Sunday Thoughts: Jared Jones making the team is the right call, Long term look for Liover Peguero
Jared Jones earned a roster spot, despite being truly ready or not.
When the Pirates made it official that Jared Jones was competing for a rotation spot, they put themselves in a position to do something completely uncharacteristic of them as a franchise.
On paper, Jones had a fantastic Spring, not allowing an earned run in 16.1 innings pitched and striking out 15 batters in that span. He did struggle a bit with walks (eight total, 12.9%), but regardless, if Jones was truly competing for a rotation spot, it’s hard to say he doesn’t at least deserve a shot.
Having Jones make the roster isn’t as far out there as you would think. He’s been a workhorse in the minors the last two years, throwing 120+ innings in each of the 2022 and 2023 seasons. He’s also among the strikeout leaders in the minors since making his debut in 2021.
The Pirates have also been fairly aggressive with him from the outset, pitching him in Low-A as a teenager and promoting him to Triple-A after just 44.1 innings with Altoona.
Making the Opening Day roster right out of camp would be another example of their aggressive approach with him from day one.
The question is, how ready is he to pitch every fifth day at the highest level of baseball?
His stuff is unquestionable, and he put it on full display this Spring. From a pure stuff standpoint, he can pitch in the majors.
I’ve mentioned previously that Spring Training is the perfect setting for Jones to thrive in, especially early on.
He won’t pitch deep, so he can let loose with the fastball, which we saw when he hit 101 mph. He can get up there with the fastball, but he averaged 96 mph with Indianapolis last year.
We saw him struggle with his control in the game he pitched the longest, allowing four walks in five innings pitched on Saturday, although he impressively worked around them.
That won’t always be the case when facing actual major league lineups.
Outside of control, another thing to monitor in the majors would be how he distributes his pitches. Jones throws a fastball, slider, curveball, and change-up, but he leans into the first two.
Just looking at his Spring numbers (not including the game against the Atlanta Braves where there was no tracking), his overall breakdown has been - fastball (96), slider (76), curveball (9), change-up (4).
Last year, down the stretch, Jones put up some fantastic numbers but also leaned into the fastball/slider and did not use his secondaries much.
It worked in the Spring, as his slider picked up a whiff rate of 47.5% (19/40). He struggled a little more to miss bats with the fastball, getting just eight whiffs on 45 swings (17%).
So, if the fastball is getting put into play too much, or he’s not commanding it well, that leaves him with one pitch. No matter how good that one pitch is, we’ve seen what happens when guys get limited like that (Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras).
Even Spencer Strider, one of the best pitchers in the game since coming up, added to his two-pitch arsenal this year and has looked even more dominant this Spring.
That said, having Jones start the season with the Pirates is the right call.
The Pirates have leaned heavily into drafting a prep pitcher in the early rounds, and Jones was the first of them.
Seeing his progress and the fact that he came in as a non-roster player to grab an Opening Day roster spot is a massive win for the development team.
Will there be struggles?
Absolutely, I don’t think anyone would expect him to come in and not have any growing pains.
But at this point, there aren’t many reasons for the Pirates to not have him start in the majors. If he struggles too much, they could always send him to the minors to work on things (I’d imagine there’d be some sort of built-in ‘break’ anyway).
The Pirates have gone through the rebuild stage, and now that they are looking to take that next step towards competing, there may not be a better way to show the new mindset.
Jones may not be 100% major league ready, but he’s at the point where the only way to know for sure is to have him pitch there.
He has the stuff and the mentality to succeed, but you have to put him in the position to use both.
Liover Peguero getting optioned to Triple-A opened the door for Jared Triolo to be the everyday second baseman and Alika Williams to be the backup infielder.
Peguero had a solid Spring but also missed time due to an illness. He’s only played in nine games, only one of which came in the last week or so.
It may not be a long stop for him in Triple-A, as this can be a way to get him consistent at-bats to get ready.
There’s a difference between getting everyday at-bats to prepare for the season and development purposes.
I still believe Peguero has the most upside of any player competing for the second base job. If you want him to get some added at-bats, get into game shape, and work on a few things, that's fine.
At some point, it has to be better for the major league team to have Peguero and Triolo pushing each other for playing time. You can find ways to get them both in the lineup, but the added competition should make them better.
If Jones was a shortstop or an outfielder, I would think it worth holding on until June to preserve his seventh year of control but as a power pitcher I really don’t see any upside to that. Pitchers are like running backs, they rarely stay healthy into their second contract. How many of our top prospects have had injuries in AAA over the years? He is healthy NOW and pitching like a beast, bring him north, and let him do it here as long as he can.
In my opinion they need to put Jones on the roster. The only reason not to do so would be the risk of injury. If he struggles they can always send him back down. If he does well, then the team is more competitive because he's on it. Jones has been not only top 5 in the rotation competition but top 3.
By no means do I feel Jones is a finished product but the areas he needs to work on can be better evaluated at the major league level (command, 3rd pitch and sequence). Getting chases just off the plate in triple A isn't the same against big league hitters, he needs to fine tune his abilities against the better competition.
If they send him down, it is more of the FO pushing the competitive window further down the road. It would also indicate a flat out lie to the fans and potentially the player.