For me April has been a disaster for the Pirates in terms of hitting prospects. The guys I was planning to watch closely —- Polanco, Johnson, White, Nolasco —- havre either done nothing or gotten injured. I can’t believe White is injured again. Brannigan is regressing. Head and Siani are at the same level for the *third year in a row*.
Meanwhile the high ceiling Latin guys are all hanging out at Pirate City waiting for rookie ball to start, which is what no impact 19-year-old prospect has done ever.
One of the things I normally enjoy about the season is checking the minor league box scores each night. This has been so painful this year that I’ve stopped doing it.
I still check the MiL box scores but may begin to drop that. The hitters at every level have been disappointing save for Nick G. If the drafts had been pitcher-centric, but the haven't. The Pirates have wasted over $15M on failed hitting prospects. This indicts the organization as a whole.
I still hold a *little* blame on draft strategy; they’ve definitely been pitcher-centric and could have a guy like Jordan Lawler if they hadn’t cut a deal with Hank as opposed to burning their pool with Skenes as they did with their other 1.1 pick.
Probably rationalizing tho, it’s not great one way or another.
I liked the 'draft a college hitter in the first round and draft pitchers in later rounds' strategy. I've not quarlled with the players they picked and the rounds they picked them. Hank appeared to be a high floor hitter with a plus power grade. Nick G. appeared to be a 50 to 65 grade hitter with some power and tolerable defense. Tremarr J. was presented as a generational hitter -- a 70 grade hit tool. Even though I preferred Langford or Crews, Skenes appears to be a young Degrom. He's delivered on that promise so far.
I found the Pirates' draft strategy credible every draft of the Cherrington era. I do not compare the Pirates' picks with alternative players. I treat each draft as an individual event and each pick did the Pirates take the best possible player. Even Davis was a credible 1.1 pick, especially when he signed a below-slot contract that permitted the Pirates to generate a draft class rich in top shel prospects.
The problem is the organization's inability to turn hitting prospects into viable major league hitters.
At the begining of this season, I believed the Pirates were on the cusp of a long run of division title contenders. Right now, the Pirates can expect to have a strong rotation in a few years. Setting aside injury risks, a rotation composed of Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Keller, Solomento/Barco/Harrington w I understand be amongst the best in the majors. But this rotation won't win much if the Pirates two runs per game.
I’m sure every organization has an organizational philosophy on hitting. My issue with the Pirates is they are trying to pound square pegs into round circles.
For example, they draft Termarr Johnson and Mitch Jebb early on, who scouts said had great contact ability, and then Pirates development team try to turn them into TTO hitters. Why?
If they want hitters to be super selective and swing out of their shoes on pitches in their red zone, then draft players who have that skill set. Don’t draft a guy who is mentioned as a Wade Boggs type hitter, and ask him to be Dave Kingman. It’s lunacy.
Termarr Johnson would be the first player in history to show up looking differently against pro pitching than scouts predicted he would when facing high schoolers.
Jokes aside, can the internet player dev experts in the room explain what part of altering ones approach *away* from pulled fly balls indicates an intent *toward* three true outcomes?
Are any of you even aware that's exactly what Termarr has done this year?
BA has a piece up on “10 Statcast standouts” that includes Alfonzo. Short version is, his hitting #s are sharply improved across the board. And, yeah, he needs to move up soon. There’s nobody in his way at Greensboro.
“It’s very rare for a player to make gains in contact, power and launch angles all at the same time, and at such a large rate, which may indicate that Alfonzo knows how to get the most out of himself.”
They posted an article a while back breaking down different types of exit velocity types - percentile (90th and 78th) as well as max and average exit velocity. Was actually a good read, they graded out each metric and no matter which one you used, Alfonzo had a grade of 55 or better. One of them (78th percentile I believe) he came away with a 70 grade for.
Yea, the fact they aren't really playing Planchart more, and favoring Ross tells me they just need to get him to Greensboro. He can keep playing C/1B there and get things moving.
Yeah, Planchart has fallen behind a guy batting a Cherington-esque .111, so he doesn't seem to be on the prospect track now. Alfonzo meanwhile is having to share time with Forrester, which is OK, and Miknis, who's a bad hitter even by Cherington standards. Not an ideal deployment.
Plus Valdez and Eddy Rodriguez also getting time at first too. I'd rather cut into Sightler/Planchart/Ross' playing time than Forrester/Valdez/Rodriguez
Be interesting to see how long they keep the status quo. Almost certainly Davis will be replaced with Grandal, but do they dare demote Triolo or DFA Williams/Taylor/Olivares for Nick G or Bae?
Murph rained facts on my NickyG parade over the weekend enough to be skeptical he'll be an immediate savior but Triolo ain't exactly standing in his way right now.
I found the Statcast filter for minor leaguers. Something doesn’t smell right tho…NG has consistently over-performed his expected stats and by an extremely large margin.
First of all, you're the man for that link. Bookmarked.
I know next to nothing about this MiLB data; just speculating, but maybe the expected metrics are based on big league data instead of being tailored to level/league/park?
Basically then an actual wOBA consistently higher than expected could logically be explained by quality of competition?
That’s a reasonable assumption…assuming that’s the case, consistently outperforming your xwOBA would suggest that you need to be appropriately challenged. Sounds like promotion time 😂
For me April has been a disaster for the Pirates in terms of hitting prospects. The guys I was planning to watch closely —- Polanco, Johnson, White, Nolasco —- havre either done nothing or gotten injured. I can’t believe White is injured again. Brannigan is regressing. Head and Siani are at the same level for the *third year in a row*.
Meanwhile the high ceiling Latin guys are all hanging out at Pirate City waiting for rookie ball to start, which is what no impact 19-year-old prospect has done ever.
One of the things I normally enjoy about the season is checking the minor league box scores each night. This has been so painful this year that I’ve stopped doing it.
Hard to argue but maybe at least a ray of sun shining upon Siani? Haven’t seen anybody mention yet that he’s crushing it.
He is, but again this is his third year at Greensboro and he’s now 23. 23 in high A. That’s not a prospect.
I still check the MiL box scores but may begin to drop that. The hitters at every level have been disappointing save for Nick G. If the drafts had been pitcher-centric, but the haven't. The Pirates have wasted over $15M on failed hitting prospects. This indicts the organization as a whole.
I still hold a *little* blame on draft strategy; they’ve definitely been pitcher-centric and could have a guy like Jordan Lawler if they hadn’t cut a deal with Hank as opposed to burning their pool with Skenes as they did with their other 1.1 pick.
Probably rationalizing tho, it’s not great one way or another.
I liked the 'draft a college hitter in the first round and draft pitchers in later rounds' strategy. I've not quarlled with the players they picked and the rounds they picked them. Hank appeared to be a high floor hitter with a plus power grade. Nick G. appeared to be a 50 to 65 grade hitter with some power and tolerable defense. Tremarr J. was presented as a generational hitter -- a 70 grade hit tool. Even though I preferred Langford or Crews, Skenes appears to be a young Degrom. He's delivered on that promise so far.
I found the Pirates' draft strategy credible every draft of the Cherrington era. I do not compare the Pirates' picks with alternative players. I treat each draft as an individual event and each pick did the Pirates take the best possible player. Even Davis was a credible 1.1 pick, especially when he signed a below-slot contract that permitted the Pirates to generate a draft class rich in top shel prospects.
The problem is the organization's inability to turn hitting prospects into viable major league hitters.
At the begining of this season, I believed the Pirates were on the cusp of a long run of division title contenders. Right now, the Pirates can expect to have a strong rotation in a few years. Setting aside injury risks, a rotation composed of Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Keller, Solomento/Barco/Harrington w I understand be amongst the best in the majors. But this rotation won't win much if the Pirates two runs per game.
I'm not a happy camper at this moment.
We might all be self-immolating right now if they drafted Langford or Crews and they were performing as they are with the teams who did.
I’m sure every organization has an organizational philosophy on hitting. My issue with the Pirates is they are trying to pound square pegs into round circles.
For example, they draft Termarr Johnson and Mitch Jebb early on, who scouts said had great contact ability, and then Pirates development team try to turn them into TTO hitters. Why?
If they want hitters to be super selective and swing out of their shoes on pitches in their red zone, then draft players who have that skill set. Don’t draft a guy who is mentioned as a Wade Boggs type hitter, and ask him to be Dave Kingman. It’s lunacy.
Man did you nail it.
Termarr Johnson would be the first player in history to show up looking differently against pro pitching than scouts predicted he would when facing high schoolers.
Jokes aside, can the internet player dev experts in the room explain what part of altering ones approach *away* from pulled fly balls indicates an intent *toward* three true outcomes?
Are any of you even aware that's exactly what Termarr has done this year?
BA has a piece up on “10 Statcast standouts” that includes Alfonzo. Short version is, his hitting #s are sharply improved across the board. And, yeah, he needs to move up soon. There’s nobody in his way at Greensboro.
Good find
Here’s a direct quote from the BA Article
“It’s very rare for a player to make gains in contact, power and launch angles all at the same time, and at such a large rate, which may indicate that Alfonzo knows how to get the most out of himself.”
And he’s a big guy at 6’1” 235
Also he’s younger than most college players in the 2024 draft
They posted an article a while back breaking down different types of exit velocity types - percentile (90th and 78th) as well as max and average exit velocity. Was actually a good read, they graded out each metric and no matter which one you used, Alfonzo had a grade of 55 or better. One of them (78th percentile I believe) he came away with a 70 grade for.
Yea, the fact they aren't really playing Planchart more, and favoring Ross tells me they just need to get him to Greensboro. He can keep playing C/1B there and get things moving.
Yeah, Planchart has fallen behind a guy batting a Cherington-esque .111, so he doesn't seem to be on the prospect track now. Alfonzo meanwhile is having to share time with Forrester, which is OK, and Miknis, who's a bad hitter even by Cherington standards. Not an ideal deployment.
Plus Valdez and Eddy Rodriguez also getting time at first too. I'd rather cut into Sightler/Planchart/Ross' playing time than Forrester/Valdez/Rodriguez
Badly need some of these guys in the minors to pick it up to make up for the frustrating offensive production at the big league level
Be interesting to see how long they keep the status quo. Almost certainly Davis will be replaced with Grandal, but do they dare demote Triolo or DFA Williams/Taylor/Olivares for Nick G or Bae?
Not holding my breath.
Murph rained facts on my NickyG parade over the weekend enough to be skeptical he'll be an immediate savior but Triolo ain't exactly standing in his way right now.
I found the Statcast filter for minor leaguers. Something doesn’t smell right tho…NG has consistently over-performed his expected stats and by an extremely large margin.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast-search-minors?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=693304&hfFlag=&hfLevel=AAA%7C&metric_1=&hfTeamAffiliate=&hfOpponentAffiliate=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_tracked_pitch=on&chk_stats_ba=on&chk_stats_xba=on&chk_stats_obp=on&chk_stats_xobp=on&chk_stats_slg=on&chk_stats_xslg=on&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on&chk_stats_barrels_total=on&chk_stats_swing_miss_percent=on&chk_stats_launch_speed=on&chk_stats_hyper_speed=on&chk_stats_launch_angle=on&chk_stats_hardhit_percent=on&chk_stats_barrels_per_bbe_percent=on#results
First of all, you're the man for that link. Bookmarked.
I know next to nothing about this MiLB data; just speculating, but maybe the expected metrics are based on big league data instead of being tailored to level/league/park?
Basically then an actual wOBA consistently higher than expected could logically be explained by quality of competition?
That’s a reasonable assumption…assuming that’s the case, consistently outperforming your xwOBA would suggest that you need to be appropriately challenged. Sounds like promotion time 😂