Pitching value leaders for the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates
Who was the most valuable for the Pirates on the pitching side in 2024
While the offense struggled in 2024, the pitching staff—especially the rotation—had some solid moments this past season.
The bullpen, on the other hand, saw more struggles but did have a few names emerge towards the end of the season.
Here’s a look back at how the pitchers performed this season when it came to WAR, xFIP, and ERA(+).
Rotation (min 20 IP): 11.4 fWAR (15th), 4.08 xFIP (16th), 3.95 ERA (15)
Paul Skenes: 4.3 fWAR, 5.9 bWAR, 214 ERA+, 2.54 xFIP
Luis Ortiz: 1.0 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR, 133 ERA+, 4.59 xFIP
Jared Jones: 1.8 fWAR, 1.8 bWAR, 101 ERA+, 3.78 xFIP
Mitch Keller: 2.2 fWAR, 2.0 bWAR, 99 ERA+, 4.08 xFIP
Bailey Falter: 1.7 fWAR, 1.7 bWAR, 95 ERA+, 4.71 xFIP
Marco Gonzales: 0.2 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR, 93 ERA+, 4.80 xFIP
Martin Perez: 0.3 fWAR, -0.1 bWAR, 81 ERA+, 4.66 xFIP
Jake Woodford: 0.2 fWAR, -0.9 bWAR, 60 ERA+, 4.34 xFIP
Quinn Priester: 0.0 fWAR, -0.3 bWAR, 84 ERA+, 4.11 xFIP
Domingo German: -0.2 fWAR, -0.5 bWAR, 54 ERA+, 5.80 xFIP
Although the rotation finished in the middle of the pack when in most categories, it remained one of the strengths of the team, especially once Paul Skenes was promoted. He immediately established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game, and is a legitimate top of the rotation arm for the team to build off.
He wasn’t alone, as the Pirates got strong seasons from Jared Jones and Luis Ortiz. While things fell off the tracks during the second half, Mitch Keller put together another two win season.
The value that the Pirates have gotten out of Bailey Falter can’t go unmentioned. He was worth just under two wins on both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference while pitching 140 innings. Add in a little more on the value side when factoring in he was acquired for Rodolfo Catro, who has all of 32 plate appearances in the majors since the trade.
A Skenes, Jones, Ortiz, Keller, and Falter rotation is a great starting point going into next year, also taking into account that there will have some of their top prospects (Bubba Chandler, Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, and Thomas Harrington) vying for playing time and Johan Oviedo also returning from Tommy John.
Quinn Priester was traded for Nick Yorke, a much needed upper-level hitting prospect. While his underlying data has always been intriguing (5 IP, 4 H, ER, BB, 2 K in Red Sox debut), he just never seemed to be able to put things together.
There is a team option for Marco Gonzales to return next year, but with his recurring arm issues, and the growing depth, they could opt to move on from him.
You could make a strong case that the Pirates don’t need to make any moves here this offseason, but as the saying goes—you can never have enough pitching.
Bullpen (min 20 IP): 3.4 fWAR (18th), 4.38 xFIP (26th), 4.49 ERA (27th)
Colin Holderman: 0.2 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR, 133 ERA+, 4.42 xFIP
Carmen Mlodzinski: 0.4 fWAR, 0.8 bWAR, 125 ERA+, 4.18 xFIP
Aroldis Chapman: 1.1 fWAR, 0.4 bWAR, 111 ERA+, 3.14 xFIP
Kyle Nicolas: 0.1 fWAR, 0.2 bWAR, 106 ERA+, 4.49 xFIP
David Bednar: -0.2 fWAR, -0.9 bWAR, 73 ERA+, 4.87 xFIP
Hunter Stratton: 0.7 fWAR, 0.6 bWAR, 118 ERA+, 3.98 xFIP
Jalen Beeks: 0.3 fWAR, -0.1 bWAR, 109 ERA+, 4.73 xFIP
Ryder Ryan: 0.0 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR, 75 ERA+, 5.39 xFIP
Josh Fleming: 0.0 fWAR, 0.0 bWAR, 105 ERA+, 4.87 xFIP
Dennis Santana: 1.1 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR, 173 ERA+, 3.29 xFIP
The bullpen was a problem for the Pirates this year, finishing near the bottom in ERA and xFIP. Former All-Star closer David Bednar had a distarious season, which he finished with a negative WAR and a xFIP of nearly five.
Aroldis Chapman was the team’s big free agent signing, and he delivered down the stretch. Carmen Mlodzinski and Kyle Nicolas are former prospects in the system who took steps in establishing themselves in the bullpen.
Hunter Stratton was playing well up until his injury. He had multiple stints on the injured list but still managed to pitch in nearly 40 games in the majors.
Jalen Beeks was traded for minor leaguer Luis Peralta, and while some of the metrics weren’t horrible, he struggled to strand inherited runners. Peralta, on the other hand, pitched well in his time with the Rockies.
Not listed, Joey Wentz pitched well in his brief time in Pittsburgh and could factor into the picture next year since Ryan Borucki is a free agent and also struggled this season.
Perhaps the biggest surprise was Dennis Santana, who emerged as one of the better pitchers in the bullpen down the stretch.
The Pirates learned the hard way about how fickle the bullpen can be. They have some pieces to build off, but could be looking to add up quite a few arms this offseason.
Relying too much on previous success (Santana), especially when it was more of a popup can be dangerous, as we saw how far a former All-Star can fall.
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Hopefully next year we don’t have to turn to “contributors” like German and Woodford. The bullpen, I would not be surprised if not much is added and instead they will rely on bounce back, not just from bad performance but from injuries.
That bullpen is an absolute mess but hey I heard that Skones dude is pretty good