10 Observations: First look at Complex pitchers, Henry Davis impact, Will Taylor

Weekly observations from around the Pirates' system.

Murphy 5/26: As I was putting together the numbers from last week, I noticed that Konnor Griffin went 5-24 (.208) against Clearwater. Throughout a long season, there will always be ups and downs, but I think this highlights why I wouldn’t mind seeing him walk more.

It might help some of the low weeks be a little less low if he’s still finding ways to get on base. He can still impact the game with his speed.

(Update: He walked seven times last week and stole seven bases. I think his aggressive approach will limit walks, but as long as he’s working counts that’ll be fine. More times on base, however, more opportunities to steal).

Murphy 5/26: Carlson Reed is working his way back from an injury, making his second rehab start, throwing three innings.

From what I can gather, he mixed all four pitches, but it was the four-seam that seemed different. The velocity is still in the low 90s, topping out around 93.9 mph. It was the shape that stood out.

When I talked to him in Greensboro last year, he mentioned splitting the fastball into two (four-seam and sinker) to help with a dead zone issues he was having. The four-seam pitch is currently showing less horizontal break, giving it more of a ‘cut’ action. One fastball had 16 inches of induced vertical break, with no horizontal break.

It’s something you see with pitchers that throw from a higher arm slot, which Reed has.

Anything to help the fastball miss more bats.

(Update: His average horizontal break was about four inches less than his time in Bradenton last year, so this checks out, to an extent. Neither graded (four-seam or sinker) out well.

Murphy 5/27: First chance to see Dariel Francia pitch. He had a couple of strong years in the Dominican and is Stateside at 18. It was just fastball/slider, but showed a pretty good feel for spin (at least compared to some of the other stuff I’ve seen this year).

The fastball was 90-94, and got up to 19 inches of induced vertical break. It was hard to make out the arm angle (WTM might be able to chime in), as the higher the arm slot, the more natural the carry the ball gets.

Murphy 5/27: Reinold Navarro has an explosive fastball, and was on Tuesday with his control. There was no data tracking the first two innings, but he recorded six whiffs—all with the fastball— on 17 pitches in the third.

The last pitch of the third was 94.6 mph with 24” IVB that generated a swing and miss.

He’ll need a third pitch to stay as a starter, but he has a potentially plus-plus fastball if he maintains the control

Murphy 5/27: The Pirates ate some of Martin Perez’s salary in his trade to the Padres so they could acquire Ronaldys Jimenez. Saw him for the first time on Tuesday. It did not go well.

He didn’t make it out of the first inning, walking four of the six batters he faced. It was a deadzoneish fastball (IVB/HB near identical) that was 91-96. Also threw a slider that he didn’t throw for many strikes (same case with the fastball, obviously).

Murphy 5/28: Man, there’s certainly a different feel to the lineup when Henry Davis is hitting, isn’t there? The contact rates have been leaps and bounds better than previous years, even if he isn’t barreling stuff up.

If this is the start of squaring up pitches and the contact rates, it’s likely breakout time.

Murphy 5/28: Every time I watch Thomas Harrington pitch, the more convinced I am that whatever shoulder injury he had to begin last year sapped some of the velocity he had.

He was never blowing baseballs past hitters, but in Bradenton/Greensboro, it wasn’t the 90/91/92 that we are seeing right now. The shape also seems to have taken a step back as well.

He’s always had the ‘back-of-the-rotation’ profile, but the fastball has seemed to take a step back, and the control isn’t as pinpoint as it once was.

WTM 5/30: As you probably recall, I’ve been pretty concerned about the control problems among the Pirates’ lower-level pitchers, especially in the FCL. Scatter-armed pitchers generally seem like a thing these days, especially at the lowest levels, so I looked back arbitrarily at the then-GCL in 2019. The league BB/9 was 4.2; the worst rate for any team was 5.5. In the 2025 FCL so far, the league BB/9 is 5.6. The Pirates’ staff is the worst by a huge margin, checking in at a ghastly 8.7. The league K rate has also increased, but not as much, from 8.8 K/9 to 9.7.

The missing link here is the connection between these numbers, and scouting and coaching trends. I’ve seen coverage on prospect sites about the increase in walks and strikeouts, just like in the majors, but I haven’t noticed anything about what, if anything, has changed about what teams are looking for. Maybe it’s all just assumed that this results from emphasis on hitters focusing on launch angles and waiting for pitches to drive, and on teams looking for pitchers with a lot of velocity and spin.

NolaJeffy 6/1: Will Taylor has been on a bit of a heater for half a month. He returned from injury on May 4th and had a bit of a shake-off-the-rust stretch with only two hits in fifteen at-bats. Since May 14th — including Sunday — Taylor is 22-for 56, with two home runs, a triple, six doubles, and 10 RBI. His trends are also showing a decrease in whiff percentage, along with an increase in zone contact. There may not exactly be a lot of future power in his bat, but the 2024 fifth round draft pick is showing enough progress that he’s close to being ready for High-A. He could insert himself into discussions for future OF talk with his combination of speed, defense, and improving hitting peripherals.

NolaJeffy 6/1: Not too dissimilar to the aforementioned Will Taylor, it was a rough beginning to the season for Pirates first base prospect Nick Cimillo. He was someone we at Bucs on Deck were very excited to see how his first full year in Altoona went. Heading into the series with the Portland Sea Dogs, Cimillo had only one homer on the season, and an OPS of .590 on the year. For comparison, the league average is .680 OPS for the Eastern League. Over the week, Cimillo went 7-for-21 including three home runs and 8 RBI. He jumped his OPS all the way up to .668 and just below league average. Hopefully this is the turn of his year, as he looked like someone with a strong eye at the plate and ability to make contact with authority. Something the Pirates haven’t had too much of at the first base position.