Bucs on Deck: Non top 25 player who will breakout in 2024

Photo Credit: WTM

Last year, Braxton Ashcraft came seemingly out of nowhere to fly up the prospect charts, where many sites have him in the top 10 for the Pirates.

There was pedigree, being a former second pick, but coming off of Tommy John and not pitching in a year and a half, it was hard to gauge his expectations.

The Pirates have quite a few candidates who didn’t make our top 25 list but could easily play their way into it at some point this season, we each discussed a player we thought would.

Murphy: Shalin Polanco

This may be a bit of a cop-out, as Polanco was on our ‘just missed out’ list, but all the tools are there for the outfielder to make a big step forward in 2024.

Outside of the injury, there was only one thing that kept him from doing that last year - better swing decisions.

That’s a pretty big deal, but after a horrid start to the season (36.4 K%, 81 wRC+), he improved on both of those numbers over the next few months leading up to the injury.

There’s a lot to like from Polanco’s game, he stole 17 bases in 70 games, as well as hit 12 home runs. He posted fairly strong exit velocity numbers, considering his age and the level he played at.

He also played very strong defensively in center field.

It’s really a matter of improving his horrible 37.9% chase rate, which that number alone is enough that I don’t blame people for being scared away. If that improves, and it seems reasonable for a young player to learn to make smarter choices as he gets older, he could rise quickly through the rankings.

WTM: Jhonny Severino

At the 2023 trade deadline, arguably the two most interesting players the Pirates picked up were low-level lottery tickets:  Estuar Suero, who came from the Padres in the trade involving Rich Hill and Ji-Man Choi, and Jhonny Severino, who arrived in the Carlos Santana trade with the Brewers.  

Since the season ended, the very limited attention the two have drawn from prospect evaluators has gone to Suero, but at the time of the trades, Severino appeared to be more highly regarded.  

If you want to go by bonus — which at this stage is about as good an indicator as anything — Severino got $1.23M and Suero $325K. The main difference between the two is that Severino has power now, while with Suero, it’s mostly projection. Severino was listed as a shortstop but played third in his brief appearance with the FCL Pirates.  

Some scouts seem to think he doesn’t have the mobility for the infield and will end up in right. He does have a strong arm.

Severino did reasonably well in the DSL in 2022, then started hitting for good power in the FCL for the Brewers before the trade. He also had a reasonable strikeout rate, ten in 52 plate appearances, although he also walked only once.  

He got hurt after a dozen games. Following the trade, Severino got into three games with the Pirates, going 3-for-10 with a home run, one walk, and one strikeout. He didn’t struggle to make contact. And then he got hurt again and missed the rest of the season. He had a total of five long balls in the combined 15 games.

So, the data available on Severino is very limited. He does have power and didn’t turn 19 until after the 2023 season. He’s a rarity in the Pirates’ system, a guy who doesn’t take a lot of pitches but generally (so far) makes contact.  

They haven’t done well at all with their usual model of very high walk and strikeout rates, so maybe a different profile will turn out better. Given how little he played in 2023, it’s hard to say whether Severino will open 2024 with Bradenton.

NolaJeffy: Wilber Dotel

I was between three players for this: Alessandro Ercolani, Wilber Dotel, and Charles McAdoo. I thought I’d go Dotel because the other two have been spoken about in some capacity.

Wilber had an interesting year in that if you just looked at his box score stats, nothing would jump off the page. He threw 78.2 innings with a 3.09 ERA in the Florida State League, striking out only 58 to 44 walks and 9 hit batters. In quite a few games I watched last season, he’d looked dominant in the first couple of innings but tired out as the game went on, and his control would drastically slip.

Prospects Live has Dotel listed with six pitches: four-seam, sinker, slider, curveball, cutter, and changeup. Then there are 92 unlisted pitches, so seven pitches? The thing is that Anthony and I would be looking at the Statcast tracker while Dotel pitched, marveling at the movement on his slider and fastball, but notice that Statcast itself wasn’t sure what he was throwing.

The cutter and slider, as they’re listed, were easily his two best pitches. The slider had an average velocity of 83.3 MPH, a swinging strike rate of 17.2%, and a whiff percentage of 40.4%. The cutter came in a little harder, with an average velocity of 86.6 MPH, a swinging strike rate of 23.1%, and a whiff percentage of 41.4%. Of the fastballs, his four-seam averaged 94.3 MPH and sinker 93.4%. Four-seam had a vertical approach angle of -4.7 VAA and sinker -5.3 VAA. Obviously we’d want to see the four-seam closer to -4.0, but the sinker has a flatter approach angle, mimicking that of a two-seam.

Having listed these numbers, the kicker is returning to the previously mentioned part about his stamina. His fastballs were much flatter earlier in the games when he was pumping high heat, if I recall correctly he hit 99 MPH once, and had vertical breaks (not induced vertical break, or IVB) that were around 10-12 inches. As the game continued, he’d be around 15 inches of vertical break. This is actually similar to how Ercolani’s fastball would see a decrease in velocity and shape as the game wore on.

Dotel is currently 21 and won’t turn 22 until September. I could see him beginning once again in Bradenton or making the jump to Greensboro. Wherever he begins, if he shows improved stamina, and with it the ability to maintain his control/command and pitch shape throughout longer outings, I believe Dotel will be another arm that begins entering conversations as someone to keep an eye. Outside of the BoD squad telling you to keep an eye on him. I actually mentioned him while speaking with 412 Double Play Podcast during their 11-20 rankings, the week following Murphy joining the show for 21-30.