Pittsburgh Pirates 2025 Positional Group Recap: Pitchers
The clear strength of the team, one of the best staffs in the majors
The 2025 regular season is over, but before we start looking towards 2026, here’s one last recap of this past year. Over the next couple of days, we will be doing a positional group breakdown of the major league team.
Today, we will look at the Pitchers.
Thursday: Catchers
Friday: Infielders
Saturday: Outfielders
Sunday: Pitchers
The pitching staff was the team's clear strength, and it was one of the best in all of baseball. They led all of baseball with 19 shutouts, and were among the league leaders in fWAR (4th), FIP (3rd), and ERA (7th).
They also received the worst run support in all of baseball.
Rotation
fWAR - 13.9 (5th)
ERA - 3.71 (6th)
xFIP - 4.07 (14th)
FIP - 3.87 (6th)
The rotation was one of the best in all of baseball, headlined by Paul Skenes, who should end up with his first Cy Young in what was his second season in the majors.
They had 10 players make at least one start during the season, but remained relatively healthy. It’s even more impressive that the rotation was so good, considering they were missing Jared Jones, and 40% of the players who made starts were rookies.
Skenes was fantastic, although his run support left him with a 10-10 record. He posted a 1.97 ERA with 216 strikeouts over 187.2 innings pitched.
He and Mitch Keller were the only two pitchers to make over 30 starts for the Pirates. They were one of five tandems in all of baseball to make at least 32 starts for their respective teams (Philadelphia, Yankees, San Francisco, Arizona).
Keller had some struggles, once again, in the second half, but overall, he had a solid season, putting up a 4.19 ERA, 4.02 FIP, and 2.5 fWAR.
The next two with the most starts, Andrew Heaney and Bailey Falter, didn’t finish the season with the Pirates. Falter made 22 starts before being traded to the Royals. He had a 3.73 (4.91 FIP) ERA in those outings.
Of the rookies, Mike Burrows pitched the most, making 19 starts, and pitching some more out of the bullpen. As a starter, he put up a fWAR of 1.3, an ERA of 4.15, and a 3.95 FIP.
After initially debuting in the bullpen, Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler made the transition to the rotation, and both pitched well. Chandler had one rough outing that ballooned his ERA, but still put up a 1.0 fWAR and 1.48 FIP in four starts.
Ashcraft made eight starts and had a fWAR of over one (1.1), with a 2.16 ERA and 2.42 FIP.
Johan Oviedo didn’t pitch at all in 2024, but returned this year and posted a 3.57 ERA in 40.1 innings pitched across nine starts. Carmen Mlodzinski began the year in the rotation, was sent to the minors, and returned as a bulk reliever. He made a few spot starts later on, and while the ERA wasn’t pretty (4.99), he was still a one-fWAR player as a starter (0.7).
Of the 10 pitchers to make at least one start, Thomas Harrington was the only player to finish with a negative fWAR. He allowed six earned runs in four innings pitched during his only start, which was also his major league debut. He made two more appearances out of the bullpen.
Bullpen
fWAR - 5.1 (9th)
ERA - 3.83 (13th)
xFIP - 4.23 (22nd)
FIP - 3.78 (7th)
The bullpen was also strong, although it did lose its best player at the trade deadline. After sending David Bednar to the Yankees, they struggled a bit at first but were able to finish strong.
With Bednar gone, Dennis Santana led the Pirates’ relievers and finished right behind Bednar in both fWAR (1.2 to 1.3) and saves (16 to 17). Santana also pitched in 70 games, leading the team.
Mlodzinski moved to the bullpen as a bulk reliever and posted much better numbers. In 50.1 innings as a reliever, he posted a 2.15 ERA with a 2.64 FIP and a 1.0 fWAR.
One of the bigger surprises for the Pirates, Isaac Mattson, posted a 2.45 ERA in nearly 50 innings pitched, getting some key outs along the way. He pitched in 44 games for the Pirates.
Kyle Nicolas continued his volatile ways, with impressive stuff but lacking control, leading to a 4.74 ERA. Colin Holderman continued to struggle and finished the year with an ERA over seven while also being shipped to Indianapolis.
After missing all of the 2024 season, Dauri Moreta returned and posted a 3.24 ERA in 16.2 innings pitched.
In total, the Pirates had 10 relievers make at least 20 appearances.
Ashcraft, Burrows, and Chandler all made appearances out of the bullpen, but mainly to help manage innings later in the season.
Future Outlook: The Pirates flexed their pitching depth in 2025, and they are all set to return in 2026, along with Jared Jones. That could open the door for a trade to address the hitting woes, but even if they move an arm, they will remain one of the deepest teams when it comes to young pitching.
Hunter Barco made two appearances out of the bullpen and could be an option in the rotation to start the year.
One of them could end up in the Luis Ortiz-type role that he excelled so well in.
The Pirates entered the season with four relievers in their bullpen, but finished it with just two—Evan Sisk and Barco. The latter of which wouldn’t even count, as he’s still looked at as a starter long-term.
The bullpen will need some help through free agency, especially to address the later innings.
Brandan Bidois was fantastic in 2025 and is Rule 5 eligible this offseason. He could fill a role for a low cost in 2026. Sanatana should return to close, but there will be a lot of questions after him.
Wilber Dotel and Antwone Kelly are two of their next crop of pitching prospects who have the chance to push the issue at some point in 2026.
The pitching is very much looking like the team’s strength once again, even if they decide to move someone to add a bat.
From the xFIPs being a lot higher than the ERAs, I wonder whether Marin being fired reflected concern that the staff might regress without a change in approach. Somewhere or other there was a comment about too much pitching to contact. Supposedly, xFIP is more predictive than ERA.
The disparity mainly resulted among the starters from Skenes and Falter, among the relievers from Santana, Mattson and Shugart. I don’t think much about Skenes because I figure he’ll just throw whatever he needs to throw whenever he needs to throw it.
I’m still furious about the Falter trade. Poverty mentality. Perfectly good lefty starter due to make Arb1 money and they trade him for nothing, so that… Burrows and Ashcraft could make starts instead.