Sunday Thoughts: Rotation spot for Priester? What to do with Falter, Contreras and the outfield picture
How's the rotation setting up as Spring Training winds down, what to do with two players out of options, and how the outfield picture is getting shuffled.
It’s been a pretty busy weekend for the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have made a couple of interesting signings that could shake up certain positions and had some key performances from those competing for a rotation spot.
After some time to sit back and digest everything, I wanted to review what had happened.
Rotation spot Priester’s to lose
I talked about Quinn Priester briefly for my feature on Saturday, but after some more of the pitchers vying for a rotation spot has thrown this weekend, I wanted to touch more on it.
Technically speaking, there are two rotation spots open right now, but there should be one, and Priester should be included with Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzales, and Martin Perez.
You can cherry-pick his stats and drop off that grand slam and I think it’d be even more of a no-doubter.
If that’s his only hiccup, I think he’s in a good place.
This looks like a pitcher with much more confidence on the mound, who knows what he wants to do and how he wants to attack hitters.
Give him a rotation spot and let him figure things out.
What to do with Bailey Falter/Roansy Contreras
These players had a lot to lose going into camp, as without options, they couldn’t be sent to the minors unless they went through waivers first.
Neither has done much to land them a rotation spot, even if no one else has stood out.
Contreras, at least, has shown something that you might feel comfortable with going into the season and using him as a guy in the bullpen who comes in lower-leverage situations.
See if you can keep working out some of the control stuff.
The Pirates don’t have a Rule 5 pick on their roster this year, so you could almost use him as that until you decide on him.
Falter, on the other hand, I don’t even know if you could put him on the major league roster right now.
Statistics don’t hold the same rate in Spring, but regardless, they have been bad for Falter. In 12.1 innings pitched, he’s allowed 11 earned runs and 19 hits.
If you want to put a left-handed multi-inning guy in the bullpen, Josh Fleming is probably the better option.
New look outfield took shape quickly
After the Pirates signed Michael A. Taylor to a one-year deal, I wondered how they would use one of the best defensive center fielders in the game.
He’d be a natural platoon partner for Jack Suwinski, who has historically struggled against lefties.
They were both solid defensively last year, so a platoon would limit the potential boost they could get in the outfield by having them both out there.
Taylor had a solid offensive year last year, hitting a career-high 21 home runs, but his career wRC+ is 82, so history would say he probably won’t come close to that again.
So, maybe he isn’t an everyday player.
For now, it looks like a complete shuffle is forthcoming.
Jack Suwinski shifted over to left field on Saturday. It was a question of whether he’d be able to handle center field when he moved there, and he thoroughly answered with a resounding ‘yes.’
This adds more value to his glove, making the shift to left while also probably playing some center field now and again.
Bryan Reynolds shifted to right field, where he hasn’t played since 2019. Analytically, he hasn’t been the best defender, especially regarding his arm. So, it will be interesting to see how that transition works.
Taylor, on the other hand, has one of the better arms in the game, so he might be a more natural fit in right.
But given the spacious left-center field at PNC Park, putting two of the better defenders in the league there made too much sense.
The ‘he’s here for his defense’ line feels familiar (Austin Hedges), although it’s not the same.
He probably won’t be a great hitter last year, but he’s been at least a 1.5 WAR player or better in the previous three seasons.
He’ll bring some value to the table, and if he struggles, they can adjust the rotation accordingly.
What are the plans for Lauer/German?
The Pirates have recently added two veteran pitchers with track records of success on minor-league deals.
They’ll need time to stretch out and be major league-ready, but it will be interesting to see how Eric Lauer and Domingo German are used.
Both are back-of-the-rotation starters with far more of a track record than those competing for spots.
Does this make it less likely Jared Jones will make the Opening Day roster?
Effects on Priester?
I guess we will have to wait on those, but if the Pirates can’t find consistency at the back of the rotation, it won’t be because there was a lack of options.
Best guess?
I'm not usually a fan of these because I don’t like speaking on things without some facts because, frankly, who am I?
If I had to guess, though, Priester/Ortiz gets a spot, and the other goes to either Roansy or Falter, who have a given amount of starts to show anything until Lauer and/or German are ready to go.
There hasn’t been official word, and neither will be ready for Spring Training, but common sense dictates they won’t unless they show up and are way ahead of schedule.
That probably isn’t the ideal way of working things, but if they completely cut ties with Roansy/Falter at that point, they can at least say they gave them every opportunity and then some.
Jared Jones is the wildcard in all of this, but I can’t imagine the Pirates would sign players like Lauer and German (who has an option for 2025) and don’t plan on using them at some point in the majors.
That being said -
If the Pirates just decided to rip everything up and go with Priester and Jones at the back of the rotation, I would not be mad at that.
Jones will play a factor in the rotation at some point, and there is even a small case you can make, so he gives them an even better chance to win than anyone else fighting for a rotation spot.
He struggles? Send him back to the minors, you have Lauer and German building up anyways.
He’s good? Well, you have a really good starting pitcher for the next few years that is also cheap.
That’s better than gold in the ‘small market’ structure.
There are still some things I question about Jones and his readiness. Spring Training seems like a structure that he could feast on, short outings and all. In a dream scenario, he goes 5+ multiple times to see how he and his stuff react before making the decision.
That doesn’t seem like a luxury we will get though.
But he did well against many regulars wouldn'tof the best lineups in the NL.
That said, I wouldn’t say I like making opinion-based judgments, at least not without facts, and I want my writing to reflect that.
You can go almost anywhere and hear, ‘the Pirates should do this because of this, this, and this.’
I’ve always liked laying the facts out and letting you make the decision.
But the facts are starting to pile up in his favor.
Of all the vets they brought in, apart from Perez the best bets might be Lauer and German, assuming health and . . . uh . . . personality issues cooperate. But they’re on MiL deals, they arrived late, and other guys are out of options.
“Opening day rotation” this year may mean less than any time I can remember. I just think of it as Mitch + Whatever.
Its time to move past this archaic idea that right field is where you put your best arm. At pnc park, its where you put your worst outfielder because its a short porch, shortest throw. This isnt rocket science. Typically at pnc you want your best outfielder in left (like marte was) because of how huge it plays. Taylor and jack will likely not both be full timers (probably both play 2/3) and cutchs hopeful ability to play out there maybe once a week along with connor Joe gives plenty of days off for jack against lefties especially tough ones. Beyond that, taylor sitting 1-2 games against righties each week is also best for the club.