Pirates See Starters Making Some Progress at Bradenton, Part 2

A closer look at some more pitchers making progress while playing for the Bradenton Marauders.

Alessandro Ercolani Photo Credit: WTM

Last go-round, I discussed two Bradenton starters who probably fall into the “finesse” category, at least at this time. In Alessandro Ercolani and Wilber Dotel, though, the Marauders have a couple starters who rely more on power.

Ercolani hails from the world’s fifth-smallest country, San Marino, population 33,000. That made him a longshot to begin with, but the odds are getting less lengthy. I’ll note at the start, though, that he’s currently on the seven-day injured list. It seems unlikely that he’s done for the year. The Pirates have been releasing players in a steady stream lately as they make room for newly drafted players. They could clear a spot by moving Ercolani to the full-season IL if he wasn’t expected to return. Hopefully, he just needs some down time, seeing as how his 65 innings this year are over 15 more than his first two seasons combined.

In his first year, in 2021, Ercolani pitched just a little in the Florida Complex League. Last year he took a regular turn in the rotation, albeit with strict workload limitations, and put up a 1.19 ERA and 11.6 K/9, with a high walk rate of 5.9 BB/9 being the biggest limitation.

Ercolani’s been a lot more erratic this year. He got off to a bad start, with opponents putting up an OPS against him of .930 in April and .890 in May. Then he had a big month in June, with a 2.14 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He had a tough time in July, possibly leading to the IL stay.

The velocity has been erratic, too, although the trend has been upward. Earlier in the year, a lot of the time Ercolani’s four-seamer was in the 92-93 mph range. In July, it mostly averaged 94-95 or higher, reaching 97. His main secondary pitches have been a low-80s slider and mid-80s cutter. Neither has a good spin rate nor misses a lot of bats. Ercolani’s strikeouts — his K/9 is 9.1 — tend to come from called strikes. According to StatCast, Ercolani also throws very small numbers of two-seamers, changeups and curves, but I’m skeptical whether he’s really throwing this many different pitches.

The path forward for Ercolani probably lies in relief, where he may be able to sustain, or even increase, the mid-90s velocity. He’s also going to need to improve at least one of his secondary pitches.

Wilber Dotel Photo Credit: WTM

Another mainstay in the Marauders’ rotation, and maybe the most promising at this point, is Wilber Dotel. A Dominican signing just after he turned 18 in 2020, he wasn’t a big bonus guy, but he was already reaching the mid-90s. Dotel went straight to the FCL for his first year, in 2021, and put up a 3.34 ERA. For whatever reason, the Pirates sent him back there in 2022 and he lowered the ERA to 2.62.

This year, Dotel had two very bad outings in April, then went on the IL until the end of May. Since June he’s stayed in the rotation, except for a few relief appearances. His numbers on the season are odd. The ERA (3.02) is good, but the WHIP (1.41), BB/9 (4.8) and especially the K/9 (6.8) aren’t. The explanation seems to lie in the fact that hitters can’t seem to drive the ball against him. Opponents have just a .299 slugging average against him, and a measly .064 ISO. It’s not that he’s an extreme groundball pitcher. If anything, he’s a flyball pitcher. My observational take is that he’s good at jamming hitters.

Dotel is primarily a fastball pitcher, throwing both a sinker and four-seamer. The former tends to average 92-93 mph, the latter 94-95. The velocity readings vary dramatically during games; both pitches tend to run from the upper-80s to the upper-90s. It seems more likely to me that there are some classification problems. StatCast has Dotel throwing four other pitches, although the slider is clearly his main secondary pitch. Again, I suspect there are some classification issues involved.

The erratic velocity can be a puzzle in individual games. I saw one Dotel outing a couple weeks ago in which he sat at 92-94 for two innings, then suddenly started throwing in the upper-90s, including four straight at 99. The next inning he was back to 92-94.

Dotel’s four-seamer and sinker don’t get a lot of swings and misses, obviously given the low K rate. The slider, like Ercolani’s, doesn’t have a good spin rate, but it does miss some bats, 43% over his last five outings as I write this.

So, as with Ercolani, the long-term path for Dotel might involve the bullpen, especially if he could keep his fastball in the upper-90s consistently. That might make his slider more effective. Of course, at age 20, it’s possible he’ll just add velocity.