Weekly Mailbag: Marco Gonzales analytics, post Winter Meetings prediction, winter beverage tier list

Latest mailbag includes a look at Marco Gonzales and his pitch metrics, some predictions and winter beverage talk

Joesolo: Winter meetings have come and gone and as usual the Pirates did little to improve their chances of winning next year. Again, it seems the wallet is closed. How can this team improve without spending money to acquire talent, especially pitching and at first base?

To answer your question directly, they can’t. If they aren’t willing to invest anything, they cannot improve upon last year. But realistically speaking, it’s still early December, and there are still options.

I don’t see how this is all that they are going to do, we still have some teams that haven’t done anything at all.

The Winter Meetings get a lot of hype, but it’s not exactly a guarantee that something will happen. There will be moves, we have to wait things out, which I get stinks for some, but that’s how it is.

Zachary Sedor submitted the rest.

Can you do a dive into Marco Gonzales’ pitch values and advanced stuff? (I am not yet well-versed in this info to do it myself)

Just looking at 2023, his change-up was his best pitch in terms of Run-Value on Baseball Savant, at a +2, with his curveball being the only other positive pitch. The four-seam was pretty bad (-7), which fits pretty well with some of the other starting pitching options the Pirates have (Quinn Priester, Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz).

Historically, it’s been a good pitch for him (2020, it was a +13), so there is a chance for a rebound. The biggest takeaway from his Savant page is that hitters don’t barrel him up often, and he gets hitters to chase, but the whiff rate isn’t anything great.

In addition, what do you think of this move in a vacuum? If we add three more pitchers? If we add nothing?

The move for me depends on Gonzales’ health. There doesn’t appear to be too much concern over it right now. This is an absolute steal if he can give the Pirates 100-120 innings. For the salary they will be paying him, if he can hold a rotation spot until reinforcements arrive from the minors, that’s also a steal.

If they add three more, this is even better. I don’t think they will, and it could mean they may be eyeing a bullpen role for Gonzales. I’d imagine one more legitimate starter will be added, and maybe a reclamation guy, possibly even Velasquez again.

I would love a tier list of your favorite winter beverages (eggnog, hot chocolate, tea, hot apple cider, etc etc etc)?

For future reference, I love things like this. I like sneaking the non-baseball-related stuff into these. If you got them, ask them (don’t get weird).

Tier S - Hot Chocolate. It’s the best and probably not even a debate for me.

Tier 1 - Hot apple cider. This is a guess because I love apple cider but have never had it hot. So, I’m assuming I will like it.

Tier 2 - Eggnog. This is another guess: my stomach doesn’t digest dairy like it used to, but I used to love eggnog. Not at the same level as hot chocolate, but if it were available, I’d have no problem going to it.

Tier 3 - Anything with coffee in it. I’m not a coffee guy, period. I used to force myself to drink it because ‘that’s what people do,’ and I would rather just be tired.

Tier 4- Coquito. Puerto Rican eggnog. The only thing I like less than coffee is coconut. Pass.

Note: If we add rum to any drink, that changes a lot. Rum is in its own tier above S, though.

One prediction for our offseason after the Winter Meetings? The spicier the better!

My prediction, just based on that I don’t believe Ben Cherington would have joined the front office without some guarantee that there will be the ability to open the wallet, is that some free agent will be signed to a contract that will make most of the fanbase happy.

It won’t be Jordan Montgomery or one of the top-tier free agents, but someone will get signed for a decent contract. We may all end up disagreeing on it, but that would happen if they signed Montgomery, to be honest.

Either that or a trade will happen. Some of the common players fans like to dangle around as trade pieces aren’t nearly as valuable as they think, but the Pirates have pieces to move.

If the free agent route fails, they’ll move some players around to get where they need to be.