The Pirates and College Pitchers May Not Be a Good Match

Poor command has been a particular issue

J.P. Massey Photo Credit: WTM

Spending the last three years regularly attending Bradenton and FCL Pirate games has led to one particular focus for me: Checking the progress of the college pitchers the Pirates have drafted. That demographic has dominated their last two drafts and the performance they’ve gotten so far should, imo, be cause for concern. Especially now, with the bulk of the short-season minors eliminated, the quality of play at the lowest levels is way down, something Baseball America has written about on multiple occasions. College pitchers starting off at the rookie or low class A levels should have an edge because of the level of experience they possess, compared to the 18-21 year-olds they’re facing.

So here’s the tale of the tape for the Pirates’ 2023 pitching draftees, excluding Paul Skenes, who better be sui generis. The Pirates drafted 11 other college pitchers and one junior college pitcher, of which nine saw action in the Florida State League and/or the FCL. The results in 70 total innings:

ERA: 5.79
WHIP: 1.56
BB/9: 5.0
K/9: 9.5

The K rate was heavily driven by fifth rounder Patrick Reilly and seventh rounder Jaden Woods, who combined to fan 40 in 25 innings.

It’s early for these guys, obviously, but results that bad from a large group of pitchers aren’t the same thing as one guy struggling. And it’s not just that group. There’s also the 2022 draft. In that draft, the Pirates selected and signed 11 college pitchers and one from junior college. Seven of the 12 have reached Greensboro, while the rest haven’t gotten past Bradenton, not an impressive showing by itself. So here’s the tale of the tape so far in 787.1 IP:

ERA: 4.60
WHIP: 1.35
BB/9: 3.9
K/9: 9.1

So, that’s better, especially the walks. But only 40% of those innings came at Greensboro. The rest were at Bradenton and in the FCL. These were college pitchers still in class A, and the performance there wasn’t as good. At Greensboro their ERA was 4.74, higher than the league average of 4.45. In fact, it was a hair above the Hoppers’ team average of 4.72, and the team had a number of struggling pitchers who stalled out at the level.

What success the 2022 college pitchers had at Greensboro came mainly from Thomas Harrington and Joshua Loeschorn. Harrington was the 36th overall pick. He didn’t exactly dominate. He had a 3.87 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He had very good walk and K rates — 3.0 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 — but he had some gopher ball problems, with 11 in 88 innings. Six of those came at home, so it wasn’t just the ballpark. Loeschorn was a 20th round pick, and had a 4.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

Of the other college pitchers, Derek Diamond (6th round) had major gopher ball issues, one every four innings, that led to a 6.00 ERA. On a per-inning basis, he gave up only a little more at home than on the road. J.P. Massey (7) had a 4.65 ERA and ran into significant control problems (6.7 BB/9 vs. 7.5 K/9) that got him sent to the development list late in the season. Cy Nielson (8) had a 4.44 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Jaycob Deese (17) had 5.29 ERA along with gopher ball problems. Julian Bosnic had 6.35 ERA and walked nearly a batter an inning, with a BB/9 of 8.7.

So of a dozen pitchers, only arguably Harrington, a supplemental first rounder, has stepped forward to claim prospect status. The others are all, at best, scuffling. Of course, part of the point of drafting college pitchers is to get players who will be ready more quickly. The group should be showing more than this by now.