he started eight times for the Curve. Wolf sits at about 89 and has a change and a high-spin slider. He performed about the same with Altoona as he had in AA for the Padres. He had a 4.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. With the Curve, his K/9 dropped sharply from where it had typically been previously, to 7.5. He’s generally had modest trouble with gopher balls, as finesse guys often do; he gave up one every seven innings for the Curve. He had a big platoon split, suggesting middle relief may be the best long-term option.
Relievers Moving Up
Travis MacGregor, RHP: MacGregor has spent most of his career battling injuries. This year, he dominated in 16 games for the Curve, with a 1.83 ERA and very good peripherals. That got him a promotion to Indy, where things didn’t go nearly as well. He was eligible for minor league free agency last year and the Pirates re-signed him. That may not happen again this year and he didn’t do well enough to merit a 40-man roster spot.
Cameron Junker, RHP: Junker has moved up slowly, almost always pitching well but not dominating. He’s already 26 and isn’t ready for minor league free agency. He had a 3.25 ERA for the Curve this year, but with weak walk and K rates, 4.7 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9. He moved up to Indy at the very end of the season. It’s not hard to see him as a depth guy who could get called up at some point.
Noe Toribio, RHP: Last year, Toribio had a strong first half in AA, got promoted, and got torched at Indy. This year he stayed in AA all year until the very end of the season. He pitched well, with a 3.79 ERA and 10.7 K/9. His command has a tendency to go south on him at times. He’s eligible for free agency this fall.
Swing Men
Nick Dombkowski, LHP: Dombkowski’s been quite a success for a college NDFA. It took him the equivalent of less than a season to reach AA. For the Curve, he served in an opener/long relief role. He had a 3.71 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, but his K/9 was a very low 6.1 and he had a lot of gopher ball problems. He moved up to Indy at the end of the season.
Justin Meis, RHP: Meis was a starter in class A last year, then served in a swing role for Altoona this year. His performance was passable: 4.55 ERA, 1.46 WHIP. He had control problems, walking a little over five per nine innings.
Disappointing Bullpen Seasons
Tyler Samaniego, LHP: A year ago, Samaniego looked like he might be able to help the Pirates in 2023, as a lefty with a 93 mph fastball and an above-average slider. Instead, he stayed in AA all year and posted a 5.51 ERA. The Pirates reportedly believe he pitched much better than that and the analytics seem to agree. His xFIP was 3.93, but he was killed by a .392 BABIP and a low strand rate. He’s not even Rule 5 eligible yet, so he’s worth watching.
Tahnaj Thomas, RHP: Thomas has been disappointing for a while now. He’s lost several mph off his upper-90s fastball and his slider isn’t as effective, either. This year, he had a 4.87 ERA and more walks than strikeouts. He’ll be a free agent this fall.
Other Relievers
Altoona got a lot of roughly league-average innings from regular relievers. RHP Oliver Garcia had an ERA (4.27) exactly the league average, but he walked well over six per nine innings. The Pirates brought back former prospect LHP Braeden Ogle on a minor league deal and he put up a 4.91 ERA with a 7.6 BB/9. LHP Omar Cruz came in the Joe Musgrove trade. He spent most of the first two months this year in development purgatory, then had a 3.94 ERA with a 5.6 BB/9. RHP Juan Minaya, signed as a minor league free agent, split the season between Altoona and Indy. He had a 2.39 ERA for the Curve, then got bombed with Indy before going out for the season in early August. RHP Grant Ford missed much of the 2022 season with an injury. He got into a dozen games with the Curve late this year after pitching reasonably well for Greensboro. All of these pitchers except Ford will be free agents this fall.
Prospect graveyard, eesh.
What's up with the South Atlantic League? GBO is known for playing like a bandbox, but Cheng's the latest in a line of prospects who saw they're power production plummet in AA after putting up numbers home AND away in their previous stop.
Again , great analysis Wilbur!
And cool photos!!!