Scouting the Pirates system 2024: Best off-speed pitch

Looking at some of the best offspeed pitches in the Pirates' system

The ‘Best Tools’ series is a look throughout the Pittsburgh Pirates organization at who has the best tools in the system.

Personally, the offspeed is my favorite pitch in baseball. A good offspeed pitch can be just as deadly as any other offering in baseball. It can help a fastball play up and is a vital pitch for anyone trying to stick around in the rotation.

Over the past couple of years, the Pirates have had a good run of prospects to offer a strong offspeed pitch.

Here’s a look at some of the best ones in the system right now:

Bubba Chandler

In my books, Bubba Chandler has two of the best pitches in the system. The change-up could end up emerging as one of the best of its kind across all of minor league baseball.

The arm action doesn’t change, and he’s able to kill about 400 rpm of spin, as well as have an eight-mile-per-hour differential from the fastball.

That led to whiff and chase rates of 41.2% and 36.5%, respectively, in Triple-A while holding hitters to a .190 xwOBA. It’s a nasty pitch and one that I’m not even sure he has fully mastered just yet but is also way ahead of where you would expect someone with his ‘mound experience’ would have.

Thomas Harrington

He altered the grip to his change-up last offseason, and that’s allowed the change-up to play even better for Thomas Harrington. It graded out as a 106 on TJStats Stuff+, which was higher than Chandler’s, and got respectable chase (31%) and whiff rates (33%) with it.

Carlson Reed

The change-up is a pitch that Carlson Reed has been throwing since he was 12 years old, so it’s not much of a surprise he picked up a whiff rate of over 50% with it while with Bradenton this past year.

It’s a pitch that gets over 14” of horizontal break to it, and hitters posted a .214 xwOBA against it. There wasn’t available data in Greensboro, but he was even better once getting there, so it would be safe to assume the change-up played a big part in it.

Sean Sullivan

We haven’t gotten much data tracking for Sean Sullivan since he has gone pro, and while it was his fastball that originally stood out (more so for the command over stuff), his change-up has grown into his best pitch.

He’s not a big strikeout guy, but he can get some miss with the offspeed, as well as getting hitters to beat it into the dirt thanks to the differential in speed with the fastball.

NolaJeffy: Mike Burrows

I was very excited to see where Mike Burrows was upon returning to the pitching. What I didn’t expect was that he was going to have a nasty changeup in hand. Before his injury, Burrows was known mostly as a two-pitch pitcher, with his combo of fastball-curveball. Prior to his injury in 2022, he had been showcasing a new promising slider. Fast forward to 2024, his best-performing pitch has become his changeup. It was only 3.1 IP, but it graded out with a 143 Stuff+ on Fangraphs model or 113 Stuff+ on the TJ Stats model. That’s after registering a 107 Stuff+ with TJ Stats in 37.2 IP. It had a 50.9% whiff rate in Triple-A. He only threw 18 in his MLB debut, which had a .177 xBA, .191 xSLG, and .336 xwOBA. It’s going to be a weapon.

WTM picked Burrows’ change-up as the best-offspeed pitch in the system.

Players to Watch:

Carlos Jimenez has been long known to have one of the better-offspeed pitches in the system. It’s a pitch he can throw to both righties and lefties and still get misses with. As he transitioned to more of a reliever this season, he didn’t throw it as much, but it remains a weapon (45% whiff rate in Bradenton).

With his extension and release point, Zander Mueth has the chance to have three very interesting pitches, and the change-up might be the best of the bunch. The arm slot adds some extra fade to the pitch, and it tunnels well with the fastball.

Antwone Kelly had a 36% whiff rate with his change-up last year and held hitters to a .214 xwOBA. The fastball/change-up both feed off each other well but the offspeed is a big reason why he held lefties to a .203 average (compared to .273 for righties).

A 2024 draft pick, Levi Sterling has an advanced pitch for a prep pitcher, which is highlighted by his change-up, according to Baseball America. He likely start in the FCL next year, where we will get a better look at his pitch arsenal.

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