Hard to understand your evaluation of Henry Davis deserving the backup Catcher role for the Pirates instead of Endy Rodriguez.
Endy can give the Pirates a switch hitter and his OPS is about 150 points higher than HD's right now. Even more important is the fact that he can play other positions well - 1B, 2B, and OF as the Pirates well know because he has played those other positions in the Pirate system.
In 2023, as a 23 year old, Endy caught 52 games for the Pirates and shared the Catching duties with Jason Delay who caught 68 games, and Austin Hedges who caught 65 games. Endy led them with a 998 Fld%. Henry appeared as a Catcher in 2 games that year during the Pirates OF experiment with him. Endy missed almost all of 2024. Henry played and caught in 34 games, 993 Fld%, but an OPS of only .454 in 122 PA for the Pirates in 2024. He started with the Pirates but then was down, and then up and down a few more times.
What do you consider a best case scenario for those two? Either Henry or Endy will be a FT C at AAA, while the other is a backup. It sounds like you're happy with Endy in Pittsburgh, also fielding other positions, and Davis back to AAA. It sounds reasonable. As long as Endy looks completely healed up and able to play most games. If not, Davis makes a better backup.
Totally off topic, but I need to find something out. Can anyone tell me where the theory of two best hitters at the top of the lineup came from? I just want a reference. I can look it up myself. But I want to read about it, and I thought someone here could point me in the right direction. I expect the same literature will also discuss the rest of the lineup and how to craft it for maximum runs scored.
Yes! The argument that your best hitters should be at the top of the lineup is supported by modern sabermetrics, particularly research from **Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin** in their book *The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball* (2006).
In traditional baseball thinking, the best overall hitters were often placed in the third or fourth spot, while the leadoff hitter was chosen more for speed and on-base skills. However, **sabermetric analysis suggests that your best hitters should hit higher in the lineup to maximize their plate appearances over the course of a season**.
### Key Points Supporting This Argument:
1. **More Plate Appearances**: The first, second, and third spots in the lineup receive the most plate appearances over a season. By placing your best hitters in these spots, you maximize their opportunities to contribute.
2. **On-Base and Power in the #2 Spot**: *The Book* suggests that the second spot is actually the most critical, as it gets plenty of at-bats in important situations. Many teams now put one of their best hitters here instead of in the traditional third or fourth slot.
3. **Avoiding "Wasted" At-Bats in the 3rd Spot**: The third hitter often comes up with two outs and nobody on in the first inning, limiting RBI opportunities. This is why some analytics-driven teams prefer their absolute best hitter to bat second rather than third.
4. **Run Expectancy Models**: Statistical models have shown that a lineup optimized for maximizing runs will have its highest OBP and SLG players near the top.
### Supporting Data:
- A study by **Mitchel Lichtman** using **Markov Chain analysis** concluded that the second and fourth spots in the lineup are the most valuable, challenging the traditional "best hitter bats third" mindset.
- Research by **Baseball Prospectus** and **FanGraphs** has reinforced the importance of putting high-OBP and high-SLG hitters at the top.
If you're looking for more sources, you can check out:
My recollection is that, statistically, the 2 and 5 spots come up most often, in that order, with runners on or RISP, forget which. Of course, once you scrap the traditional order, you’re changing the environment that produced those numbers.
Otoh, it’s impossible to dispute that each spot gets something like 17-18 more PAs than the one behind it. If you want to give those extra PAs to Pham, raise your hand.
This is something I read in the Gazette close to 20 years ago. Things may have changed quite a bit with the majority of teams buying into Sabermetrics.
No, I think this is enough to start with. I'll have to find that book. I read the Sabermetrics stuff from the 2000's that had "the best 4 bats at the top of the order and to hell with the rest of it." I think the '04(?) Red Sox did this and scored a ton of runs. I may be wrong. It's been a while since I read anything about it. I just wanted to find out where it came from, and what the data supported.
Not sure exactly where it came from, the hypothesis is " having your best hitters getting more at bats, leads to more people on base which leads to more runs" power is also a plus but they need to get on base.
Yep, and back when pitchers hit, put them 8th with a player more likely to get on base (preferably with some speed) 9th, to have greater probability that they have someone to drive in.
I listened to the most recent episode of Effectively Wild yesterday and learned this interesting piece of trivia in response to a question (Stat Blast 3) about which World Series roster totaled the most games of experience with their team (only games leading up to that World Series, not games that may have followed).
At the top is the 1956 Brooklyn Dodgers, but they lost that series. Second and tops for WS winners is the 1971 Pirates led by Clemente, Maz, Stargell, Alley, ... and in third is the 1971 Orioles. The 1971 WS is the WS (and probably always will be) that had the rosters with the most games played with their current teams (the '56 Yankees are 35th).
Be careful, WF's field is a launching pad. LF 310', LC 370', CF 400', RC 367', RF 300'.
And the ball travels well at that field. With the exception of dead center, the dimensions in L, LC, RC, and RF are very short for college aged players - more like high school dimensions. And, at this time of year ACC and Southeast Conference teams are hosting a lot of cold weather teams coming South to get in a few weeks of games. I think the Kilen kid, a MI playing for Tennessee is closing in on 10 HR's already.
I'm not sold on his power, only position player from Wake I've really been high on lately is Kurtz. That's not saying the players are bad but Kurtz was the only surefire top 5 position player.
Yep, I'm not sold on his power yet, but if he keeps it up maybe. I don't like the finish of his swing, it looks like he is try to stop his bat right after he hits the ball, like he is swinging an ax.
Nice Laurila interview of Priester, who is expected to make Boston's rotation to start the season. Probably most interesting is the following quote:
“I’ve had a lot of experience the past two years, parts of them in the big leagues, and since the transition — being traded over here — I’ve been helped a lot. I’ve been encouraged to dive into the things I’m really good at. I’ve been encouraged to not change as much. That kind of reasoning — a lot of can-dos — has resulted in some freedom on the mound. That’s where I feel I can thrive. I’m kind of seeing it all come together.”
I saw him pitch while he was with Altoona and it was frustrating that he couldn't put guys away once he got to 2 strikes. He did a great job keeping the ball on the ground, but that night too many of those grounders found holes.
I always liked him, though, and hope he finds success with Boston.
The games I saw Priester pitch in triple A, he either A) made batters look foolish with his nasty stuff or B) struggled finding the plate and was difficult to watch.
Regarding Falter, how does his elite extension alter how batters see the pitch?
Hard to understand your evaluation of Henry Davis deserving the backup Catcher role for the Pirates instead of Endy Rodriguez.
Endy can give the Pirates a switch hitter and his OPS is about 150 points higher than HD's right now. Even more important is the fact that he can play other positions well - 1B, 2B, and OF as the Pirates well know because he has played those other positions in the Pirate system.
In 2023, as a 23 year old, Endy caught 52 games for the Pirates and shared the Catching duties with Jason Delay who caught 68 games, and Austin Hedges who caught 65 games. Endy led them with a 998 Fld%. Henry appeared as a Catcher in 2 games that year during the Pirates OF experiment with him. Endy missed almost all of 2024. Henry played and caught in 34 games, 993 Fld%, but an OPS of only .454 in 122 PA for the Pirates in 2024. He started with the Pirates but then was down, and then up and down a few more times.
What do you consider a best case scenario for those two? Either Henry or Endy will be a FT C at AAA, while the other is a backup. It sounds like you're happy with Endy in Pittsburgh, also fielding other positions, and Davis back to AAA. It sounds reasonable. As long as Endy looks completely healed up and able to play most games. If not, Davis makes a better backup.
Totally off topic, but I need to find something out. Can anyone tell me where the theory of two best hitters at the top of the lineup came from? I just want a reference. I can look it up myself. But I want to read about it, and I thought someone here could point me in the right direction. I expect the same literature will also discuss the rest of the lineup and how to craft it for maximum runs scored.
Thanks!
Yes! The argument that your best hitters should be at the top of the lineup is supported by modern sabermetrics, particularly research from **Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin** in their book *The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball* (2006).
In traditional baseball thinking, the best overall hitters were often placed in the third or fourth spot, while the leadoff hitter was chosen more for speed and on-base skills. However, **sabermetric analysis suggests that your best hitters should hit higher in the lineup to maximize their plate appearances over the course of a season**.
### Key Points Supporting This Argument:
1. **More Plate Appearances**: The first, second, and third spots in the lineup receive the most plate appearances over a season. By placing your best hitters in these spots, you maximize their opportunities to contribute.
2. **On-Base and Power in the #2 Spot**: *The Book* suggests that the second spot is actually the most critical, as it gets plenty of at-bats in important situations. Many teams now put one of their best hitters here instead of in the traditional third or fourth slot.
3. **Avoiding "Wasted" At-Bats in the 3rd Spot**: The third hitter often comes up with two outs and nobody on in the first inning, limiting RBI opportunities. This is why some analytics-driven teams prefer their absolute best hitter to bat second rather than third.
4. **Run Expectancy Models**: Statistical models have shown that a lineup optimized for maximizing runs will have its highest OBP and SLG players near the top.
### Supporting Data:
- A study by **Mitchel Lichtman** using **Markov Chain analysis** concluded that the second and fourth spots in the lineup are the most valuable, challenging the traditional "best hitter bats third" mindset.
- Research by **Baseball Prospectus** and **FanGraphs** has reinforced the importance of putting high-OBP and high-SLG hitters at the top.
If you're looking for more sources, you can check out:
- [Tom Tango's Blog](http://tangotiger.net)
- [FanGraphs Articles on Batting Order](https://www.fangraphs.com/)
- [Baseball Prospectus](https://www.baseballprospectus.com/)
Would you like a deeper breakdown of lineup optimization based on these findings?
Amen! Reasons of why Cruz, Reynolds, Horwitz should be the top 3 in the lineup.
Thanks for this summary!
NMR coming out as an LLM plant after all these years. Little did you all know AI could be so dumb.
My recollection is that, statistically, the 2 and 5 spots come up most often, in that order, with runners on or RISP, forget which. Of course, once you scrap the traditional order, you’re changing the environment that produced those numbers.
Otoh, it’s impossible to dispute that each spot gets something like 17-18 more PAs than the one behind it. If you want to give those extra PAs to Pham, raise your hand.
I could be wrong, but I thought the 6th hole in the lineup comes up the most with risp.
Could be poor memory on my part.
This is something I read in the Gazette close to 20 years ago. Things may have changed quite a bit with the majority of teams buying into Sabermetrics.
It probably has with better hitter moving to leadoff and 2 position instead of the 3 and 4.
No, I think this is enough to start with. I'll have to find that book. I read the Sabermetrics stuff from the 2000's that had "the best 4 bats at the top of the order and to hell with the rest of it." I think the '04(?) Red Sox did this and scored a ton of runs. I may be wrong. It's been a while since I read anything about it. I just wanted to find out where it came from, and what the data supported.
Thanks for more than I asked for!
All hail Bobby Bragan!
Not sure exactly where it came from, the hypothesis is " having your best hitters getting more at bats, leads to more people on base which leads to more runs" power is also a plus but they need to get on base.
Also more at bats across a full the higher you are in the order.
Yep, and back when pitchers hit, put them 8th with a player more likely to get on base (preferably with some speed) 9th, to have greater probability that they have someone to drive in.
I listened to the most recent episode of Effectively Wild yesterday and learned this interesting piece of trivia in response to a question (Stat Blast 3) about which World Series roster totaled the most games of experience with their team (only games leading up to that World Series, not games that may have followed).
At the top is the 1956 Brooklyn Dodgers, but they lost that series. Second and tops for WS winners is the 1971 Pirates led by Clemente, Maz, Stargell, Alley, ... and in third is the 1971 Orioles. The 1971 WS is the WS (and probably always will be) that had the rosters with the most games played with their current teams (the '56 Yankees are 35th).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11-4K2yIP1gioaXY5f0tU8AeZbaFFp-qMU3hi1KOyIsI/edit?gid=943755514#gid=943755514
New BA mock draft has us getting Wake Forest SS Marek Houston.
He's playing really well, if the power is real it would be a good pick.
https://youtu.be/tZotmq_bHqY?si=jzBbXwKTOy8jAHs7
Be careful, WF's field is a launching pad. LF 310', LC 370', CF 400', RC 367', RF 300'.
And the ball travels well at that field. With the exception of dead center, the dimensions in L, LC, RC, and RF are very short for college aged players - more like high school dimensions. And, at this time of year ACC and Southeast Conference teams are hosting a lot of cold weather teams coming South to get in a few weeks of games. I think the Kilen kid, a MI playing for Tennessee is closing in on 10 HR's already.
It's all exit velo now, not counting stats. Will Craig selections are a thing of the past.
I'm not sold on his power, only position player from Wake I've really been high on lately is Kurtz. That's not saying the players are bad but Kurtz was the only surefire top 5 position player.
Yeah, BA had comments from an anonymous scout who pretty much said the newly found power is the difference maker.
I'm also not adverse to getting somebody closer to the bigs, although you still gotta take the best talent.
Yep, I'm not sold on his power yet, but if he keeps it up maybe. I don't like the finish of his swing, it looks like he is try to stop his bat right after he hits the ball, like he is swinging an ax.
He doesn't actually sound like a Pirates type of guy, but there's a whole college season between now and July.
Nice Laurila interview of Priester, who is expected to make Boston's rotation to start the season. Probably most interesting is the following quote:
“I’ve had a lot of experience the past two years, parts of them in the big leagues, and since the transition — being traded over here — I’ve been helped a lot. I’ve been encouraged to dive into the things I’m really good at. I’ve been encouraged to not change as much. That kind of reasoning — a lot of can-dos — has resulted in some freedom on the mound. That’s where I feel I can thrive. I’m kind of seeing it all come together.”
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-quinn-priester-is-poised-to-turn-a-corner-in-boston/
Let’s see what happens when the games count. I don’t wish him ill, but I’m happy with the trade.
to me, every pitch he throws looks like it is coming in at 75 miles per hour
very hittable
never liked the guy since the first time i saw him pitch for the pirates
I saw him pitch while he was with Altoona and it was frustrating that he couldn't put guys away once he got to 2 strikes. He did a great job keeping the ball on the ground, but that night too many of those grounders found holes.
I always liked him, though, and hope he finds success with Boston.
It’ll work out well, though, because Nick Yorke is poised for a big year in AAA.
The games I saw Priester pitch in triple A, he either A) made batters look foolish with his nasty stuff or B) struggled finding the plate and was difficult to watch.
Triple like 👍
Another int’l signing: 6’5” RHP Jose Rondon.
The is one of my favorite segments that you all do, thanks for sharing!
Double like