Keller’s last two seasons had not finished great. He’s basically been a 2-3 starter for the 1st half and a bad 5th starter for the second with command and velocity loss. So maybe he too would benefit from a shorter workload.
With every pitcher working to maximize velocity and spin, and to increase his repertoire beyond the traditional three pitches, you have to wonder whether the typical workload “ceiling” inevitably has to drop. We may be moving toward a game where teams look to have 8-10 guys who throw 3-4 innings. I think we’re seeing signs of that with the Pirates right now.
I think we’re actually going to see some things this season that’ll provide some discussion of the general topic. Maybe not, but they’re in uncharted waters with a big surplus of starters and an underwhelming bullpen.
MLBTR had an article about the backup Catcher of the Giants being out with a herniated disc - and then what followed was a nice paragraph about Joey Bart and how successful he has been with the Pirates. Comments like that do not often happen to the Pirates so, pull it up and enjoy. I also think that our Catching tandem of Bart and Endy could be very good and become a center of leadership for this team.
Appreciate the comments on DJ Stewart. That first look on Saturday showed some Schwarber in his approach....we used to call that kind of guy 'a real meat chopper', but 'three true outcomes' seems appropriate too.
But hey, if he's a Schwarber, I could live with that.
Remarkable similarities. Both LH hitters with power and weak plate discipline. Neither dominated in the low minors, although Hall did better than Jones. Jones was better in AAA. He didn't get a shot in the majors until he was 28, unless you count 84 PAs at age 26. Hall got 142 PAs at 26 in 2022 and hit for a lot of power but didn't get on base. He played a little in 2023 but had thumb surgery. So at 29 now he hasn't had an extended chance.
So, in both cases, a power-only, lefty 1B whose contact issue scared off ML teams. Which makes sense if you've got Bryce Harper at 1B. If you're the Cherington Pirates and always have crap at 1B, it's not the worst profile to take a chance on.
Yeah, in essence adding a 6th starter takes away starts from 5 better pitchers. With Jones missing time last year due to his injury and if the 6th man is making his MLB debut (Chandler, Harrington, etc.), then it probably makes sense this year. Next year? That would seem to be another example of not fully taking advantage of winning the lottery with Skenes.
My only quibble with that is I'd say with this group it's only taking starts away from ONE better pitcher. There's barely room between Keller and whoever ends up as #6 on any given day.
I really think this is an observant point. The #2-6 are all pretty good and if managed well, you could get longer starts from each.
I also think that the six man rotation could be on the vanguard of something new and good. If you give a stable of elite arms basically a once a week start, they're gonna be fresh and strong.
Where the five inning starts of recent years put a lot of pressure on a bullpen that may or may not deliver, a six man rotation going six strong most days will have the effect of putting stronger arms on the bump more often.
Really interesting development.
_______________________________
“Ya know, someday these scientists are gonna invent something that will outsmart a rabbit.”
Doesn't the 6 man rotation mean one less reliever? going from 8 to 7. Therefore the starters need to pitch 12 or 13% longer for it to be a wash. I think?
So then why not an 8 man rotation? Skenes, Keller, Jones, Heaney, Oviedo, Falter, Chandler, and Burrows or 10 - add in Mlod and Fergie or Ashcraft and Harrison?
I swear this is getting ridiculous. Some pitchers are going to get hurt no matter how many innings they pitch. Pitchers that want to be dominant want to start more, not less. The fewer games the best pitchers start the more bored they get and the less impact they make on the team.
Pitcher careers with injuries and so forth factored in are crap shoots regarding length anyway. Besides, the Pirates only have these guys, if they're good, for 5 or 6 years at most. Stop babying everybody and pitch the best guys! According to Greg Brown (wink, wink), this year is different - it's all about winning! Ha! (Everybody in the room knew that Oviedo wasn't right his last couple starts in 2023. Just monitor the guys!)
I am for a 5 man rotation for starters and a 3 man rotation for long relievers when needed. Without looking up any numbers, it seems some of our guys (Jared Jones especially) are solid for 4 or 5 innings.
Top 3 of the Pirate Rotation, and possibly the best Top 3 we have had in many years? I can understand that stat - it makes a lot of sense. I think the 6 man could make sense for the first 30 or 40 games, but once it warms up, I would revert to a 5 man rotation for the rest of the year.
I have a ton of confidence in Keller and Skenes being elite. I'm afraid Jones set the bar so high from his first half last year, he might feel a little pressure. Second half he only had 1 win 31 innings and a 5.87 ERA..... but wouldn't it be great to get his first half 1.11 whip all year this year?
Cherington & Shelton are too dumb to run a 3-man rotation. It's obvious they don't care about winning...especially when I mapped it out for them to get 90 Ws.
Anthony…need to fix this one for you. Griffin didn’t slap the ball the other way for a hit, he smashed it to the tune of 99.7 exit velocity. Now he did pound it into the ground, but that ball was hit hard.
Anthony…got to fix this one for you. Griffin didn’t slap the ball the other way for a hit, he smashed it to the tune of 99.7 exit velocity. Now he did pound it into the ground, but that ball was hit hard.
BP against Bubba is like having to catch javelins during track practice.
fabulously put
Keller’s last two seasons had not finished great. He’s basically been a 2-3 starter for the 1st half and a bad 5th starter for the second with command and velocity loss. So maybe he too would benefit from a shorter workload.
Yeah, I'm getting this too. I think the six man rotation idea has a lot of possibilities.
Really interested to see that wash out.
With every pitcher working to maximize velocity and spin, and to increase his repertoire beyond the traditional three pitches, you have to wonder whether the typical workload “ceiling” inevitably has to drop. We may be moving toward a game where teams look to have 8-10 guys who throw 3-4 innings. I think we’re seeing signs of that with the Pirates right now.
I hope so.
WTM
THAT is a very qualified point. Well put... that's a feature article somewhere down the line...
-BB
I think we’re actually going to see some things this season that’ll provide some discussion of the general topic. Maybe not, but they’re in uncharted waters with a big surplus of starters and an underwhelming bullpen.
Not Skenes. Not Bubba.
I think what we could see is a relatively small number of pitchers around MLB who still look to go 7 or more. Skenes surely, maybe Bubba.
MLBTR had an article about the backup Catcher of the Giants being out with a herniated disc - and then what followed was a nice paragraph about Joey Bart and how successful he has been with the Pirates. Comments like that do not often happen to the Pirates so, pull it up and enjoy. I also think that our Catching tandem of Bart and Endy could be very good and become a center of leadership for this team.
Appreciate the comments on DJ Stewart. That first look on Saturday showed some Schwarber in his approach....we used to call that kind of guy 'a real meat chopper', but 'three true outcomes' seems appropriate too.
But hey, if he's a Schwarber, I could live with that.
Darick Hall feels pretty comfortably like my favorite spring training story.
I didn't give him much thought when he was acquired but he's got a pretty fun background to play on. Maybe the next GI Jones.
Music to my ears.
Remarkable similarities. Both LH hitters with power and weak plate discipline. Neither dominated in the low minors, although Hall did better than Jones. Jones was better in AAA. He didn't get a shot in the majors until he was 28, unless you count 84 PAs at age 26. Hall got 142 PAs at 26 in 2022 and hit for a lot of power but didn't get on base. He played a little in 2023 but had thumb surgery. So at 29 now he hasn't had an extended chance.
So, in both cases, a power-only, lefty 1B whose contact issue scared off ML teams. Which makes sense if you've got Bryce Harper at 1B. If you're the Cherington Pirates and always have crap at 1B, it's not the worst profile to take a chance on.
well said.
Maybe I'm too desperate for any departure at all from the usual washed-up or never-was veteran, but jeez, just try something different.
lol, you and me both brother.
6-man rotation?
Cue the Steve Carell “No! God No” meme.
Any plan which doesn’t include Skenes pitching every 5th day is a bad plan!
Yeah, in essence adding a 6th starter takes away starts from 5 better pitchers. With Jones missing time last year due to his injury and if the 6th man is making his MLB debut (Chandler, Harrington, etc.), then it probably makes sense this year. Next year? That would seem to be another example of not fully taking advantage of winning the lottery with Skenes.
My only quibble with that is I'd say with this group it's only taking starts away from ONE better pitcher. There's barely room between Keller and whoever ends up as #6 on any given day.
NMR
I really think this is an observant point. The #2-6 are all pretty good and if managed well, you could get longer starts from each.
I also think that the six man rotation could be on the vanguard of something new and good. If you give a stable of elite arms basically a once a week start, they're gonna be fresh and strong.
Where the five inning starts of recent years put a lot of pressure on a bullpen that may or may not deliver, a six man rotation going six strong most days will have the effect of putting stronger arms on the bump more often.
Really interesting development.
_______________________________
“Ya know, someday these scientists are gonna invent something that will outsmart a rabbit.”
-Wabbit
Doesn't the 6 man rotation mean one less reliever? going from 8 to 7. Therefore the starters need to pitch 12 or 13% longer for it to be a wash. I think?
Wondering if a six man rotation also serves the purpose of showcasing some of these guys to enhance their trade value.
I think it is more that our #6 is better than a reliever. I think you're gonna see deeper games from the rotation this season.
So then why not an 8 man rotation? Skenes, Keller, Jones, Heaney, Oviedo, Falter, Chandler, and Burrows or 10 - add in Mlod and Fergie or Ashcraft and Harrison?
I swear this is getting ridiculous. Some pitchers are going to get hurt no matter how many innings they pitch. Pitchers that want to be dominant want to start more, not less. The fewer games the best pitchers start the more bored they get and the less impact they make on the team.
Pitcher careers with injuries and so forth factored in are crap shoots regarding length anyway. Besides, the Pirates only have these guys, if they're good, for 5 or 6 years at most. Stop babying everybody and pitch the best guys! According to Greg Brown (wink, wink), this year is different - it's all about winning! Ha! (Everybody in the room knew that Oviedo wasn't right his last couple starts in 2023. Just monitor the guys!)
I am for a 5 man rotation for starters and a 3 man rotation for long relievers when needed. Without looking up any numbers, it seems some of our guys (Jared Jones especially) are solid for 4 or 5 innings.
I read a stat the other day...
When Skenes, Jones and Keller pitch they were on pace for 90+ wins.
Top 3 of the Pirate Rotation, and possibly the best Top 3 we have had in many years? I can understand that stat - it makes a lot of sense. I think the 6 man could make sense for the first 30 or 40 games, but once it warms up, I would revert to a 5 man rotation for the rest of the year.
I have a ton of confidence in Keller and Skenes being elite. I'm afraid Jones set the bar so high from his first half last year, he might feel a little pressure. Second half he only had 1 win 31 innings and a 5.87 ERA..... but wouldn't it be great to get his first half 1.11 whip all year this year?
so 3-man rotation? ;)
Cherington & Shelton are too dumb to run a 3-man rotation. It's obvious they don't care about winning...especially when I mapped it out for them to get 90 Ws.
Fucking cowards
Skenes, Keller, and Jones and pray for cyclones!
I am starting to buy into your idea of Skenes pitching in relief on his third day.
Such great information!!!! Anthony, you just continue to amaze us.
Anthony…need to fix this one for you. Griffin didn’t slap the ball the other way for a hit, he smashed it to the tune of 99.7 exit velocity. Now he did pound it into the ground, but that ball was hit hard.
When he hits one 120 mph the 99 going to seem like a slap the other way lol.
But yea, he hit that hard for where it went
You both are right. Griffin smashed it into the ground which is just a slap for him.
I am so adamant about this point I had to post twice! Haha
So the actual velocity was 199.4 . . . .
Anthony…got to fix this one for you. Griffin didn’t slap the ball the other way for a hit, he smashed it to the tune of 99.7 exit velocity. Now he did pound it into the ground, but that ball was hit hard.
I love this write up. Great details