Roundtable: Top 25 player who will break out in 2024

Who could find themselves make a jump in our top 25?

Photo Credit: WTM

Every team has a few players that, under the right circumstances, take their game to a whole new level.

The Pirates are no exception, and a few names could take a big step forward if the right things fall into place.

Today, we each picked a player in our top 25 that could ‘break out’ in 2024.

Murphy: Owen Kellington

The lesser-known of the prep pitchers that the Pirates signed to over-slot deals back in the 2021 draft, Kellington pitched for the Bradenton Marauders last year and showed several flashes, especially down the stretch, that could allow him to finish 2024 much closer to his fellow ‘classmates.’

While he struggled with some control issues last year, it improved down the stretch. He posted a 16% walk rate in the first half of the season, with a 12.9% rate from July through the rest of the year.

It's still not an ideal number, but he also saw a dip in his FIP and the opponent’s batting average over the second half while not sacrificing the swing and miss (strikeout rate ticked up to 26.4% from 26%).

The key for Kellington will be control and adding a tick or two on the fastball velocity. He averaged right at 90 mph with his four-seam fastball, but the shape and approach angle are well above average/average, which let the pitch play up much better than what the velocity would indicate.

He posted a 26% whiff rate with the four-seam last year barely averaging 90 mph with it, that number could trend even further up with more velocity.

Lonnie White Jr. was another option for me, as I believe he has top-100 upside due to his overall toolset, but he struggled against spin and off-speed pitches in Single-A, so it will have to be seen how well he handles High-A first.

NolaJeffy: Lonnie White Jr.

Lonnie is obviously a relatively well-known name, but I think this is the year he really breaks out (provided he remains healthy for the majority of the season). This is somewhat similar to when I — among others — chose Jared Jones previously, saying I saw him as a breakout prospect in terms of finding his way onto national top 100 lists. I believe by the end of the year, possibly even mid-year with, that we’ll begin seeing his name pop up on top 100 lists.

The tools are all there, and he put them on display in 2023 after returning from injury. One of the biggest reasons I’m feeling confident in his ability was the stretch from August 1st through the end of the season with him.

In 28 games and 105 at-bats, Lonnie had a .286/.409/.581 slash to close out the year. That came with a wRC+ of 163, accumulating eleven doubles, a triple, six home runs, and 20 RBI in that span. He was also eight for eight in stolen bases.

He is a big, strong kid, and while there may be a possibility he has to a corner, as it stands, he looks capable of handling center while bringing the boom at the plate.

WTM: Yordany De Los Santos

The Pirates signed De Los Santos for $1.2M in 2022, which made him their top international signing in that class and one of the most expensive they’ve ever signed. He has good size and athleticism, and could stay at short or at least third, but the real feature is the bat.

He had a solid 2022 DSL season at age 17, with an OPS of .735, along with a good walk rate of 14% and a passable K rate of 19%. He had a big showing in the FCL in 2023, hitting 328/397/463 with just 11 strikeouts in 78 plate appearances.

A quick promotion to Bradenton didn’t produce the same results, as De Los Santos struggled badly with breaking and off-speed stuff. He had a .578 OPS, with strikeouts in half his ABs over 38 games.

FanGraphs’ writeup on De Los Santos a year ago may have been a bit too prophetic. He put up extremely impressive exit velocities and other batted ball data in the DSL but with more swing-and-miss than ideal. FG said it was the same pattern with Maikol Escotto and Rodolfo Nolasco, two other Pirate prospects (Escotto came in a trade) who had great batted ball indicators but ran into swing-and-miss problems once they got to full-season ball.

More recently, Tony Blanco, Jr., is following that pattern. As a bit of a digression, one problem that seems to plague the Pirates’ farm system is players with standout tracking data who don’t develop in other areas. On the pitching side, the team appears enamored of high spin rates but keeps finding pitchers who don’t have the velocity or command to benefit from it.

Anyway, it’s hardly guaranteed that De Los Santos will turn out like Escotto, who struck out a lot more in rookie ball than De Los Santos. (Nolasco didn’t strike out much in the DSL but struck out a good deal more than De Los Santos in the FCL.) 

He won’t turn 19 for another week or so, and he made both frequent and very hard contact in the FCL. With probably the most upside of any of the low-level position players, including Lonnie White returning to Bradenton at age 19 will be an important test for De Los Santos.