Those of you who prematurely threw dirt on his career, need to send him a heartfelt letter of apology and thanks for being the best player on the Pirates this year.
If he even approaches that for a full year, he’s a 6 WAR guy or better. And it’s a counting stat, so him losing a month to injury cost him in WAR.
Getting him on the right routine, with days off and days at DH, will be critical. Which makes Triolo a key player. It’s a unique position to be in, where you can have MLB’s best defensive 3B DH and lose very little on D.
I think someone already mentioned hiring Treads to work with the pitchers in the off-season, it's probably a good idea. Jones needs at least a show me 3rd pitch if not a 4th. Priester has the talent and time to develop similar to Keller. Solometo and Harrington could add a tick or two to raise thier ceilings. Bubba now focused on pitching only and having the right mind set, who knows what they could unlock. Ro needs something as does Ortiz but the potential is there. Skenes might be able to find better shape to his fastball.
Keller should probably gather up the boys and do a little team building if the pirates don't want to. Some outside ideas with fresh eyes could do wonders.
If only there was a place that could teach command and control, I'm afraid that those are not so teachable other than repeating the delivery.
Ooo see this is the situation where I actually would *encourage* a guy like Jared Jones to be promoted.
The whole Roansy Conteras dog and pony show "reward" is stupid and clearly has led to zero benefit.
But Jones seems to have taken the John Baker laissez faire approach to development and dropped any pretense of developing a starter's repertoire in order to lean on his best two pitches for outs. If the Pirates are dropping their developmental responsibilities then he needs kicked in the teeth by big league competition to learn that his two-pitch approach won't fly.
Or it does and he's one of the rare combos that gets away with it and we're off and running with a long-term mid-rotation big leaguer starter. That would be better.
Thing is... that means putting Jones on the 40-man, which takes up a spot for the off-season maneuvering. He has only 3 years service time and is not rule 5 eligible so I don't see the advantage or using up a 40-man spot for him at this point.
Such an argument implies that their offseason roster management will be lazer-focused on optimizing the most competitive big league team they possibly can and no, I could not get through typing that sentence without busting out laughing.
Not saying you're theoretically incorrect but you way, wayyyyy over-thinking this.
The sad thing is there’s likely never gonna be a better time to push the chips all in on creating a contending roster. A young team that has shown the ability to compete with anyone, and very little guaranteed payroll on the books. Yet, only a fool would believe they will do what it takes to properly address their roster deficiencies this winter.
Josh Palacios is in his 3rd year of exposure to MLB and CSN is 4 years younger than him. CSN struggled at the MLB level, and could have sulked after being sent back to AAA. Instead, he finished the year with a slash of 280/366/473/839 OPS at AAA which included 28 doubles, 15 HR, 74 RBI, and 21 of 26 SB - 80.7% success rate. I think it's time to find out about him. BTW, the 15 HR shows the raw power which often was lost on balls driven into the ground at 66% in 2021 and 54% in 2022 (FG). I would think the number of HR's is an indicator of him getting even more lift in 2023 - anyone have that number?
Jared Jones needs to watch Spencer Strider starts until he can realize that even if he does not throw a 3rd or 4th pitch often, it still means a lot to be able to show those pitches. Another reflection would be Tyler Glasnow who we all knew could never succeed in MLB unless he developed that changeup as a 3rd pitch. I would hope Jones can find a useful 3rd pitch, but if he can locate two pitches well, he can win - Location, Location, Location!
It’s AAA, could be as simple as was told to refine those two offering, I could see dropping the CB, but why drop a change up if it’s an average or better pitch? Anyway, I wouldn’t put much stock to it.
He can probably perform OK now as a right-handed specialist out of the bullpen. Fastball/slider guys usually struggle against opposite-handed batters. Scouts have never thought much of his changeup, and it appears his efforts to develop a curveball have not produced much results. Both Keller and Priester have turned to cutters to get away from problems with changeups and to deal with lefties. Maybe Jones should try that too.
He is only 22. Probably not best to rush him up to the majors or try to limit him to a bullpen role. Scouts and observers think very highly of his fastball and slider. He has potential, and it is probably best to see what his ceiling is with another pitch or 2 in his arsenal. I think Anthony has changed my mind on Jones, and I now think another 1/2 season at least or even full season in AAA is in the best interest of Jones and the Pirates.
I have no doubt Murph can research and write this up over the offseason way better than I can by the ole eye test, but I've followed his AAA starts and one thing that's stood out is how much lower his FB and SL whiff rates are compared to Strider's.
So, if his pitches are less effective than Strider's and he has no other weapon, we can be pretty sure his performance will be lesser as well. How much that slides is the question smarter dudes than me need to answer.
I told my son before this season started, when he was drafting his fantasy team, that Strider would lead the league in Ks (which is an important fantasy stat, I guess, in his league), but to not get too attached to Strider, because he will probably fall off a cliff in next couple of years.
I can only hope that the Pirates do not trade Termarr, Harrington, and Solometo to acquire him as his velocity is dropping and slider is losing break. Not that any Pirates GM would ever trade away such talent for a 2-pitch starter.
5 WAR Hayes is coming!
Those of you who prematurely threw dirt on his career, need to send him a heartfelt letter of apology and thanks for being the best player on the Pirates this year.
Don’t sell him short.
Second half: 314/352/568
If he even approaches that for a full year, he’s a 6 WAR guy or better. And it’s a counting stat, so him losing a month to injury cost him in WAR.
Getting him on the right routine, with days off and days at DH, will be critical. Which makes Triolo a key player. It’s a unique position to be in, where you can have MLB’s best defensive 3B DH and lose very little on D.
on the days he plays dh are the days that Endy plays first base and Tank catches
and Andujar starts in right field
I think someone already mentioned hiring Treads to work with the pitchers in the off-season, it's probably a good idea. Jones needs at least a show me 3rd pitch if not a 4th. Priester has the talent and time to develop similar to Keller. Solometo and Harrington could add a tick or two to raise thier ceilings. Bubba now focused on pitching only and having the right mind set, who knows what they could unlock. Ro needs something as does Ortiz but the potential is there. Skenes might be able to find better shape to his fastball.
Keller should probably gather up the boys and do a little team building if the pirates don't want to. Some outside ideas with fresh eyes could do wonders.
If only there was a place that could teach command and control, I'm afraid that those are not so teachable other than repeating the delivery.
I'll claim this idea! If the pirates would like to send payment, they can reach me here
The thing about baseball is that there's both hitters and pitchers.
You left out veterans. That’s a third, separate category.
Ooo see this is the situation where I actually would *encourage* a guy like Jared Jones to be promoted.
The whole Roansy Conteras dog and pony show "reward" is stupid and clearly has led to zero benefit.
But Jones seems to have taken the John Baker laissez faire approach to development and dropped any pretense of developing a starter's repertoire in order to lean on his best two pitches for outs. If the Pirates are dropping their developmental responsibilities then he needs kicked in the teeth by big league competition to learn that his two-pitch approach won't fly.
Or it does and he's one of the rare combos that gets away with it and we're off and running with a long-term mid-rotation big leaguer starter. That would be better.
Thing is... that means putting Jones on the 40-man, which takes up a spot for the off-season maneuvering. He has only 3 years service time and is not rule 5 eligible so I don't see the advantage or using up a 40-man spot for him at this point.
based on past years, there aren´t many they plan to add to the 40 man roster
maybe just Ashcraft
will probably let walk Malcolm, Gutierrez, Flowers, MacGregor and Tanaj
will be dropping Bido, Bolten, Contreras, Falter, Hatch, Andre Jackson, Kranick, Stratton, Capra, Tucupita, Rivas, Joe
adding back Cutch, Oneil, VV and Perdomo
They’re bringing Joe back.
in place of Palacios, Andujar, Nick or Bae?
need to find one more starting pitcher and two more relievers
Such an argument implies that their offseason roster management will be lazer-focused on optimizing the most competitive big league team they possibly can and no, I could not get through typing that sentence without busting out laughing.
Not saying you're theoretically incorrect but you way, wayyyyy over-thinking this.
The sad thing is there’s likely never gonna be a better time to push the chips all in on creating a contending roster. A young team that has shown the ability to compete with anyone, and very little guaranteed payroll on the books. Yet, only a fool would believe they will do what it takes to properly address their roster deficiencies this winter.
Haha, I was reading your first sentence and was starting to think, what a laugh, and then saw the part after “no.”
I see your point.
Ke hayes is the best player in the league
Getting closer to the top, but let’s not go overboard.
Josh Palacios is in his 3rd year of exposure to MLB and CSN is 4 years younger than him. CSN struggled at the MLB level, and could have sulked after being sent back to AAA. Instead, he finished the year with a slash of 280/366/473/839 OPS at AAA which included 28 doubles, 15 HR, 74 RBI, and 21 of 26 SB - 80.7% success rate. I think it's time to find out about him. BTW, the 15 HR shows the raw power which often was lost on balls driven into the ground at 66% in 2021 and 54% in 2022 (FG). I would think the number of HR's is an indicator of him getting even more lift in 2023 - anyone have that number?
AJB made it work with 2 pitches and shaky control.
This is the Nolan-Ryan-Threw-1000-Pitches-And-Didn't-Get-Injured argument, though.
A handful of guys get away with it and hundreds you've never even heard of haven't.
Where Jared Jones fits amongst that sample is the question.
Correct, the vast majority of starters with 2 pitches do not make it.
Jared Jones needs to watch Spencer Strider starts until he can realize that even if he does not throw a 3rd or 4th pitch often, it still means a lot to be able to show those pitches. Another reflection would be Tyler Glasnow who we all knew could never succeed in MLB unless he developed that changeup as a 3rd pitch. I would hope Jones can find a useful 3rd pitch, but if he can locate two pitches well, he can win - Location, Location, Location!
It’s AAA, could be as simple as was told to refine those two offering, I could see dropping the CB, but why drop a change up if it’s an average or better pitch? Anyway, I wouldn’t put much stock to it.
He can probably perform OK now as a right-handed specialist out of the bullpen. Fastball/slider guys usually struggle against opposite-handed batters. Scouts have never thought much of his changeup, and it appears his efforts to develop a curveball have not produced much results. Both Keller and Priester have turned to cutters to get away from problems with changeups and to deal with lefties. Maybe Jones should try that too.
He is only 22. Probably not best to rush him up to the majors or try to limit him to a bullpen role. Scouts and observers think very highly of his fastball and slider. He has potential, and it is probably best to see what his ceiling is with another pitch or 2 in his arsenal. I think Anthony has changed my mind on Jones, and I now think another 1/2 season at least or even full season in AAA is in the best interest of Jones and the Pirates.
Good post.
I have no doubt Murph can research and write this up over the offseason way better than I can by the ole eye test, but I've followed his AAA starts and one thing that's stood out is how much lower his FB and SL whiff rates are compared to Strider's.
So, if his pitches are less effective than Strider's and he has no other weapon, we can be pretty sure his performance will be lesser as well. How much that slides is the question smarter dudes than me need to answer.
I told my son before this season started, when he was drafting his fantasy team, that Strider would lead the league in Ks (which is an important fantasy stat, I guess, in his league), but to not get too attached to Strider, because he will probably fall off a cliff in next couple of years.
I can only hope that the Pirates do not trade Termarr, Harrington, and Solometo to acquire him as his velocity is dropping and slider is losing break. Not that any Pirates GM would ever trade away such talent for a 2-pitch starter.