10 Observations: Bubba Chandler overthrowing? Alessandro Ercolani velocity, Wilber Dotel
Weekly look around the Pirates organization
Murphy 6/10: Kendrick Herrera had a four-hit day on Monday. More known for his bat, I’ve liked some of his ability to put the bat on the ball, even if the numbers weren’t supporting it. He’s also driving the ball a little more, with one of the hits topping 100 mph off the bat.
He’ll get a little more of a chance to shine with Wyatt Sanford in Bradenton.
Murphy 6/11: Konnor Griffin is feeling more and more like a cheat code. He handled Low-A well, leaving as one of the top performers in most major offensive categories, and now he has hit four doubles in his first two games with Greensboro.
I haven’t been doing this long, but he’s certainly starting to put himself in the ‘best hitting prospect I’ve covered’ category. (Note: I was basically asked this on NS9 before this article was posted, and I said the same thing.)
Murphy 6/11: It’s starting to feel like Bubba Chandler is starting to press, and has probably been doing so all season. Which, the walks are finally catching up to him. He doesn’t need to be throwing 101 to be successful with the fastball, and if he isn’t going to be throwing strikes, I’m not sure I want him to be throwing that hard.
I’m not sure of any actual changes, but he’s throwing the change-up a lot harder, and I feel like it’s losing effectiveness as he is. As of his start on Wednesday, he’s averaging three more ticks (threw one at 95 mph during his start). It’s spinning more, and he’s getting fewer misses with it compared to last year (33.7% miss rate compared to 41.2% last year in AAA). All this to get one more inch of horizontal fade.
Murphy 6/11: It’s been a rough season for Matt Ager, which is a little disappointing. He was someone I was high on going into the draft. Some of the metrics on his fastball are encouraging, but it’s just well below average velocity-wise. The slider still interests me enough that he may be able to make it work out of the bullpen, which he may be destined to do if he doesn’t have a Hunter Furtado-style velo bump at some point.
Murphy 6/11: I don’t like doing bold statements too often, but I feel like Wilber Dotel is approaching the ‘best development win’ for the Pirates. Bubba Chandler was a first-round talent who slid because of draft politics, Paul Skenes was Paul Skenes, and even Jared Jones was a second-round pick.
People talk about wanting an International win for the organization, and he might be the best chance at that in the system right now. It didn’t finish great, but the stuff is clearly there, and he’s pitching well in Double-A.
Murphy 6/12: Will Taylor has been on a little bit of a power surge lately, closing out in Bradenton and then continuing in Greensboro. The exit velocity numbers weren’t anything to write home about in Bradenton, but he was in the 90th percentile when it came to barrel rate. So, he is optimizing contact and barreling up a good amount of the pitches he gets ahold of.
There was a little more swing and miss than you’d want to see from someone who wasn’t going to hit for power, but if that starts to come around, you could stomach the miss a bit more.
Murphy 6/12: There’s a lot to pick at from JP Massey. It’s his third year in Greensboro. His ERA is over nine. He has as many walks as innings pitched.
There are times when you get this glimpse of someone who should be effective out of the bullpen. At 25, it’s probably too late, but we get a look at it every so often. Thursday was that night. Two shutout innings, striking out a pair. Missed some bats.
He hit the ground running in Bradenton a few years back and then hit a wall in Greensboro.
Nola 6/14: For probably close to two years now, the Altoona Curve just abruptly stopped showing pitch velos on their in-game box score. Randomly, about a week ago (Murphy can check me on this) (Murphy note: Checks out), it all of a sudden returned. With that, we got to watch Wilber Dotel pumping 99, and hitting 100 MPH. On Saturday, it was Alessandro Ercolani’s turn, whom we are always interested in seeing where his velocity is sitting. In the first inning, he was working 93-95, and got up to 96 MPH a few times. More importantly, as he got into the fourth inning and was eclipsing 70 pitches — finishing at 80 total pitches — he was still able to hit 95 mph. Earlier in the broadcast, the Curve’s announcer mentioned that it was a bit of a bump as he generally sat 91-92 during the season. Either way, it’s nice to see the 21-year-old settle in the mid-90s for a full start, as endurance in maintaining his velocity through an entire start is a key development box he needs to check in order to see a potential path forward as a future starter.
Then, just to note, the box score says three earned runs against. He’s learning on the job, but Mitch Jebb misplayed what should’ve been an inning-ending flyout in center field, leading to the first two earned runs. He didn’t get the best read off the bat and took an adventurous route running towards the wall for the ball.
Murphy 6/14: What an incredible start to the month for Edward Florentino, who is batting over .500 in June right now. His single on Saturday was 105 mph off the bat. It took him a bit to get things going, but he’s quickly figuring the Complex League out.
I don’t like to predict promotions, but you have to figure one is coming soon.
Murphy 6/14: Mike Burrows is such a great story. Watching him dominate with his change-up is even better, considering that at one point he was considered a two-pitch guy who was probably heading to the bullpen. He added a change-up and then later a slider, with the offspeed becoming the best pitch.
That was on full display Saturday, getting 10 whiffs with the pitch. The fastball is going to be a barely average pitch, but the fact that he pounded the strike zone with it, helped set up the change-up and even the other pitches
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Bonus — NolaJeffy 6/15: Konnor Griffin is really good. That is all.
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In a SSS, Griffin is walking more in high-A. My theory that he just found low-A pitching too yummy might even be true.
It’s annoying to me that in a year where most of us thought we would be in contention, if perhaps, on the edge, but in contention, most of my attention has turned to the minors yet again. There are some good things happening. Now if we just had a GM I trusted to pull it altogether.