10 Observations: Matt Ager debut, Malcom Nunez, Nick Solak
A look at Matt Ager's pro debut, plus other notes around the system.
Murphy 4/16: Malcom Nunez has been making some solid contact as of late, hitting a pair of doubles on Wednesday. For as long as he’s been in Triple-A, it’s weird to think he’s ‘only’ 24, and will be so the entire year. Early sample size, but he’s been putting up a pretty wide reverse splits right now (OPS vs RH - .957, OPS vs LH - .531), which is opposite of where he is generally at.
With the specific position he’d likely translate to in the majors (first base), it’s a little easier to notice right now.
Murphy 4/16: He’s been getting some hits, so I decided to dig a little deeper on Liover Peguero. Exit Velocity numbers haven’t been bad (Edit: It’s only gotten better through the week), and the Z-Contact rate (88%) and whiff rates (sub 20%) are also looking fairly strong.
He’s still chasing out of the zone at a higher rate than you’d want, but at this point, sure, why not, he’s on his last option year and although it appears the team has completely given up on him, I’d be okay giving it another week or two run in the majors.
Murphy 4/16: It wasn’t the double and home run that was impressive from Jack Brannigan on Wednesday (two of the three hits that day), it was how he did it. Both times, he was able to adjust and still make great contact with off-speed/breaking pitches.
Swing and miss has always been a part of his game, but it was still good to see him adjusting to some upper-level non-fastballs and really punishing them. Also, a good sign that he’s basically become their everyday shortstop.
Murphy 4/16: Hunter Barco has had as good a start to the season as you could hope for the Altoona Curve. In three starts, spanning 13 innings, Barco has yet to allow a run and has 14 strikeouts.
He works quickly and efficiently, mixing his pitches well. I only heard a ‘94’ being called out by the broadcast, and it was as high as 97 in spring. I’d lean more towards 93-95 during the season while he’s trying to pitch deeper, but even that is a big step from the 90 he averaged during his Bradenton debut.
There have been some really good pitching performances to start the year in the system, and Barco is right there towards the top.
I can’t see a scenario where he needs to stay at Double-A for too long, but there needs to be an opportunity in Indianapolis first.
Murphy 4/16: Had a chance to talk to Lonnie White Jr. on Wednesday, and while he mentioned steals were a focus for him going into the year (six already as of I’m writing this), that kid is still built like he could have success on the gridiron still.
Lots of muscle there, and if he starts making more consistent, solid contact, the power is still there. He worked on some swing things over the offseason, so I’m not necessarily surprised that he has no extra base hits, yet, as he continues to try and apply things to in-game situations. (Edit: I guess this is the downside of waiting a whole week for these, because he immediately started to hit for some power in the few days after this, but still managed to prove my point a bit)
WTM 4/17: The Pirates’ pitching staff has put up some interesting numbers. They’re not striking out a lot of batters, as of 4/16, ranking just 23rd in K/9. It’s especially noticeable in the bullpen, where Caleb Ferguson and Dennis Santana are striking out basically nobody. That hasn’t stopped the team, though, from ranking 15th in ERA and 13th in WHIP. In case you’re wondering, they’re sixth in FIP.
It’s not batted ball luck. They stand 15th in BABIP. They are keeping runners from scoring, as their strand rate is the third highest. They’re keeping the ball in the park; their HR/FB rate is second-lowest in MLB, which explains why their xFIP is half a run higher than their FIP. They’re fourth in groundball rate, to the extent that might provide an explanation. Last year, the Pirates finished 20th in ERA, 19th in K/9, and 13th in GB%. So they’ve traded some strikeouts for ground balls and become a little better along the way, although this could all just be early-season statistical noise.
For what it’s worth, nothing in the pitch selection really explains the differences, which aren’t huge anyway. They didn’t suddenly start throwing a ton of sinkers. In fact, they threw a bit more last year. This year, they’re throwing more cutters and a lot more sliders.
WTM 4/17: The Pirates’ affiliates last year struck out at staggering rates. Going from the highest level to the lowest, the Pirates’ four full-season affiliates ranked 12th (most) of 20, 3rd of 12, 2nd of 12, and 1st of 10 in their leagues in strikeouts. That first one, Indianapolis, doesn’t mean much because many of their hitters were veteran players signed as free agents, rather than prospects who’d come up through the Pirates’ system.
Through 4/16 of this year, the full-season affiliates rank 20th of 20, 6th of 12, 3rd of 12, and 1st of 10. So the only change so far is fewer strikeouts at Indianapolis, which again has lots of veterans who arrived from elsewhere, and Altoona, which is loaded with hitters repeating the level, as hardly any hitters got promoted from Greensboro. So, not much progress on an issue that’s a massive, system-wide problem. This, of course, includes the major league “hitters,” who currently have the fifth-most strikeouts in the majors, after striking out fourth-most often last year.
Murphy 4/18: Matt Ager made his pro debut on Friday, striking out three over three innings, not allowing a hit. We saw a deep bag of pitches that he was seemingly willing to throw in any count. He had an issue putting away some hitters, jumping ahead 0-2 in one case, only to walk him.
Although his velocity isn’t the greatest, there are some traits that make it clear why he was a target for the Pirates. He was an intriguing pick to me, and there’s a chance this is a steal in the sixth round, but there are going to be some things to watch if he wants to get there.
WTM 4/20: Has anybody on Federal Street noticed Nick Solak? While the Pirates’ lineup continues to make Mario Mendoza look like A-Rod, Solak (through 4/10) has a line of 391/431/630 at Indianapolis. His K rate of 13.7% is microscopic compared to the 25% rate of the “major league” team. Solak’s not exactly an AAAA guy, either. He’s made 974 plate appearances in the majors and put up a passable 252/327/372 line, good for a 91 career OPS+. Not season-altering, obviously, but that would rank him fifth on the Pirates. Even more notably, that OPS+ would be anywhere from almost double to five times that of seven position players currently on the active roster.
NolaJeffy 4/20: Sophomore slump, junior slump, senior slump, 5th year senior slump, and so on. The Pirates have seen hitters struggle in their first full season or returning season at the affiliate they finished the previous season at, so I wanted to highlight a couple of kids that seem to be looking to kick the trend.
Lonnie White Jr. - He had just hit his second homerun in as many games when I marked down my territory, then struck out the next three at-bats. But so far on the season, his K% is down 6% in total and under 30%, with his BB% up about 6%. 7 stolen bases in 11 games after having 15 in 89 total games in 2025.
Yordany De Los Santos - Freshly turned 20 in February, he often makes a mockery of the complex league before hitting a wall in the Florida State League. So far through 13 games, he has a 106 wRC+, although the 31% K-rate is still of concern. Would love to see him get some steam.
Altoona Crew - I just wanted to put down a few names for a few different reasons. Termarr Johnson has a wRC+ at league average, but he’s making contact and getting on base at a high clip (.346 OBP) with an identical walk and k-rate (15.4%) at the moment. Similar to hopefully late bloomer Nick Cimillo, who is slashing .256/.340/.326, and you hope he finds his power to go with his on-base ability. Jase Bowen is in his third taste of Altoona, and hopefully looking to find his way out, opening up with a .778 OPS. Jack Brannigan doesn’t fall into the category of a guy repeating a level, other than an injury likely kept him from Altoona in the first place during 2024, and he’s so far having an overall quality start to Double-A. Easily one of the best upper level defenders the Pirates have at shortstop, he went into Sunday with a 127 wRC+ before going 0-fer (though no strikeouts) in the Sunday finale and finishing with a .709 OPS on the season thus far (League OPS in the Eastern League was .682 OPS prior to Baseball Reference updating with Sunday’s stats).
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Thanks for the info on Termarr Johnson and Malcom Nunez. I am hopeful they can both push their way to MLB sometime in 2026. In his 2+ years since being drafted in 2022, TJ has pushed his way to AA and could make it to AAA sometime later this season. Nunez with the Pirates since traded from the Cardinals in 2022 along with Johan Oviedo fields well at both 3B and 1B. He came with power from the Cardinals and needs to find that tool again if he wants to be considered for the RH hitting 1B option to Spencer Horwitz.
Is Solak on the 40 man? BC seems loathe to DFA anyone to make room for someone new...