Summarizing the Results So Far from the Pirates' Recent Drafts

Which players still look like possible contributors?

Nov 07, 2024

Drafting is a game of attrition. After every draft, all the signed players seem like guys who could ultimately contribute to the big league team, but gradually the doubts arise about many of them.

The current front office has had five drafts now. What follows is a summary of which players from each still look like they could make a mark of some sort. This isn’t an attempt to analyze the drafting or strategies or anything, just a status report on who’s “still standing,” so to speak. Draft rounds are in parentheses.

2020

The Pirates had only six picks in the pandemic draft. Two of them have gone a long way toward establishing themselves as regulars in the majors. Nick Gonzales (1) was about average offensively for a second baseman (23rd of 44 in wRC+ among second basemen with 300+ PAs) and, according to Statcast, comfortably above average defensively. There’s also good reason to think he can improve the offense. And Jared Jones (2), despite some ups and downs, looks like a good, mid-rotation starter at worst.

Apart from those two, Carmen Mlodzinski (1S) appears established as a solid, middle-inning reliever. And two other pitchers from that draft, Nick Garcia (3) and Jack Hartman (4) pitched reasonably well in the mid-minors in 2024 and could still figure as depth relievers. Garcia went to the Rockies for Connor Joe and Hartman to the Rays for Ji-Man Choi.

Getting two regulars and a solid reliever out of any draft is a good return, all the more so when the draft was limited to six picks.

2021

This draft is much more problematic. The Pirates had the top overall pick and signed Henry Davis (1) well below the slot amount. They used the pool money on a bunch of over-slot prep players: Anthony Solometo (2), Lonnie White, Jr. (2S), Bubba Chandler (3), Owen Kellington (4), and Braylon Bishop (14). Davis, Solometo, White, and Bishop are all struggling badly, and Kellington has had Tommy John surgery. It all raises the specter of the disastrous Tony Sanchez draft back in 2009, except it’s worse because Sanchez was only the fourth overall pick.

Chandler by himself could go a way toward redeeming this draft. He’s currently one of the top few pitching prospects in all of baseball and has a ceiling nearly as high as that of a certain other guy.

Beyond Chandler, there isn’t much left as the team’s college draftees have shown very little. Sean Sullivan (8) was hampered by injuries in 2024 but could move up as a fifth-starter prospect or at least a depth guy. Lefty Tyler Samaniego missed much of 2024 with injuries but could figure as a depth reliever.

Given the expectations that come with drafting first overall, this draft is looking bad, potentially disastrous, depending on Chandler and on whether one or more of the struggling prospects turns things around.

2022

At this point, the 2022 draft is the high-variable one of the bunch. There are a lot of guys still with a good chance of reaching the majors for something more than a cup of coffee, but it’s hard to tell whether any of them can make an impact.

The biggest questions, of course, surround top pick Termarr Johnson (1). His bat—which is going to make or break him as a prospect—hasn’t quite been what scouts seemed to expect. He did, however, reach AA at age 20 and has extraordinary strike zone judgment, which isn’t an easy (or even possible) skill to develop.

At least three of the pitchers have shown the capability to become major league rotation regulars: college picks Thomas Harrington (1S) and Hunter Barco (2), and prep lefty Michael Kennedy (4), who signed for an over-slot bonus. None of the three has the ceiling of Jones, Chandler, or that other guy, but all have performed well and advanced quickly. Harrington has reached AAA, Barco AA in his first full season back from Tommy John, and Kennedy High A while still 19.

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The top college hitter in this draft, Jack Brannigan (3), hit 18 home runs in less than two-thirds of a season in High A in 2024 and also looks strong defensively on the left side of the infield. He was a little old for the level, though, and needs to overcome doubts about his contact ability, so he’s another guy with a lot of variability.

A number of the later-round college pitchers in this draft have shown some ability while still running into difficulties as they’ve moved up. Derek Diamond (6) and J.P. Massey (7) have looked good at times as starters, but they both had a pretty rough time at Greensboro this year. Lefties Cy Nielson (8) and Dominic Perachi (11) both pitched very well at Greensboro, Perachi some of the time as a starter, but both had a tough time at Altoona.

Finally, Nick Cimillo (16)—drafted as a catcher but now a 1B/DH—showed a big bat at the class A levels but ran into trouble in AA, although he improved late in the season.

So there are quite a few players from the 2022 draft still in the mix as prospects. The Pirates could easily get multiple major league regulars from it, as well as some depth-type players.

2023

This one’s easy: Any draft that includes a generational talent like Paul Skenes (1) is a success no matter what else happens. But there is more here.

Not so much on the hitting front. The Pirates took two college hitters, Mitch Jebb (2) and Garret Forrester (3), in the early rounds and neither has been impressive. Forrester left in the trade that brought back Bryan De La Cruz, which we can’t blame on him. One late-round hitter, Charles McAdoo (13), was impressive and went to the Jays for Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, after which both stopped hitting.

The team’s early-round, post-Skenes pitching prospects, though, are looking good so far. Zander Mueth (2S), an above-slot prep pick, has a very long way to go, especially in the control department, but he rates as one of the team’s top prospects. Carlson Reed (4), moving from the bullpen in college to the rotation as a pro, had a strong season for Bradenton and an outstanding stretch late in the season for Greensboro. Patrick Reilly (5) pitched well for Greensboro and also in AA for the Orioles after being traded for Billy Cook.

Two later-round college pitchers showed enough to become good sleepers. Khristian Curtis (12) displayed very good stuff for Bradenton but had command issues that may be a remnant of a botched Tommy John. Garrett McMillan (14) pitched well in relief for Bradenton, then was lights out for Greensboro late in the season, including several starts.

Finally, several relievers had good partial seasons in 2024 but struggled after being promoted. Lefty Jaden Woods (7) had some trouble at Altoona after moving up from Greensboro. Landon Tomkins (10) and lefty Magdiel Cotto (11) followed the same pattern in moving from Bradenton to Greensboro.

2024

Nearly nothing to report here yet. The Pirates did something different and went heavily for prep hitters early: Konnor Griffin (1), Wyatt Sanford (2), and Eddie Rynders (4) were all among the team’s first five picks, along with prep right-hander Levi Sterling (1S). None has debuted yet. Lefty Connor Wietgrefe (7) had a strong debut for Bradenton.

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