Pirates add interesting arm in Justin Lawrence
Former Rockies pitcher had more success on the road than at home
Even with spring training games underway, the Pittsburgh Pirates are still looking for ways to shore up their bullpen, claiming right-handed pitcher Justin Lawrence off waivers from the Colorado Rockies.
After closing 11 games for the Rockies in 2023, Lawrence had a rough 2024, posting a 6.49 ERA in 59.2 innings pitched while striking out just 45 batters (to 33 walks).
That was coming off a 2024 season in which he posted a 3.72 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 75 innings.
Lawrence immediately stands out for his ridiculously low arm slot (4.4 vertical release height) that produces an extreme east/west spread with his sinker (14.5” of horizontal run) and sweeper (14.2” of horizontal break).
The sinker was one of the worst pitches in baseball last year, producing a -21 Run Value on Baseball Savant. However, going by the shape on TJStats, it produced just below average at 97 on Stuff+.
On the other hand, the sweeper graded out really well on Stuff+ and just above-average on Savant but was the second best of its kind in 2023.
That kind of horizontal movement, coming from that arm angle, helped him produce a ground ball rate of over 50% last year, which would make any bounceback easier.
One thing to note is that the velocity on the sinker last year was the lowest it has been since he entered the majors. It averaged 97.4 mph when he debuted in 2021 and was down to 94.6 in 2024.
The Fit
Lawrence joins a growing bullpen that features David Bednar, Colin Holderman, and Dennis Santana, among others. He does give them another pitcher with closing experience, even if it's limited to one year.
With the struggles of Bednar last year, adding another guy that can handle, or has handled, the closer role is a bonus to potentially add to the bullpen.
Realistically, you are looking at maybe four players that are likely locks for the bullpen right now—Bednar, Holderman, Santana, and Caleb Ferguson,
There will be at least one other lefty to make the team—either Tim Mayza or Joey Wentz, the latter of which is out of options.
Carmen Mlodzinski and Kyle Nicolas are younger players with the upside to pitch in the majors, but also have options remaining. Mlodzinski is getting a chance to work as a starter in spring, but could factor in the bullpen as a multi-inning guy if that doesn’t work.
That leaves one spot for Lawrence, Chase Shugart, and Peter Strzelecki—all on the 40-man—and non-roster options like Tanner Rainey and Carson Fulmer.
Of the 40-man roster options, Lawrence could have the inside track due to his experience, but he will have to win out a spot through the rest of camp.
As a waiver claim, Lawrence has some upside for the Pirates working out the bullpen. He’s clearly been impacted by playing his home games at Coors Field, which alone has some promise by getting out of there.
OPS: .877 at Coors/.675 on the road
AVG: .320 at Coors/.224 on the road
If Lawrence can win a spot on the roster, that’d give the Pirates a different look for hitters to account for when they go to the bullpen.
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The most interesting thing about Lawrence is that he’s managed to be good at times while more often being bad on a biblical scale.
This is Cherington's Chad Bradford!
I'm guessing BC watched Moneyball 100+ times over the winter and is all in on flawed players that still have value.
I'm praying that he has the Jonah Hill character on staff.